Analytics With Avery

Computer science student exploring hockey analytics & data science. NHL player cards and blogs at

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

With less than 24 hours to go before free agency begins, I've made some big updates to my NHL player cards! The biggest is that I've implemented a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) model, which accounts for the quality of competition players face and the teammates they play with. This model is used for the offensive, defensive, and special team scores, with the sum of these (plus 5v5 and 4v5 finishing) making up the total/overall WAR, which is now also displayed on the cards.

I also have finally built my own expected goals (xG) model instead of relying on NaturalStatTrick's xG data. I now use it everywhere I previously used NST's data for. Note that I have not updated my goalie cards yet, but plan to do so before the upcoming season starts.

New card on the left, old card on the right.

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

Steve Yzerman is stepping down as General Manager of the Detroit Red Wings and will transition into an advisory role. The Red Wings legend didn't achieve the results he was hoping for as GM, with Detroit failing to make the playoffs in every season since he took over in 2019. It's nice to see him remain with the organization for legacy's sake, but it's hard to deny that the Red Wings needed a shake-up.

[Elliotte Friedman @FriedgeHNIC]

In a major development, the Red Wings announce Steve Yzerman is stepping down as the team’s head of Hockey Operations and becoming an advisor to Chris Ilitch.

A search for the team’s next President/GM is underway

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

Looking at which specific words appear most often in NHL interviews (filtering out stopwords like "the", "is", "um", etc.), unsurprisingly, "game" comes out on top, with "play" and "team" as the next two most common.

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

With the NHL offseason slowing down, I wanted to share some of what I've been working on this summer as an Undergraduate Research Intern. I've been using natural language processing and sentiment analysis to analyze NHL pregame and postgame interviews, and one pattern that's stood out so far is that head coaches are typically the most neutral speakers compared to players, which definitely tracks.

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

I ran the numbers on the most common phrases in NHL interviews. Apparently, players think we already know everything.

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

The Anaheim Ducks have matched the offer sheet. I think this was there best move as losing a player of Carlsson’s calibre would be a devastating loss for the franchise.

Also, sorry that I've been missing some card posts for recent signings. I've been having an issue with my data collection, which has caused problems with the results. I’m not going to post anything that I’m not confident in.

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

Wow! The Philadelphia Flyers have signed forward Leo Carlsson to a 5x$18M offer sheet. Carlsson is a dynamic young center whom I know my card heavily underrates. This deal would make Carlsson the highest-paid player in the league. If the Ducks GM Pat Verbeek said he would match any offer sheet thrown at Carlsson, so let's see if he's true to his word. If they don't match, they will receive four first-round picks from Philadelphia.

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

The Anaheim Ducks are signing defenseman Pavel Mintyukov to a 5x$7.2M deal. My model is pretty low on Mintyukov. It recognizes his offensive skill, but his defensive play holds his overall value back. I think this contract is a bit much based on what he's shown so far, but there's no doubt he has plenty of upside, and he's still just 22 years old.

[PuckPedia @PuckPedia]

The #flytogether are expected to sign RFA Mintyukov to 5 year $7.2M cap hit deal. Deal has not yet been formally completed.

2 teams were prepared to sign Mintyukov to an offer sheet before he agreed to terms with ANA

1st to report on terms @frank_seravalli

Rep’d by @HockeyAgent1 & Vlad Spektor @GoldStarHockey

https://t.co/c0al9gBzLc

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

The Minnesota Wild have signed defenseman Daemon Hunt to a 1x$0.9M deal. Hunt is a left-handed depth defenseman.

[Michael Russo @RussoHockey]

#mnwild and Daemon Hunt close to agreeing on a new contract in advance of him having to decide to file for arbitration this afternoon

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

The Edmonton Oilers have signed defenseman Spencer Stastney to a 1x$1.525M deal. Stastney is a third-pairing, left-shot defenseman. This is a solid depth signing for the Oilers' blue line.

[David Pagnotta @TheFourthPeriod]

Hearing the Oilers have signed D Spencer Stastney to a 1-year, $1.525M contract.

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

The Nashville Predators have signed forward Mavrik Bourque to a 6x$5.5M deal. Bourque is a young two-way center with strong top-six upside. I think this is a great deal for Nashville.

[Renaud Lavoie @RLavoieTVA]

Mavrik Bourque 6 X $5.5M @PredsNHL @TVASports

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

The Utah Mammoth have signed defenseman Andrew Peeke to a 1x$1.0M deal. Peeke is a big right-handed defenseman who is physical but doesn't have the best all-around numbers.

[Chris Johnston @reporterchris]

Andrew Peeke is signing a one-year deal with Utah worth $1M

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

The Pittsburgh Penguins have signed forward Hendrix Lapierre to a 2x$1.3M deal. Lapierre is a depth forward that the Penguins acquired in a trade with Washington. His numbers have been mediocre so far, but there might still be some potential for the former first-round pick (22nd overall in 2020).

[Pittsburgh Penguins @penguins]

The Penguins have signed forward Hendrix Lapierre to a two-year contract.

Details: https://t.co/WCzAYKWQEc

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

The Toronto Maple Leafs have signed defenseman Emil Andrae to a 2x$1.55M deal. Andrae is a young defenseman who is on the smaller side, only 5'9", but has had some decent numbers with the Flyers.

[David Pagnotta @TheFourthPeriod]

Leafs sign RFA D Emil Andrae to a two-year contract.

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

The Edmonton Oilers have signed defenseman Shakir Mukhamadullin to a 2x$1.75M deal. Mukhamadullin is a young, third-pairing defenseman who was recently acquired by Edmonton in the Darnell Nurse trade.

[David Pagnotta @TheFourthPeriod]

Oilers have signed newly-acquired RFA LD Shakir Mukhamadullin to a 2-year, $3.5M contract ($1.75M AAV)

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

Wow! The Philadelphia Flyers have signed forward Leo Carlsson to a 5x$18M offer sheet. Carlsson is a dynamic young center whom I know my card heavily underrates. This deal would make Carlsson the highest-paid player in the league. If the Ducks GM Pat Verbeek said he would match any offer sheet thrown at Carlsson, so let's see if he's true to his word. If they don't match, they will receive four first-round picks from Philadelphia.

[Elliotte Friedman @FriedgeHNIC]

The Flyers have done a 5 x$18M offer sheet for Leo Carlsson

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

The Dallas Stars have signed forward Jamie Benn to a 1x$0.85M (with bonuses) extension. Benn is an offensive winger who plays lower in the lineup. At his age, 37, his play isn't what it once was, but he's still a useful player, especially at a $0.85M cap hit.

[PuckPedia @PuckPedia]

Jamie Benn signs 1 year deal #TexasHockey

$850K Salary
$1.15M in Perf Bonuses: $200K @ 10 GP, 20 GP, 40 GP, $150K make playoffs, $100K win each round

Cap Hit $850K, AAV $2M

Rep'd by @baynep Apollo

https://t.co/wHeHoGOkaT

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

The New Jersey Devils have signed goalie David Rittich to a 1x$1.0M deal. Rittich has had some up-and-down seasons, but should provide some goalie depth, with him and Nico Daws battling for the backup role behind Jake Allen.

[PuckPedia @PuckPedia]

Rittich deal with #NJDevils is 1 year $1M

1-way, does not include any trade protection

Rep'd by Craig Oster @TheHockeyAgency
https://t.co/STut5NQOEq

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

The Montreal Canadiens have signed goalie Jakub Dobes to a 3x$5.358M extension. Dobes is a young goaltender at the beginning of his NHL career, and he's gotten off to a strong start. If he continues to play the way he has so far, this should be a good deal for Montreal.

[Frank Seravalli @frank_seravalli]

Jakub Dobes has signed a three-year extension with #GoHabsGo north of $16 million. AAV is $5,357,575.

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

The Columbus Blue Jackets have signed defenseman Erik Gudbranson to a 1x$1.75M extension. Gudbranson is a big third-pairing defenseman who had pretty rough numbers last year. He also has an extensive history of injuries and only played a total of 53 games over the past two seasons combined.

[Aaron Portzline @Aportzline]

#CBJ Erik Gudbranson signed a one-year deal worth $1.75M

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

The Minnesota Wild have signed forward Max Shabanov to a 1x$1.6M deal. Shabanov is a 25-year-old winger who played his first NHL season last year after coming over from Russia, where he had some great seasons in the KHL. There may be more to his game that he hasn’t fully shown yet, so I like this signing for Minnesota.

[Michael Russo @RussoHockey]

#mnwild sign forward Maxim Shabanov to a one-year, $1.6 million deal after he wasn't tendered a QO by the Isles

[Analytics With Avery @analyticswavery]

The Washington Capitals have signed forward Alex Ovechkin to a 1x$4.25M (with a bonus) extension. Ovechkin’s age is starting to show, with the Capitals forward now 40 years old, but he can still shoot the puck. I expect him to play fewer 5v5 minutes and serve primarily as a power-play specialist for Washington. It's good to have the greatest goal scorer back for another season.

[Washington Capitals @Capitals]

IT'S SO NOT O-VER, BABES‼️

The Washington Capitals have re-signed captain Alex Ovechkin to a one-year contract extension. Ovechkin’s contract will carry an average annual value of $4.25 million.

#ALLCAPS | #Gr8ness