Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson

I'm an econometrician/biostatistician who explores the causes of various phenomena using a wide variety of statistical techniques.

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

@DocG1111 @tompatterson61 @BigPopz72 Nope. Although crowds are surprisingly inactive facing such situations; I believe this is documented by psychologists. It would be great if the two involved would weigh in here, or witnesses would.

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

It meets the definition of civil war for me using the definition of the Correlates of War, which has morphed into an interstate war.

(1) military action internal to the metropole of the state system member; ✅ Kiev/Galicia vs. Donetsk/Luhansk
(2) the active participation of the national government; ✅ Turchynov
(3) effective resistance by both sides; ✅ continued resistance since Maidan
(4) a total of at least 1,000 battle-deaths during each year of the war. ✅~10'000+ battle deaths from the start of the conflict in April 2014 up until December 31, 2021.

This civil war was predicted 30 years ago: "A second and more likely possibility is that Ukraine could split along its fault line into two separate entities, the eastern of which would merge with Russia."

Huntington, S. P. (1996). The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. Simon & Schuster, pp. 167–168.

Sarkees, M. R. (2010). The COW typology of war: Defining and categorizing wars (Version 4 of the data). Correlates of War Project. https://t.co/mLBI4QTSAP

Sarkees, M. R., & Wayman, F. W. (2010). Resort to war: 1816–2007. CQ Press.

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

@thomas_s_mckee @iluminatibot Geneva is nicer, I assure you, even if it is a ghetto by German Swiss standards. You wouldn't want those diplomats not being able to buy a @patekphillipe now would you?

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

Most countries have said this during a war about their enemies; it's hard to have a clinical view. Americans called Japanese insects, which had to be exterminated, and now they are best trading partners and Americans respect and are steeped in the mythos of Japanese culture; Japanese do baseball arguably better than the Americans now; there is no shortage of Japanese students at American universities.

It's not like Russia is saying to the Ukrainians, "Hey we're really sorry we have to do this, but we can't allow a NATO army on our Southern flank and Russian speakers to be marginalized. We had to kick Turkish ass, then France and England's, and Hitler's here too -- it's nothing personal."

To which no Ukrainian says, "We understand and validate your fears and concerns, but we still have to defend our people and the integrity of our state. We think it's an important principle. We don't hate you, but your behaviour is not acceptable.

No, you find Russians and Ukrainians talking trash and giving insult to each other non-stop here on X in the most passionate and visceral way. This is understandable.

I would pray that Russian and Ukrainian soldiers acquit themselves honourably and humanely on the battlefield even while doing the nasty business of a heartless states that demand their allegiance.

And after that bloody business is done, to be able to bind up their nations' wounds, to care for those who shall have borne the battle and for the widows and orphans so that they may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among themselves and with all nations.

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

@eagleswhat1 @Wisdom_HQ The Theodore A. Postol guy says none of the planes are really stealth, there are just some tradeoffs with the radars used to find them.

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

@xwb_kasmi @Wisdom_HQ I would presume it to be cheaper. But so far even the US hasn't established air supremacy over Iran to bring out the cheap dumb bombs or B-52s, and after 4 years of targeting the air defence, I still haven't seen the Russians use any major strategic bombing.

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

I think the Ukrainians have integrated well considering Ukraine is about 70% similar to Polish and it was in part a former province of Poland. And an influx of population always generates absolute economic activity, but whether this is a marginal boon or burden depends on the composition and complementarity to the extant workforce.

Talking about the economics is gauche considering disrupted lives are at stake, and many men are being forcibly conscripted to kill their compatriots and Russians.

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

Happened to me in Australia once too outside of Melbourne. You miss a sign or exit, and they got you with the new surveillance systems, every infraction, every behaviour monitored in excruciating detail until you submit, conform, and execute perfectly to become the model citizen that never disobeys.

The principle used to be if you created a problem, or got caught, you were punished. The principle now is you will be constantly monitored on your phone, in public, with your accounts and your deviances will be recorded and held against you.

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

@MyLordBebo You can also just wear airpods...

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

Porsche fan here: The brand has moved too far up-market, and its starting to become a luxury brand rather than an affordable luxury brand.

A base targa (my favourite) is pushing EUR 224'000! It's not even much faster than a turbo targa from the 1980s would push 273 km/h (not that that is the only metric). The Macan can be dropped to keep the trusty and beloved Cayenne. The Taycan can stay the sedan, but the panamera would be better as a wagon and drop the sedan variants.

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

@saylordocs It's not a scam, it's a soft-tax.

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

@EUCouncil Could the EU first work on getting food prices back to their 2020 levels before increasing costs even more?

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

In Lithuania, I eat this:

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

Snus is completely legal and regulated in Switzerland. You can freely purchase and consume it, as it is classified similarly to cigarettes. But yes, I do think it's a valuable tool for smokers; inhaling carcinogens 20x a day can't be worse than solvated nicotine. People are adults.

I didn't even know this was illegal in many places, or that I could be fined by importing it (not that I use it).

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

The commentator nonchalantly, saying, "That's called whoopin' your ass." while watching this craziness is so smooth and cool. The commentator even tried to warn the guy, and give advice to the shop-keep about the police. I didn't notice that the shop-keep directs his blows to the butt to deliver a spanking.

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

Even a Swiss Euro-skeptic like me has to concede it has benefits, so I would be in the 72% despite not wanting Switzerland to join. We all benefit from not being at war like the continent was perpetually until 1991.

I think the question is more now where the EU is going to draw the line in terms of how many resources it will get to control and take from members, and how much power it will exercise over things like Internet ID. How much democracy will be allowed. Currently what I see is a supranational élite grabbing power methodically without any democratic control besides a nominal and impotent parliament.

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

@OrthoTater @pichicuko @JohannaNyman5 I think it's only a couple of short-range missiles from Kaliningrad, but I hate to think about a general thermo-nuclear war between Russia and NATO.

NATO can't conquer Russia and Russia can't conquer Europe; I hope this fact would prevent a nuclear exchange.

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

Weekly food requirement, 14'700 kCal; $340 buys currently roughly:

Eggs: 145,040 kCal
Bread: 218,160 kCal
Chicken: 106,021 kCal
Milk: 206'640 kCal
Tomatos: 14,300 kCal

So yes, this food bill is roughly correct if someone were to consume 174.4 lbs of tomatoes, otherwise it's enough to subsist for 14 weeks on bread.

[Dr. sc. ETH Mark James Thompson @amuraivel]

@mazeltov220288 @DakdaR22 @kajakallas True, but if the globe is unwilling to build a coalition like in Gulf War 1 or WWI/II, it's the dead letter of the law. Enough countries hold Ukraine to be unimportant vs. the law, or to be a civil war, or just don't want to get smashed between the tectonic fault of RUS/NATO.