TechCFO

CFO / Managing Director @ IT Service Group◾ Former M&A consultant in Germany and U.S. ◾ Expertise in Finance, Economics, M&A

[Rihard Jarc @RihardJarc]

A few thoughts that come up from this suspension of Fable/Mythos:

1. Even if this decision is changed the move set a precedence. Investors investing in AI model providers will start to price for this risk. The idea of one company monopolizing and developing “digital god” and reaping all the economic benefits of it is dead. This opens the question of the ability of these top frontier AI labs to pay for the big compute commitments.

2. Enterpises will rush to orchestration platforms as they will want to have the option to switch between different AI model providers with ease not just because of effectivness of models but also because of the risk that the model or provider is banned by the government. Hyperscalers are in a great position to be that orchestration layer between different providers.

3. There is going to be an acceleration of AI models exclusive for specific vertical use-cases (models that dont have cyber or other capabilities so the chances of gov reach is lower), competiton here is going to expand to outside of the top 3 AI labs IMO.

[Isabella M Weber @IsabellaMWeber]

A key idea in Chinese statecraft since ancient times is that the state has a responsibility to stabilize inherently unstable markets for essential commodities (see How China Escaped Shock Therapy). Public stockholdings like the ever normal granary participated in the market buying when prices are low and selling when prices are high for centuries with the goal of stabilizing supply and demand, prices and ultimately the value of money.

Now China is doing just that with the global oil market: It has drastically reduced its imports, hence pushing down demand in a time of global supply shortages. This is possible thanks to massive public reserves and strategic redundancy (some like to call this “overcapacity”). @JavierBlas finds that the number one reason why oil prices have not shot above USD 100 is China, China and China.

Imagine how much more stability the world could enjoy, if all countries engaged in such buffer stock stabilization for essentials such as grain. I have been calling for this at the G20 food security task force last year (see link below).

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Another record has been set.

The US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio is up to a record 238%.

This comes as the stock market's value surged to an all-time high of $75.7 trillion, far exceeding the ~$31.8 trillion size of the US economy.

This ratio has surged +38 percentage points since the March 30th bottom in the S&P 500.

This metric is also now +90 percentage points above the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak of ~148%.

Since the 2008 Financial Crisis, the US stock market has grown at 5x the rate of the underlying economy.

Asset owners are winning more than ever.

[Florian Kronawitter @fkronawitter1]

JPM on '27 data center build out:

"The latest analysis based on satellite images shows that over 60% of data center capacity planned for completion in 2027 has not begun construction with another 7% delayed"

[Thomas Mayer @Thomasfvs8ize]

Irgendetwas fühlt sich momentan seltsam an.

Während die Aktienmärkte weiter von AI-Euphorie getragen werden, steigen die Renditen fast überall gleichzeitig. US-Treasuries nahe 4,6 %, britische Gilts über 5 %, Bundesanleihen auf neuen Hochs — selbst Japan bewegt sich inzwischen in eine Richtung, die vor wenigen Jahren noch kaum vorstellbar gewesen wäre.

Vielleicht unterschätzen die Märkte noch immer, wie stark sich dauerhaft höhere Finanzierungskosten irgendwann auf Bewertungen auswirken. Vor allem bei Unternehmen, deren heutiger Kurs fast vollständig von sehr weit entfernten Zukunftserwartungen lebt.

Ich habe oft den Eindruck, dass Aktienmärkte in späten Phasen eines Zyklus anfangen, ihre eigene Realität zu handeln. Der Anleihemarkt wirkt dagegen meistens nüchterner.

Und historisch kamen die ersten Warnsignale selten aus den Schlagzeilen der Aktienmärkte selbst. Meist tauchten sie vorher irgendwo im Kredit- oder Zinsmarkt auf — leiser, technischer, aber oft ehrlicher.

Vielleicht erleben wir gerade wieder genau so eine Phase.

#Makroökonomie #Anleihemarkt #Zinsen #Europa #Aktienmarkt #EZB

[Thomas Mayer @Thomasfvs8ize]

Ich schaue mir seit Tagen die Entwicklung der globalen Ölbestände an — und ehrlich gesagt wirkt die Geschwindigkeit inzwischen ziemlich beunruhigend.
Zwischen März und Ende April sollen die Lagerbestände weltweit um fast 4,8 Millionen Barrel pro Tag gefallen sein. Das sieht nicht mehr nach einer normalen Schwankung aus, sondern eher danach, dass die Reserven systematisch aufgezehrt werden.
Viele konzentrieren sich gerade nur auf den Ölpreis. Ich glaube allerdings, das eigentliche Problem liegt woanders: Der Puffer verschwindet langsam.
Ölbestände können eben nicht beliebig sinken. Pipelines, Häfen, Raffinerien und die gesamte Logistik brauchen eine Mindestmenge, damit das System stabil bleibt.

Falls sich die Lage rund um die Straße von Hormus bis über den Sommer hinaus hinzieht, könnte Europa schneller unter Druck geraten, als die Märkte momentan einpreisen. Gerade Deutschland bleibt trotz aller politischen Narrative extrem abhängig von verlässlicher Energieversorgung.
Manchmal habe ich das Gefühl, die Märkte wirken im Moment fast zu entspannt.
Alle reden über Inflation, Zinsen oder AI — aber am Ende läuft moderne Wirtschaft immer noch auf Energie.

Und wenn Lagerbestände in diesem Tempo weiter fallen, geht es irgendwann vielleicht nicht mehr nur um höhere Preise.

[TechCFO @AndiWAX83]

@Letmoneywork050 Gut für Dich, dass Du Aktien immer nur mit Gewinn verkaufst :)

[Qasem Al-Ali @AlaliQasem]

Aramco just confirmed what the data already showed.
Even if Hormuz opens tomorrow — rebalancing takes months.
And if the closure extends a few more weeks?
Normalization pushed to 2027.
This means:
▸ June → Operational Stress Level (7.6B barrels)
▸ September → Operational Floor (6.8B barrels)
▸ 2027 → earliest possible normalization
The market is not pricing a 2027 recovery timeline.
It’s pricing a quick fix that Aramco just said won’t happen.
This changes everything.

[Marc-André Fongern @Fongern_FX]

⚠️ Airline jet fuel costs: +56% in March alone. $5.06bn spent, vs. $3.23bn in Feb. Prices nearly doubled since Hormuz closure. Deutsche projects a $24bn increase to the '26 industry fuel bill. Europe: ~3 weeks of jet fuel reserves left, per IEA. It's an aviation solvency story!

[🇺🇸 Edward T. Winslow @EdwardTWinz]

NOBODY IS TELLING YOU HOW FUCKED THE FARMERS ARE IN AMERICA RIGHT NOW.

The Agriculture Secretary just confirmed it publicly.

1 in 4 American farmers has NO fertilizer secured for spring planting.

No fertilizer. No crops. No food.

Farm bankruptcies are up 46% in 2025.

160,000 farms closed since 2017.

Less than half of all farmers will even turn a profit this year.

They're not struggling. They're being wiped out.

And the media is busy covering everything else.

The real story behind this hasn't been told yet.. follow me because i'm about to tell it 🚨

[Prof. Steve Keen @ProfSteveKeen]

The global food supply chain is about to snap, and the mainstream media isn’t telling you why.

20% of the world’s fertilizer supply is trapped in the Persian Gulf because of the war in Iran. This is a physical reality that mainstream economists are ignoring.

If this war does not end in the next two to three months, we will see a 10 to 25% drop in global food production.

Countries like Australia and the UK are incredibly vulnerable, with less than a month of essential supplies. We are looking at a potential global famine and the social breakdown that follows.

Check the comment section for more information.

#Economy #FoodSecurity #Geopolitics #PostKeynesian #FinancialInstability

[TechCFO @AndiWAX83]

@schieritz Nochmal: es setzt Unternehmen unnötig unter Druck und Erklärungszwang. Mitarbeiter erwarten diese 1.000 EUR - es wurde ihnen quasi von der Politik zugesagt. Viele Unternehmen können das nicht zahlen (Liquidität) oder wollen es nicht (Puffer aufbauen). War 2023 auch schon so.

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

Kazakhstan imposes six-month ban on fuel exports (BBC)

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Europe is in a full-blown energy crisis.

In fact, Europe's energy crisis has gotten so bad that the European Commission is now recommending Europeans to work from home.

They are also recommending using public transportation to cut fossil fuel use.

Meanwhile, new IEA data shows that Europe has just 6 weeks worth of jet fuel remaining as the Iran War shortage worsens.

As a result, many flights are expected to be cancelled on non-essential routes.

Between the Russia-Ukraine War and the Strait of Hormuz closure, Europe's vulnerability to energy supply shocks has been exposed.

We expect another wave of inflation in Europe.

[Velina Tchakarova @vtchakarova]

Sorry to spoil your Sunday but biggest news from today is that Yemen's Houthis announced that they will close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait - another critical choke point in the Red Sea, if US President Donald Trump continues to obstruct peace. The activation of Iran-backed proxy is not coincidence. Iran follows a careful escalation protocol so long as it controls to opening/reopening/closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of further destruction of energy infrastructure in the Gulf region.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

It's official:

We are now witnessing the largest energy supply disruption in modern history.

Since the start of the Iran War on February 28th, more than 500 million ​barrels of crude and condensate have been removed form the global market.

In other words, global supply has now lost ~$50 billion ​worth of crude oil production since the Iran war began nearly 50 days ago.

This is the same amount of fuel it takes to run the world's international shipping industry for 4 months.

The world has never seen anything like this before.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

HORMUZ UPDATE:

Iran has now turned back 20 vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz today and the US "blockade" has turned back a total of 23 vessels.

It appears we are now entering a complete shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz.

Prior to the US blockade, vessels from Iran and Iran's allies were permitted to sail through the Strait of Hormuz.

Now, under the US "blockade," the US is prohibiting vessels from accessing Iran's ports and coast.

We may be seeing the first ever complete shutdown of Hormuz.

More details to come shortly.

[Qasem Al-Ali @AlaliQasem]

Oil just dropped 11% because the Strait of Hormuz is “open.”
Let me show you why the market is making one of the biggest mistakes of 2026

[aussie17 @_aussie17]

🚨🚨🚨
PM Albanese spent the last week flying to Singapore, Brunei and Malaysia to secure fuel.

He just announced he only got 1.1 days of diesel, roughly 26 hours supply.

We use 90–95+ million litres every day.

After two back-to-back trips… that’s all we got.

The situation is far worse than they admit.

[TechCFO @AndiWAX83]

@schieritz Weil die Auszahlung bei Mitarbeitenden als quasi Bonus vorausgesetzt wird und du aktiv dagegen argumentieren musst. In einigen Fällen können es Unternehmen schlicht nicht zahlen.