Andrew Alspaugh

Food + Ag Investing

[Andrew Alspaugh @AndrewAlspaugh]

https://t.co/kpQtopvTnx

[Andrew Alspaugh @AndrewAlspaugh]

"Integrating microbiome information into breeding trials offers a feasible, scalable path toward more predictive, resilient, and sustainable crop improvement"

[Andrew Alspaugh @AndrewAlspaugh]

$FIG

[Andrew Alspaugh @AndrewAlspaugh]

@paulswaney3 Thanks!

[Andrew Alspaugh @AndrewAlspaugh]

@paulswaney3 Integration

[Andrew Alspaugh @AndrewAlspaugh]

@paulswaney3 Thank you!

[Andrew Alspaugh @AndrewAlspaugh]

https://t.co/1JVFTmIoDk

[Andrew Alspaugh @AndrewAlspaugh]

A few more assumptions:
1. Taiwan is a top priority for China
2. Trump doesn’t like the cost/benefit of defending Taiwan

So, the deal could be for China to give on most of the trade / industrial terms and in return they get a sunset on the US relationship with Taiwan

Xi and Trump both heroes. Taiwan big loser. Chip manufacturing / people move to New Taiwan in Arizona or Utah over the next few years

[Andrew Alspaugh @AndrewAlspaugh]

@jsngr Figma is a low cost / high value ingredient that makes cookies taste better

Every house just got an oven, electric mixer, and freezer with premade dough

Specialty ingredient use ⬆️

[Andrew Alspaugh @AndrewAlspaugh]

@ZmansEnrgyBrain How much gets drilled if they link a corporate tax holiday to 5% production growth?

[Andrew Alspaugh @AndrewAlspaugh]

This is the tweet when you’re prepping the Facebook board slide on AI power implications of the $35 WTI / $7.5 HH scenario

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

US shale oil production crossed 1 mil b/d in 2011. Since then, Saudi's market share has been on slow but steady decline, punctuated only briefly by steep price drops in 2015-6 and 2020.

Saudi can manage either price or market share. Today, it's losing control of both. Prices are falling and so is their market share. This unstable equilibrium is under appreciated by the market.

Saudi has no easy out. Either they maintain a $60+ price and see their market share continue to erode, or they increase production to reclaim market share, and see prices plummet. Either way, it's lower revenue in the short term.

Long-term revenue maximization is more important. Saudi can keep propping up the market for the benefit of US (and other non-OPEC) producers, but they shouldn't. Making the competition stronger at their expense is a terrible long-term strategy.

That leaves managing for market share, even if that means increasing production at today's moderate prices. Doing so will crush the market for several years and cause real pain. But Saudi will be better off in the long term with competitors suffering now rather than prospering. A third price collapse in 10 years will send the signal that no investor, sovereign or private, should ever invest in long-lived production again. Capital providers will completely lose faith in this industry. Saudi needs that.

Another price collapse would convince investors that the upstream market is uninvestable for all but the very best assets. There would be less capital for new drilling in the next cyclical rally, fearful of what will seem like an inevitable future price plunge. The market will learn the lesson and severely discount the forward curve, making it hard for producers to hedge and lock in their economics.

Only then will the strongest producer, Saudi, benefit from both rising production and prices. Taking the market to <$40 again will be painful for them in the near-term, but they have the financial wherewithal to survive. Taking the near term hit to revenues will be painful, but I don't think they have any choice.

[Kevin Twohy @kevintwohy]

Here's a behind-the-scenes look at my collaboration with the National Park Service – unifying the digital experience for hundreds of sites into a simple modular system. Thanks to friends at @figma for showcasing the work.

🔗 below.

[Sujeet Indap @sindap]

oddest LBO financing package I’ve seen:

Private equity’s latest source of leveraged buyout funding is US farmers https://t.co/89DDJffxoS

[The Lex Column @FTLex]

Smart tractors can’t steer out of this agricultural slump https://t.co/qugjM3GLX6

[Balaji @balajis]

Figma Slides may be the holy grail.
Aesthetics better than Keynote.
Collaboration better than Google Slides.

[Andrew Alspaugh @AndrewAlspaugh]

@zoink Thinkcell functionality. Tables link to other data sources and seamlessly turn into data viz https://t.co/qKu3MRp28C

[Andrew Alspaugh @AndrewAlspaugh]

https://t.co/PmoGtpxOyR?

[Andrew Alspaugh @AndrewAlspaugh]

Bayer breeding and testing new tomato genetics that would save california 100k acre feet per year $bayry

[Andrew Alspaugh @AndrewAlspaugh]

California acreage continuing to increase:

[Andrew Alspaugh @AndrewAlspaugh]

Select Harvest annual results out, stock down 25% to 60% of mgmt "NAV". Showing the dark side of the permanent crop cycle in almonds

[Andrew Alspaugh @AndrewAlspaugh]

Weather driven volume blow up's every 5 years: