IT Professional for over 3 decades. Active investor, focusing on the fundamentals. “To successfully trade in the micro, you must first understand the macro.”
Some stocks double, pause for a moment, then double again.
That tight little pause has a name, and it is one of the most powerful patterns in the market.
Spot it wrong and you buy a trap.
Spot it right and you catch a runner.
Here's what separates the real one from the fake:
I truly despise Bill Maher, but he actually is doing the American people a true service by reminding us exactly how good we actually have it, compared to the rest of the world! It took our Awesome POTUS to bring it forward, but Bill, for once brings light instead of Bull Shit!
Day 312: I think almost everyone celebrates the wrong thing in investing.
People celebrate being right.
The market celebrates something completely different.
Day 310: I turned 54 yesterday. If I could go back and give my 34-year-old self 5 rules, they would not be the rules I expected.
The biggest compounding machines in my life didn’t turn out to be just stocks.
They turned out to be:
1. health
2. marriage
3. kids
4. surviving long enough to catch the right investments
and 5. finally becoming unapologetic about who you are
Spotting these signatures is the easy part.
Knowing which stock, when to enter, how much to risk, and when to walk away — that's the system.
That's what I teach.
Follow @HB_Stocks for more.
PDF course: https://t.co/hwE7KDVmSh
Video course: https://t.co/Y26Y6rXqNd
No tips. No targets. Just the process.
Nuclear is one catalyst away from going parabola.
Planning to buy MORE throughout the next few weeks with the subs if the opportunity presents itself.
$OKLO, $NNE, $SMR, $LEU
The AI supercycle will last 15 years. We're in year 3.
Most investors are still buying Phase 1 names while the real money is already rotating into Phase 3.
I mapped the entire cycle into 4 phases with the tickers that matter at each stage:
The AI supercycle is the biggest investment theme of our generation. Bigger than mobile. Bigger than cloud. A 15 year structural shift that will reshape every sector of the global economy. Hyperscalers just committed $725 billion in capex for 2026, nearly doubling last year. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta each spending over $100 billion individually.
This is not speculation. I've mapped the entire supercycle into four phases so you know exactly where we are and where the asymmetric opportunities sit.
🔴 Phase 1: Already Ran (2023 to 2025)
The foundation layer is complete. $AMD ran 78% in 2025, $NVDA 39%, and $INTC just posted a blowout Q1 that sent the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index above 10,000 for the first time. Chips still power every phase but the generational entries are gone and risk/reward has compressed.
- $NVDA, $AMD, $ARM, $INTC, $AVGO, $MU, $GLW
- Semiconductors, Memory & Storage,Photonics/Optics
- Foundation complete. Still growing but priced for it.
🟠 Phase 2: Peak Buildout (2025 to 2027)
The phase most investors just woke up to. $CEG acquired Calpine to become the largest U.S. private power producer at 55 GW. $GEV up over 200% in a year. $VRT co engineering cooling for NVIDIA's Rubin architecture. $GLW up 74% YTD on optical fiber demand. Nuclear SMRs are the breakout with $OKLO, $SMR, and $BWXT positioning to power data centers directly. Still upside but the obvious names have moved.
- $CEG, $GEV, $VRT, $VST, $TLN, $ANET, $GLW, $MOD, $EQIX $OKLO, $SMR, $BWXT, $NNE
- Power/Grid, Cooling, Networking, Nuclear/SMR Peak buildout.
- Nuclear SMRs are the sleeper.
🟡 Phase 3: The Positioning Window (2026 to 2028)
Where AI escapes the data center and enters the physical world. Most will be late. Tesla converting Fremont to Optimus production, $25B capex, mass production targeted H2 2026. Rocket Lab posted record $602M revenue with $1.85B backlog. $LUNR up 47% YTD with $943M in contracts. $KTOS Valkyrie drone selected for the Marine Corps. The window to position is open right now.
- $TSLA, $RKLB, $LUNR, $KTOS, $AVAV, $PATH, $ISRG $MP, $FCX, $ALB, $ASTS
- Robotics/Autonomy, Space/Defense/Drones, Rare Earths
- This is where the asymmetric risk/reward lives.
🟢 Phase 4: Final Frontier (2028+)
The endgame. Microsoft capex $190B. Alphabet $190B. Amazon $200B. Meta $145B. Google Cloud backlog past $460B. They're building the rails for AI software dominance and AGI. Quantum still early but $IONQ and D Wave are laying groundwork. The platforms that control the software layer win the entire supercycle.
- $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META, $ORCL, $IONQ
- AI Software Dominance, AGI Infrastructure Decade long thesis.
- Accumulate on weakness.
💊 Key Takeaway
- Phase 2 is confirmed ($725B hyperscaler capex)
- Phase 3 is where the smart money positions nowRobotics, space, defense, nuclear
- SMR are the 2026 to 2028 trades
- Most will rotate into these names 12 months too late
15 year supercycle. Not a trade. Phase 1 ran. Phase 2 is priced. Phase 3 is where you want to be.
Tom Lee says the May/June SPY crash will feel like hell, but you just buy the dip for SPY target $770+
Here's exactly what's coming from @fundstrat:
1/ The Timeline
New Fed chair confirmation is starting NOW.
Kevin Warsh. Senate floor vote could come 50-70 days after committee. That puts a new Fed chair in place by June-July 2026.
2/ History doesn't lie and it's horrifying
"10 of 13 Fed chairs had a drawdown of more than 10% in the first year. So I think it's more the rule than the exception that we're going to get a drawdown." says Tom Lee
Since 1930, the SPY has logged average drawdowns of 5%, 12%, and 16% over the 1-, 3-, and 6-month periods after a new Fed chief took the helm all larger than the typical peak-to-trough drop in a randomly selected year, per Barclays.
This isn't a black swan. It's a pattern.
3/ The Road Map
"We originally said that the market could get towards 7,300. And it looks like we're on a path towards that. We're well over 7,000. And then we'll have a decline that will feel like a bear market. Perhaps it's because of the market testing new Fed chair." — Tom Lee
The data backing this: The median intra-year drawdown from an all-time high in the SPT since 1980 is 10.4%. Statistically, there's a 50% chance the index drops 10% or more at some point in 2026.
Feel like a bear market = -15% to -20% easily on the table.
4/ But Mag 7, crypto, and software are ALREADY bleeding
"Keep in mind, a lot of the markets have already had a drawdown in the Mag 7, crypto, and software."— Tom Lee
The broad index hasn't felt it yet. Rotation is a warning shot, not a safety net.
5/ Then… the rally of a lifetime
"I think a rally follows because fundamentals are strengthening maybe one of the strongest rallies we'll see in our lifetime."— Tom Lee
Since 1980, the average intra-year drawdown has been over 14% yet the SPY has still averaged 10.7% annual gains during that same period. Double-digit drops have historically come with double-digit annual gains.
The flush is the setup.
6/ His final warning:
"Just a reminder just don't time the market, even if you're tempted to." says Tom Lee
So this is the full sequence:SPY → 7,300 than New Fed chair → 10-16% drawdown then rally of our lifetime
Hacking Silicon Valley – Part 2: Surveillance Capitalism & AI Control System Explained**
In Part 2 of *Hacking Silicon Valley*, Taylor DeClue of *Tailored Healing TV* interviews security advisor and app and platform developer Rex M. Lee, who delivers a rare insider breakdown of how Surveillance Capitalism and the AI Quantum Algorithmic Control System—what he calls *The Silicon Valley Matrix*—actually work.
https://t.co/kj9IFOADrX