Kyrilo

[genik @gena_novikov]

ймовірність розігнати нрк до 82 км/год низька, але ніколи не дорівнює нулю 🫣

[Dmytro Putiata @kriegsforscherD]

It’s very pleasant to see how morale increased because of Ukrainian strikes. Unfortunately, I even see too much optimism because of that. A lot of people started thinking that «we will be in Berlin till Christmas» (c)

But situation on the ground in some areas not that pleasant. At least since April Russian Unmanned Systems Forces (including Rubicon) started using 13 and 17 inches FPVs against our logistics. They are capable of flying 40 km across(!) the frontline using radio (while in most cases Ukraine relies on Starlink) and fibre drone optics.

These drones are capable of carrying a Soviet TM-62 (apart from others type of ammunition). I can say that they use VT-40 V2 and Veles drones. They use 2.1-2.7 for drone control and 3.3-4.5 for video. They have two 32 000 mAh and capable of carrying batteries from «Molniya».

Russians right now have only two options: adapt/consider drastic changes or imagine that nothing is happening and be defeated. Both cases require a lot of time.

[Ben Smith @semaforben]

NEWS: US Government permits Anthropic to release Mythos to a list of major US companies https://t.co/s42ZYkxSMP

[Tomasz Darmolinski @DarmolinskiT]

Chińskie modemy MESH w dronach typu Shahed/Gerbera coraz częściej pracują poza „standardowymi” zakresami
W przypadku rosyjskich dronów uderzeniowych i wabików coraz wyraźniej widać, że łączność radiowa oparta na modemach MESH nie ogranicza się do jednego stałego pasma. Konfiguracja zależy od producenta, wersji sprzętu, oprogramowania oraz tego, jak przeciwnik próbuje reagować na nasze środki walki radioelektronicznej.
Najczęściej wskazuje się dwa podstawowe zakresy pracy:
1300–1500 MHz
3200–3400 MHz
To jednak nie zamyka tematu. W praktyce obserwowane były również inne zakresy, https://t.co/Zimq0g1w2u.:
500–700 MHz
1600–1800 MHz
2100–2300 MHz
2700–2900 MHz
Najnowsza obserwacja dotyczy zakresu 3900–4100 MHz.
To ważny sygnał. Przeciwnik nie tylko używa gotowych rozwiązań komunikacyjnych, ale aktywnie sprawdza, które pasma dają największą szansę utrzymania łączności w środowisku silnego zakłócania. Innymi słowy, mamy do czynienia nie z pojedynczą konfiguracją radiową, ale z procesem ciągłej adaptacji.
Dla systemów C-UAS i WRE oznacza to kilka rzeczy.
Po pierwsze, nie wystarczy „znać pasma”. Trzeba stale monitorować widmo i aktualizować bibliotekę emisji.
Po drugie, zakłócanie punktowe może szybko tracić skuteczność, jeżeli przeciwnik zaczyna przenosić łączność na mniej oczywiste zakresy.
Po trzecie, coraz większe znaczenie ma rozpoznanie radioelektroniczne, automatyczna detekcja nietypowych emisji i szybkie przekładanie tych danych na działanie w systemach przeciwdziałania.
Wojna dronowa coraz mocniej staje się wojną adaptacji w widmie elektromagnetycznym. Kto szybciej wykrywa zmianę, rozumie jej znaczenie i potrafi odpowiedzieć technicznie, ten zyskuje realną przewagę.

[ABC News @ABC]

"If this is what fate has brought me, I will defend my country and my daughter."

Former @ABC News producer Maksym "Max" Oseredchuk was killed in a Russian drone strike while serving in Ukraine’s military.

@JamesAALongman pays tribute to "an incredibly special person."

[Aaron Rupar @atrupar]

JD Vance: "I think Nixon's historical legacy is enjoying a bit of a renaissance, and deservedly so. I joked that if Watergate happened tomorrow, it would be like a 12 hours news story. The idea that it took down a presidency is crazy."

[Malcontent News @MalcontentmentT]

Russia will not run out of fuel. If you're waiting for that to happen, good luck.

Refinery output is not zero, it continues, and regions maintain strategic reserves.

Demand is outstripping supply. Some of that is panic buying. Some of that is that refinery output can match demand. Some of that is shortages of trucks, drivers, and railroad tanker cars. The situation is clearly getting worse at an accelerating rate.

What is happening is that the Russian leadership will have to make increasingly difficult decisions about who gets fuel and who doesn't.

Obviously, the government overlords, the security apparatus, and the military are the top priorities.

The next tier is emergency services, logistics, and farmers.

The third tier is everything else, including public services, as we're seeing.

There are three problems that will make the situation progressively worse. The first is that as prices rise, inflation increases, and some businesses, battered financially since the COVID pandemic, won't survive.

The second one is if the average Russian can't get to their jobs because they can't fill up their cars and/or public transit is restricted or not running, industrial output declines, and tourism collapses. One creates scarcity, the other creates unemployment.

The third one is if the supply issues start to impact logistics. The remaining fuel supply will have to be increasingly dedicated to fuel transport. How ironic.

As the fuel supply continues to drop, prices will continue to increase. The Kremlin can spend more on its fuel price mechanism or send the anti-monopoly flying monkeys to the independent filling-station chains. The first option requires the money printers to go bbbbrrrrrttttt, the second option makes the fuel shortages worse. Independents will simply close rather than operating at a loss to stay out of prison.

Russia will never run out of petrol or diesel, but it can be slowly choked out as the supply tightens.

[414 Magyar's Birds @414magyarbirds]

Magyar's update on Crimean wormography:

Air-defense collapse and the cleansing of Crimea from worms.

Among the diverse targets hit by the USF Birds in the enemy’s operational depth on the occupied territory, 38 targets were engaged during the night of June 25.
Among them were three coastal radars, fuel and energy infrastructure, logistics, and more.

🔥 Coastal radar MR-231, Myrnyi, Crimea – @1usc_army of the @usf_army
🔥 Coastal radar Neva-B, Morske, Crimea – 1st Separate Center of the USF
🔥 Coastal radar Neva-B, Zaozerne, Crimea – 1st Separate Center of the USF
🔥 Tavriiska Thermal Power Plant, Simferopol, Crimea – 9th Battalion “Kairos”, 414th Separate USF Brigade “Magyar’s Birds”
🔥 330/220/110/35 kV “Sevastopol” electrical substation, Sevastopol, Crimea – 1st Separate Center of the USF
🔥 330 kV “Simferopolska” electrical substation, Simferopol, Crimea – 1st Separate Center of the USF
🔥 Oil depot, Dzhankoi, Crimea – UAV Group “Phoenix”
🔥 Gas compressor station, Zhuravlivka, Crimea – 20th Separate USF Brigade “K-2”
🔥 Gas compressor station, Kliuchi, Crimea – 412th Separate USF Brigade “Nemesis”
🔥 ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun, Kumove, Crimea – 1st Separate Center of the USF

Follow the results live:
USF Online Dashboard “PIDRAKHUYKA”
https://t.co/nh7Ue8DDdQ

MAGYAR 🇺🇦
25.06.26

[laurence norman @laurnorman]

It hasn’t been given any attention but among the “sanctions” relief given to Iran is a wipeout of IAEA board resolutions under a final agreement offered by Trump administration. Here’s the wording -1-

[Haley Britzky @halbritz]

In 2021, I went to Fort Bragg and sat down with the public affairs NCO who took the now-famous photo of Gen. Chris Donahue leaving Afghanistan and said he captured it by putting NODs in front of his cell phone camera.

“I’m absolutely proud to have been the one to take that photo,” Master Sgt. Alex Burnett said. “I’m glad that I got to be there to see that moment, but it still just blows my mind because honestly I was stressed the entire time, like ‘Please be in focus, please be in focus, please be in focus.’”
https://t.co/cZuKcm9paz

[Ranieri Bizzarri @nanoscalebiomed]

@OfficialTozzi Mario, per favore. Basta il concetto di derivata a dire che è una scempiaggine. India e Cina stanno crescendo nella produzione di CO2 a una velocità positiva, Europa e Stati Uniti declinano da anni. Per favore, siamo su X ma poi non ti lamentare se tutto è degrado.

[Tatarigami_UA @Tatarigami_UA]

Граждане России! Кто ещё не покинул Крым, самое время это сделать. В ближайшие недели обстановка в Крыму будет ухудшаться с впечатляющей скоростью. У нас, к счастью, очень талантливый тамада, поэтому конкурсы будут становиться всё интереснее.

[Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch]

“In the early months of the occupation, children played a role in the resistance. They slipped through checkpoints easily, took instantly to encrypted apps, and were extraordinarily brave. But the risks they took were no less grave than those faced by adults. An errant social-media post—or simply “liking” content supportive of Ukraine—was enough to get a child hauled in for interrogation. Those sessions could involve unspeakable violence, especially for girls. I interviewed one who was only 11 when her village near Kherson had been occupied. Implicated in “resistance” activities, she was dragged from her home. As we began our conversation, she apologized for her stutter. “I did not used to have this problem,” she told me, “until the Russians took me to the basement.”

https://t.co/scTLKWNO79

[Michael Kofman @KofmanMichael]

I try to take a balanced look at the question of Russian military reconstitution after this war, the problems and enduring weaknesses in the force, but also how it has evolved and expanded in ways that we need to consider in future contingencies. https://t.co/J0jaZ9ViCW

[Status-6 (War & Military News) @Archer83Able]

OTD in 2023: The Wagner mutiny begins.

Prigozhin and his forces begin the march on Moscow.

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

Source: https://t.co/SR7BlOcngw

[Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 @bayraktar_1love]

Something I've been waiting to see for a long time: drone operators striking Russian logistics at one of the key bottlenecks of the land corridor to Crimea — right in the middle of a pontoon crossing next to the damaged Chonhar Bridge.

If the Kerch Bridge ever stops functioning, crossings like this will become unavoidable death traps for Russian logistics. Every convoy, fuel truck and supply column heading into Crimea will be forced through the same narrow choke points, turning them into prime hunting grounds for Ukrainian drone operators.

[Luciano Capone @lucianocapone]

“Da che dipende? Da che punto guardi il mondo tutto dipende”, cantavano gli Jarabe de Palo. Funziona così per il rapporto tra politica e giustizia. Da Roma si vedono le cose in un modo, da Madrid in un altro.

Se un governo attacca la magistratura che indaga sulla famiglia del primo ministro, se vari ministri accusano i giudici di fare politica attraverso le inchieste, se i partiti di maggioranza ipotizzano una cospirazione tra pezzi di magistratura, giornali e opposizione per rovesciare il voto popolare, se ministri chiedono al Csm di punire i giudici che rinviano a giudizio la moglie del premier, se il partito del primo ministro mette in piedi una struttura criminale per screditare pm e inquirenti ostili, siamo di fronte a una deriva autoritaria?

Dipende. Se fosse l’Italia di Giorgia Meloni certamente sì, anche per molto meno. Ma trattandosi della Spagna di Pedro Sánchez, assolutamente no. 👇https://t.co/8K2FkPkGll

[שקד גרין ערבה | Shaked Green Arava @shaked_green]

חזרתי לאחרונה ממילואים ארוכים. על השינויים בכלכליסט אין לי מה לומר, פרט לכך שבאופן טבעי אני עצוב מאוד על עזיבתם של מוריי ורבותיי בעיתונות – גלית, גולן ואמיר. על המילואים יש לי הרבה מה לומר, ואני צריך לומר לפחות חלק לפני שאני חוזר לצייץ על דברים אחרים:

[Полковник РВСН @Pravonapadenie]

Russia started plundering Mariupol, the largest Ukrainian city it has captured and still holds, while it was still burning. The process is leaving a massive paper trail. I spent a year poring over every occupation order and court ruling. This is the result https://t.co/bI8cQ7ebZ0