Humble Analyst

Value Buyer. Certified Research Analyst. SEBI Unregistered. A student of the markets. #MarketResearch

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

Pls note that none of my posts related to any of the stocks are for trading/investing purposes.

I post these names here for studying valuations only.

This platform has enriched my knowledge in terms of investing.

So I consider it my duty to give back to this community.

[Umashankar Singh उमाशंकर सिंह @umashankarsingh]

अमेरिका ने भारत को Priority Watch List में डाला

इस साल की प्रायोरिटी वॉच लिस्ट में शामिल छह देशों में भारत के अलावा चिली, चीन, इंडोनेशिया, रूस और वेनेज़ुएला हैं।

प्रायोरिटी वॉच लिस्ट में किसी देश को डाले जाने का मतलब : यह उस देश के IP क़ानूनों, एनफोर्समेंट, या US राइट्स होल्डर्स जैसे, पेटेंट, कॉपीराइट, ट्रेडमार्क, ट्रेड सीक्रेट्स के लिए मार्केट एक्सेस को लेकर गंभीर चिंताओं का संकेत देता है।

[anshuman tiwari @anshuman1tiwari]

#thebottomline
The Ceasefire That Isn't One

Two weeks. Five unresolved questions. One word missing from the English text.

How it happened — and how thin the ice is !

At 6:32pm Eastern on April 7 — ninety minutes before his own deadline to destroy Iranian civilisation — Trump posted on Truth Social that the US had agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Iran's 10-point proposal was called "a workable basis on which to negotiate." US and Israeli bombing suspended for two weeks, subject to Iran agreeing to the "COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING" of the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil futures fell more than 13%. Markets celebrated.
The financial system bought the headline. Whether the headline is the whole story is the only question that matters this morning.

The five structural problems

1. Iran's Hormuz "opening" is not an opening.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed safe passage through Hormuz "via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations."

Iran and Oman plan to charge transit fees for vessels during the two-week ceasefire, earmarked for reconstruction, according to Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency.

The IRGC toll booth isn't dismantled. It's reopened under ceasefire cover — with a co-signatory now. The strait isn't free. It's got a two-week promotional rate.

Lloyd's Market Association said it's "highly unlikely that trade into the Gulf will simply resume. The region remains at heightened risk with none of the underlying tensions resolved."

Shipping insurers won't follow the headline. They'll follow the risk.

2. One word went missing from the English text.

In the Persian version of Iran's 10-point ceasefire plan, the phrase "acceptance of enrichment" appeared regarding uranium. That phrase was missing from English versions shared by Iranian diplomats with journalists.

Trump later called the plan "fraudulent" witho
ut elaborating. The most consequential single issue of the entire war — Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, which the IAEA confirmed survived the bombing — has a different legal status in Farsi than in English. Islamabad on Friday begins with that asymmetry baked into the foundation.

3. Lebanon is not in the ceasefire. Except when it is.

Pakistan's prime minister said the ceasefire covers Lebanon. Netanyahu said it does not.
Israel continued air and ground operations in Lebanon on Wednesday morning.

Iran's conditions explicitly included an end to Lebanese hostilities. A ceasefire Iran signed on the understanding that Lebanon was included, and which Israel is executing on the understanding that it isn't, is not a ceasefire. It's a terminological time bomb with a two-week fuse.

4. The IRGC never formally agreed.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council accepted. Its statement read: "This does not signify the termination of the war. Our hands remain upon the trigger."

Throughout the 40-day war, individual IRGC commanders — not political leadership — made targeting decisions. Missile alerts sounded in Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait in the hours after the ceasefire was announced.

The political class signed. The military class hasn't confirmed it got the memo.

5. Trump has already undermined it.

Trump told AFP that Iran's uranium would be "perfectly taken care of" following the ceasefire. He told CNN the strait would be "jointly controlled — me and the Ayatollah." He told Truth Social it would be the "Golden Age of the Middle East."
Iran's foreign ministry has watched Trump declare victory, describe the deal, and characterise Iran's nuclear programme's future in three separate ways in twelve hours. Tehran has learned that what Trump says publicly and what the agreement contains are different documents.

What the two weeks actually are

Iranian mediators were explicit before the deal: they don't want "a Gaza or Lebanon situation — where there is a ceasefire on paper but where the US and Israel can attack again whenever they want."

This ceasefire is on paper. The 2025 twelve-day war ceasefire held eight months before collapsing into this conflict. The underlying demands — permanent peace versus verified denuclearisation, Hormuz sovereignty versus free passage, Lebanon inclusion versus Israeli carve-out — haven't moved.

Islamabad on Friday begins negotiations on a framework that both sides have publicly declared incompatible, in a language where one key phrase exists in Persian but not English.

Vance called it a "fragile truce" and warned Iran that Trump is "not one to mess around."

That's the most accurate description of this ceasefire offered by anyone in the last 24 hours. Fragile.

Not a resolution. A pause between two parties who don't trust the same piece of paper — and who've already demonstrated, twice, that they will bomb during negotiations.

Start the clock. Again.
#IranWar‌

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

2/2
Accumulation is inching up in select sectors.

Price action is still more volatile for short term traders as Vix is on the higher side. Big Opportunity for investors.

Keenly looking for March 2026 earnings in NIFTY 100 & NIFTY 200 names for further conviction.

Stay Tuned.

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

1/2
NIFTY & its corresponding indices r exactly where they need to be.

Technically, the majority of the equity universe is testing origin-based buying levels (accumulation lows), similar to NIFTY.

We may see a stable bounce once macro conditions improve.

[Gautam Baid @Gautam__Baid]

We are now entering the final capitulation phase of the bear market in India which began in September 2024.

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

Poor earnings show by Ola.
Multiple target price downgrades are heard in the street.

Let's wait for and study further management guidance followed by upcoming quarterly earnings in this script.

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

Waiting patiently for the Dec. 2025 qtr. earnings in Ola Electric

Company is already having its back against the wall...

Let's track together what's in store for #olaelectric

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

Gems and Jewellery Sector is in upswing... Hopefully you have taken the right decision to add in the last leg of dip.

Trend confirmation expected soon

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

A number of sector triggers in the Gems and Jewellery sector if I am reading this correctly.
Let's be watchful here

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

Waiting patiently for the Dec. 2025 qtr. earnings in Ola Electric

Company is already having its back against the wall...

Let's track together what's in store for #olaelectric

[anshuman tiwari @anshuman1tiwari]

India’s $500B “Buy American” pledge is a massive commitment against its current $45B annual imports from the US. Indian Industries await clarity on timelines; such scale could distort procurement and crowd out other global suppliers. #indiaustradedeal

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

The Economic Survey emphasizes that India must cultivate national capabilities and economic sovereignty. Global shifts, including protectionism and technology controls, necessitate continuous adaptation and domestic capacity building. 🌍💡📈

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

In a world of swirling currents, my gaze falls upon this page, where words paint a vision of macro stability. It's a testament to the quiet strength that blossoms amidst global volatility. 🌍✨📰

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

Business update in VPRPL

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

While price has moderated in VPRPL, value is what we seek.

I sense the institutional demand may show interest in this name with the time.

Fund houses might be keen to track the fundamentals now.

Now I am intersted in the earnings and mgmt. outlook for the next few quarters.

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

Institutional volumes seen in VPRPL today.
A number of issues needed to be addressed by the management.

Will wait for the next quarter earnings in this script to assess further.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Fed Chair Powell responds after Federal prosecutors open a criminal investigation into him:

“The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Fed setting rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President,” he says.

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

Gems and Jewellery sector 💣💣💣

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

A number of sector triggers in the Gems and Jewellery sector if I am reading this correctly.
Let's be watchful here

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

Media sector is in the news

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

2/2
Media sector:
Fact-Checking Initiatives – credibility building, verification desks

Cost Optimization – lean newsrooms, automation, AI tools

Multi-Skilled Workforce – journalists as content creators

Do study this sector if you correlate with these inputs.

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

1/2
Indian media sector now:
1. Digital-First Strategy – focus on websites, apps, social media
2. OTT & Web Content – originals, short videos, regional content
3. Data-Driven Journalism – analytics, audience insights
4. SM Optimization – reels, shorts, platform-specific content

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

Indian media sector in past few yrs:
1. Digital disruption n declining print readership
2. Revenue pressure due to falling advertising income
3. Intense competition from OTT platforms n global players
4. Rising operational costs n shrinking profit margins
5. Credibility issues

[Humble Analyst @analyst_humble]

We are seeing a number of positive news flows for Meesho in the last few days but institutional demand has already hinted the same during the IPO bidding.

Let's track this Meesho story further...

[CNBC-TV18 @CNBCTV18Live]

#CNBCTV18Market | #UBS On #Meesho: Initiate buy call, target price at ₹220/sh, co operates an asset-light, -ve working capital biz model, ensuring +ve cash flows unlike other internet cos. NMV is estimated to grow at a 30% CAGR over FY25-30, contribution margin & adjusted EBITDA margin reaching 6.8% & 3.2% of NMV by #FY30