It’s easy to look smart when your game is just to criticise everything
Both building and investing require conviction, which means you’ll sometimes risk being wrong and looking stupid
Luckily, other than CT clout, all the actual rewards come from conviction
If you lost money in $LUNA or $UST, then it's because you failed to think adversarially.
Adversarial thinking in crypto is not about what is *likely* to happen. It's about what *can* happen.
As I always like to say - if it *can* happen in crypto, it *will* happen in crypto.
How to make a >800 million dollars in crypto attacking the once 3rd largest stablecoin, Soros style:
Everyone is talking about the $UST attack right now, including Janet Yellen. But no one is talking about how much money the attacker made (or how brilliant it was). Lets dig in🧵
all these madness probably won't happen if Anchor rate was not 20%, but smth like 4%
UST market cap would be much lower. Luna wouldn't have gone to $130. we won't be able to laugh at Maker folks
but we will have more organic growth instead of a big bubble blown up by leverage
Now I'm sure @terra_money is under heavily attack... whoever is carrying this attack knows Tendermint* well and it's currently smashing the infrastructure increasing the financial damage. Someone must be really really mad.
An $18 billion stablecoin is losing its dollar peg with all the magical chaos of algorithmic stables, with a dash of Bitcoin systemic risk drama.
Here's everything you need to know.
The $UST Depeg Thread:
👇
Thinking abt decentralized ownership:
Can there be too much of it? If there are no entities who own comparatively large stake, do we have a "not enough vested interest" problem?
If everyone owns too little no one cares to drive value to it and protect it.
@krugermacro An interesting difference is that currency boards defend the peg at parity until they run out of money, but the Luna conversion mechanism doesn't do that, it backs off quickly.
This actually gets in the way of a pure Soros attack, as the attacker can't drain the reserves by...
May/9/2022 a day to remember
Nasdaq -4%
TLT +1%
Gold -2%
Oil -7%
NatGas -12%
URA -8%
Soyb -2%
VNQ -4%
ARKK -10%
COIN -19%
MSTR -25%
BTC -12.5% (since Friday close)
ETH -14% (same)
LUNA -35% (same)
$UST lost its peg dropping 8%, pushing crypto into a tailspin
$BTC held 30k
$UST is designed to withstand shocks, that's what an algorithmic stablecoin does
compare if $UST goes to $0.90 or $1.1 vs $USDT - the peg bends in one and breaks in the other.
I blame TFL for creating the wrong expectation with prior posts implying instantaneous peg stability
wHaT bEaR mArkEt
This thread is an assortment of mental models and frameworks I've developed and relied on throughout the span of my trading career, with some personal anecdotes mixed in.
I will continue to update this thread as I identify new trading maxims w/ time.
The positive thing about bear market is opportunistic stuff will get weed out and teams that focus on fundamentals and product-market fit will shine when market recovers as those hype-driven projects won't even exist anymore.
I look forward to meme coin going down another 90%.
⚓️🌘fun way to visualize all the excitement on @terra_money and @anchor_protocol over the last couple days
nb: more repay than ^ collateral 🤔
the bubbles are back baby! 🎧🎧🎧
data: @flipsidecrypto
bubbles engine: @0xdef1