everyone comparing $SNAP specs to metas reality labs money pit is missing it. meta burned $88B building hardware nobody asked for. snap is shipping enterprise AR with nvidia and salesforce already integrated and getting valued at near all time lows. one of these is a bet, the other is a bargain
@WatcherGuru 750 billion sounds apocalyptic until you remember the US market is ~60 trillion. thats a 1.2% move, basically a tuesday. and nothing got "wiped out", market cap isnt cash that burns, its just the last agreed price repricing lower. big number, huge denominator
notable: while money quietly rotates into defensives, someone just dropped $17m on 2027 $CRWV calls. coreweave is the neocloud trade in its purest form, debt funded GPUs, revenue concentrated in a few hyperscalers. max torque if AI capex holds, zero margin if it blinks
Someone just bought $17.05 million of CoreWeave, $CRWV, calls.
Contract: $85 calls expiring March 19, 2027
Size: 25,000 contracts at about $6.82 each
Swept across exchanges and bought mostly at the ask, a sign of urgency
Volume about 15 times open interest, meaning this is likely a fresh position
Breakeven: about $91.82 by expiration
A separate $10.5 million sweep on the same contract was also followed by a floor trade, adding to the conviction.
It’s the second massive CoreWeave call trade in two days, after a $14.9 million trade in $80 calls yesterday, and comes after JPMorgan said fears about the company’s debt are likely overdone.
My takeaway: $RBLX can turn around if better monetization produces stronger cash flow per share.
October 29 earnings are the next checkpoint.
NFA
Follow if you want my next $RBLX update.
My 12-month scenarios:
Base: $71 (+36%)
Upside: $103 (+97%)
Downside: $34 (-35%)
Returns use the $52.35 Oct. 20 close.
The upside needs stronger earnings and a higher multiple. Weak monetization or more cost pressure would challenge the thesis.
@Jake__Wujastyk the mag 7 all report over the next two weeks, thats ~40% of the index printing in a handful of days. the rotation into defensives right now is the front run. you de risk into the one event that can actually move the whole market, not after it