Amorfatyi

A unique random variable, in the middle-earth

[Amorfatyi @amorfatyi]

Be a brave hobbit, our choices matter, in times of this...
"There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you were also meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought."

[Amorfatyi @amorfatyi]

🤣

[John Wang @j0hnwang]

so is everyone going to the knicks parade just unemployed or what

[Amorfatyi @amorfatyi]

Before it Happens

[Probly @ProblyHQ]

https://t.co/C49ypC4xeP

[Probly @ProblyHQ]

Italy watching everyone else book their flights for 2026

[Amorfatyi @amorfatyi]

How do ya like this painting

[Amorfatyi @amorfatyi]

@jenniekusu 1

[Polymarket Sports @PolymarketSport]

🚨BREAKING: EA Sports’ simulation has predicted that Spain will win the 2026 World Cup.

They have correctly predicted the last four World Cup winners IN A ROW:

2022: Argentina 🏆
2018: France 🏆
2014: Germany 🏆
2010: Spain 🏆

[Amorfatyi @amorfatyi]

Never do anything out of fear.

[good @thenarrator]

0dte options now make up 59% of all SPX volume and prediction markets crossed $150B in lifetime trades

these aren’t separate stories, finance is collapsing every time horizon it can

the asset class that resolves fastest, wins.

[Lauris @lzminsky]

thank you for the inbound.

also fyi, both Polymarket and Kalshi are working directly with some teams on index and benchmark design (not public, but privately confirmed).

for anyone trying to get into this race right now, I would caution.. well, caution.

[Amorfatyi @amorfatyi]

yeah wanna trade my fav drama

[Daria | Growth 🇰🇷 @0xHanMoon]

because k-pop is our second funnest thing
first - stocks (closest to gambling we are allowed to do)

[Amorfatyi @amorfatyi]

@Marko_Poly Long live Bayesian

[Amorfatyi @amorfatyi]

Approaching a stage in life where nothing really matters just sing in the brain all day, ah I hate to be a grownup

[Amorfatyi @amorfatyi]

@mesky_ Amazing! Just so clearly stated my long inner instinct yet cannot articulate. It’s not the exact battle field as current prediction markets

[Mesky | Delpho @mesky_]

https://t.co/HWPAAqBjIs

[Amorfatyi @amorfatyi]

Again

[Amorfatyi @amorfatyi]

product reflects your philosophy, it is who you are. So great people build great products, not necessarily the most popular or profitable. It is just great.

[Nick Tomaino @NTmoney]

https://t.co/CCtUASCIQV

[Amorfatyi @amorfatyi]

agree

[Jeff Park @dgt10011]

the new product category that is most naturally adjacent to events-based contracts for prediction markets to go after is actually not perps

it's 0DTE options

few

[Jeff Park @dgt10011]

https://t.co/6h6sw9lJYQ

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

People often make the mistake of focusing on what should be done while neglecting the more important question of who should be given the responsibility for determining what should be done. That's backward. When you know what you need in a person to do the job well and you know what the person you're putting into it is like, you can pretty well visualize how things will go. #principleoftheday

[Nick Tomaino @NTmoney]

Tribalism will never go away. It’s human nature

But humans WILL continue to become more aware. It’s what separates us from AI

If your bag and/or identity is tied to a position, that’s OK. That’s being human

But we CAN do a better job of being more aware

This is water