Andy

[Andy @andyhtxg]

@stevenfiorillo @amitisinvesting Breaking Bad is the greatest show of all time. I've watched it twice.

[Steven Fiorillo @stevenfiorillo]

Yesterday Kevin Warsh hiked rates by 25bps with core CPI at 2.4% YoY, the lowest reading since March 2021. His explanation was that inflation is too high and has been for too long.

Core inflation was 80bps higher when the Fed cut by 50bps than it was when the Fed just hiked. It gets stranger when you look at the monthly data. The August 2024 core print before the cut was 0.3%. The August 2026 core print before the hike was 0.3%. Identical monthly numbers produced opposite policy decisions.

I get the pushback. Headline is 3.4% now because energy ripped and the funds rate was 5.25% to 5.50% then vs 3.5% to 3.75% now so the starting points were different. That still doesn't explain how 3.2% core justified easing into an election while 2.4% core justifies tightening.

Either the Fed was too easy in 2024 or it's too tight now. Both can't be the right call at those inflation levels. Every Fed official says policy is data dependent yet the same 0.3% monthly core print produced a 50bps cut in one cycle and a hike in the next. The 2% target isn't setting policy. Discretion is.

I would love to see what Fed Chair Warsh would say to this. @federalreserve @SecScottBessent @realDonaldTrump

[Andy @andyhtxg]

@Brammflakes @BigfryTV Faction selection is basically a skin now. Either give each faction a real mechanical identity, or auto-balance teams (premades aside) so one side doesn't spiral. Right now it's the worst of both: a choice that looks meaningful but mostly just decides how often you lose

[Andy @andyhtxg]

@Brammflakes @BigfryTV I’d love to see faction-specific buffs to make team selection more intentional. Blue loses too often, teams feel disorganized. Maybe help players group by playstyle? Blue can be assault/build, Red assault, and Green build. It’d help teams coordinate and feel more cohesive.

[Andy @andyhtxg]

@amitisinvesting Great news timing, right before the Fed meeting next week

[Andy @andyhtxg]

@stevenfiorillo @amitisinvesting @elonmusk It's a great vehicle! I drove 22k miles in my Model Y and used FSD over 90% of the time.

[Nebius @nebiusai]

We are partnering with Palantir to bring trusted AI cloud infrastructure to Palantir’s commercial customers.

Palantir has named Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner.

Nebius compute and inference endpoints will run inside the Palantir enterprise perimeter – giving customers control over their compute, data, and models.

The partnership is based on a shared vision that open models, continually adapted using customers’ own data, can deliver better domain-specific intelligence while improving control and security.

Read the full press release: https://t.co/OxFxKSOrqr

[Molly O’Shea @MollySOShea]

Rocket Lab ( $RKLB ) Week starts tmw

Interview + 2-part tour in Long Beach, CA

Founder & CEO Sir @Peter_J_Beck

[Road to retirement @moneymaker7723]

I ate dinner thinking of $NBIS today.
I went to bed thinking of $NBIS today.
I woke up thinking of $NBIS today.

So I called Jensen Huang and asked him what I should do about it.

[Andy @andyhtxg]

@amitisinvesting @optionscjp Maybe he’s going through a mid life crisis lol

[Tevis @FunOfInvesting]

$CRWV Q2 EARNINGS

Sales $2.575B Beat $2.56B Est. 🟢
EPS $(1.14) Beat $(1.47) Est. 🟢

Revenue Backlog ~$104B As of June 30

[Parkash Heerani @heeraniparkash]

$RKLB — Bloomberg Interview

Q1. Can you clarify the confusion about Neutron? Yesterday, it seemed like you were pushing back the launch date a little bit. Is Neutron still on track to launch from its launch pad in 2026?

Peter Beck: I think the headlines overblew it a little bit. What I said is that it's getting a little tighter to get a launch away this year. That's just being honest and transparent.

It's a rocket program. These are very difficult and complex programs. Our intention is to push hard and try to get the first flight away this year.

But I think the real question that should be asked is: What about the 10th flight?

The first flight is obviously important, but flight number 10 is really important because that shows you've reached scale, cadence, and reusability. That's the most important thing for the whole program.

Q2. You mentioned cadence. Tell us a bit about how you're thinking about cadence going forward. Is there a viable path to getting to a regular cadence?

Peter Beck: If you look at our current vehicle, Electron, we actually scaled that faster than any other rocket in history. We went from zero to 50 flights in the shortest time in history, and we're on track to get to 100 flights in the shortest time in history with that vehicle as well.

So we know a thing or two about taking a rocket, putting it on the pad, and flying it over and over again.

Neutron is really important for a few reasons. A lot of people focus on it filling a gap and providing competition for Falcon 9, which is an important part of its job.

But Rocket Lab is an end-to-end space company. We build satellites both for ourselves and for other people. With the pending acquisition of Iridium, we really need a rocket to launch our own satellites.

At least 50% of Neutron's capacity is going to be consumed by ourselves.

Q3. SpaceX was able to raise a huge amount of cash recently. How do you intend to continue raising cash to fund some of these expensive endeavors?

Peter Beck: I think we're a little different from SpaceX. Elon has very grand aspirations that require a lot of cash.

For us, we're in the business of getting to cash-flow positivity as quickly as we can. If you look at some of the acquisitions we've done in the past and those we're about to do, they put us in that realm very quickly.

We have a very different profile from the other big rocket companies. I'm certainly not one of the richest people in the world, and our competitors have a totally different cost and sense of capital.

We've always been the rocket company that has had to be very commercial from day one. We're focused on building a good, solid business and a commercial enterprise that's enduring and making money.

Q4. I look at the reported backlog of $2.36 billion with 90-plus launches. How should investors look at that backlog? At what point does it become something that should raise concern if it gets too large?

Peter Beck: Everybody loves a great big backlog. Between the last quarter and now, we added nearly $1 billion of backlog to the company.

Backlog is a great metric, but execution is the true measure.

If you look at the company, I think we've established ourselves as very strong executors. Throughout our history, we do what we say we're going to do.

Q5. The Iridium deal, which is pending completion, potentially opens the door for direct-to-device products. How do you see that opportunity, particularly against competitors?

Peter Beck: I've been saying this for many years, and I think evidence from other companies has proven it out: the really large space companies of the future are going to look a little bit the same.

They're going to have the ability to build satellites at scale, launch their own satellites with their own rockets, and have a communications business.

Iridium is the entry point for us. It's by no means the endpoint.

One of the reasons we like the Iridium platform so much is that it has a very unique spectrum. Its L-band spectrum allows you to do very unique things.

Iridium has built an amazing business around safety-critical, defense-critical, and critical-infrastructure applications. That's something that will continue to grow.

I don't think you're going to see us going head-to-head in the broadband market. That's very well served and is a tough place to be.

But I think there's a tremendous opportunity in some of these more discrete and unique areas of the communications market.

Q6. Talk to us about the Kepler deal, which you announced yesterday. Kepler Communications purchased a dedicated Neutron launch for no earlier than 2028. How important is that to the business?

Peter Beck: It's funny because naturally a lot of people would expect that we should sell all of the rockets we have for eternity.

If we were just a rocket company, that would be a great assumption. But we have to make sure that we have rockets left in production and available to launch our own missions, as well as for some of our defense customers who need assured access to space.

Right now, I've never seen the rocket and launch industry so constrained.

For us, we're extremely selective about who we give this very valuable Neutron capacity to.

It was great to have the Kepler team on contract. We've known that team for a very long time.

But it is a very constrained environment right now, and we have to navigate it carefully.

Q7. What's the detailed plan for getting to cash-flow positive? Is it just a matter of time?

Peter Beck: Yes, absolutely.

Neutron, after we have the first flight and then move into commercial flights, is a huge inflection point for the company.

And, of course, an acquisition like Iridium would do that immediately.

So we have a fairly short time horizon to reaching cash-flow positivity.

Q8. Looking at the acquisitions of Mynaric, Motive, and Iridium, are you hungry for more deals, or is there a pause in terms of the company's acquisitive stance?

Peter Beck: Never done, never done.

All of those acquisitions have been very strategic. I think launch creates a tremendous moat, and everybody can see that. It's the big show in the sky.

But actually, we've acquired a whole bunch of component companies and scaled those. Components are just as much of a moat.

No matter how much capital you have, if you just turn up and say, "I want to build a thousand satellites," you can't, because there isn't a supply chain there to provide all of the components for the spacecraft.

For us, that's not a constraint, of course. But for other people entering the market, it's a huge constraint.

So you'll continue to see us tackling those smaller deals on the side.

Deals like Iridium certainly aren't going to be the last. And you shouldn't think of us as the L-band communications company.

This is the first of many, I would say.

[Fundamental Investing @Investinc_Intel]

$SOFI OFFICIALLY ALLOWS YOU TO CANCEL SUBSCRIPTIONS WITHIN THE APP!

Another way SoFi is making your financial journey simple and easy!

[Steven Fiorillo @stevenfiorillo]

If I paid for them I get to use them. Everyone also gets to benefit because https://t.co/GsamvdzB3D is free for anyone to use.

[Andy @andyhtxg]

@FunOfInvesting I’m doing 100 push ups and 20 pull ups 3x times a week. I highly recommend it. Let’s go bro! 💪🏽

[amit @amitisinvesting]

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Rocket Lab $RKLB won a $266M U.S. Air Force contract, extending its momentum in defense. The launches are expected to take place in Alaska and be completed by the end of 2028. The award adds to Rocket Lab’s growing streak of defense contract wins as the company continues expanding its role in national security space missions.

2. BofA is staying bullish on the memory trade, arguing that Chinese open-source AI models strengthen the long-term demand case for $MU, $SKHY, $SNDK, $STX, and $WDC. The firm reiterated its Buy rating on Micron $MU with a $1,550 price target, saying cheaper Chinese model pricing does not mean lower hardware intensity. BofA notes Kimi K3 API pricing is reportedly 5x–350x below Western models, but says that reflects business-model choices rather than the true cost of compute infrastructure. The firm also highlights that Kimi K3 needs roughly 1.4TB of HBM per serving instance, while larger AI models should require the same or even more memory as weights and active parameters grow. BofA also sees CXMT focused on commodity DRAM rather than advanced HBM, and notes Micron’s CHIPS Act restrictions may expire around December 2026, potentially opening the door for $50B–$60B in annual buybacks.

3. Moonshot AI is reportedly targeting a valuation of up to $50B in a final pre-IPO funding round after launching Kimi K3. The company is expected to close its current round at a $31.5B valuation before starting another round of fundraising talks in August, ahead of a potential Hong Kong IPO that could come as soon as this year.

4. Tesla $TSLA detailed its 2026 Summer software update, with rollout expected soon. The biggest change is deeper Grok integration, letting drivers use voice commands to place calls, control music, change climate settings, and open the glovebox. Tesla is also bringing self-driving stats into the mobile app, making them viewable and shareable, while navigation will get smarter by surfacing routine destinations and favoring routes the driver has taken before. The update also adds the ability to set a preferred arrival battery level from the app, upload custom vehicle wraps without a USB drive, and lock rear-screen controls from the front display.

5. Nvidia $NVDA says it could eventually produce up to 1,000 Vera Rubin racks per day. If reached, that scale would imply more than $630B in quarterly revenue for Nvidia and its manufacturing partners, based on estimates cited in the post. Nvidia’s hardware engineering SVP Andrew Bell said the company’s manufacturing partners should be able to make up to 1,000 racks per day once production ramps, highlighting the massive revenue potential tied to Vera Rubin if AI data center demand continues scaling.

6. Sam Altman is expected to brief the Trump administration and members of Congress next week on OpenAI’s next family of models, including their capabilities and potential impact on jobs. A new release may be getting closer, though OpenAI has not officially named the models GPT-6 or announced a launch date.

7. Jefferies came away impressed after testing Meta’s $META AI glasses, highlighting the camera quality, seamless setup, and normal-glasses form factor. The firm says Meta has a first-mover advantage as the only player currently shipping AI glasses at scale. Jefferies estimates the category could become a $14B–$18B hardware revenue opportunity within the next few years, assuming Apple Watch-like adoption at an average selling price of $400, or roughly 35M–45M units. The firm also sees upside from AI subscriptions, advertising, and commerce over time. Jefferies noted Meta AI now has around 1B monthly active users, daily glasses users are tripling YoY, and more than 7M units were sold in 2025. Jefferies says the bigger opportunity is commerce, as AI glasses could capture user intent at the point of discovery if agentic AI shifts behavior from browsing to delegation. units in 2026.

8. Supermicro $SMCI gave a major preliminary update after hours. Fiscal Q4 revenue is expected to land near the low end of its $11B–$12.5B guidance range, but the bigger surprise is gross margin, now expected at 15%–17% versus the prior 8.2%–8.4% forecast. Last quarter, SMCI was guiding gross margins around 8.4%–8.7%, and its TTM gross margin is only 8.83%, making this a dramatic improvement in just 90 days. The company also said it received more than $60B in new orders during the quarter, pushing backlog to a record high, though some orders could still be delayed or canceled. Full results are due August 11

9. Google $GOOGL is rolling out Gemini 3.6 Flash, Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite, and a new limited-access cybersecurity-focused model. Gemini 3.6 Flash is designed to be more efficient, using up to 17% fewer tokens while also lowering cost per token. Flash-Lite is aimed at faster, high-volume use cases where speed and scale matter most. Google is also introducing Gemini 3.5 Flash Cyber, a model built to find and help fix software vulnerabilities, though access will initially be restricted to governments and trusted partners.

10. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.3M contracts, $AAPL with 1.1M contracts, $MU with 977K contracts, $TSLA with 887K contracts, $SPCX with 752K contracts, $INTC with 656K contracts, $AMZN with 511K contracts, $NFLX with 509K contracts, $AMD with 410K contracts, and $MSFT with 387K contracts.

11. CoreWeave $CRWV says near-term profitability is being weighed down by a timing mismatch in its AI infrastructure rollout. New capacity starts depreciating roughly six weeks before contracted customer revenue begins coming in, creating pressure on reported earnings. The company is carrying about $30B of debt to fund 49 operating data centers and future deployments, with depreciation and interest equal to 81% of Q1 revenue. CEO Michael Intrator expects that drag to lessen as more installed capacity converts into revenue. CoreWeave’s financing is supported by long-term customer contracts, where clients must pay for reserved capacity whether they use it or not.

12. Short interest across U.S. equities is climbing to extreme levels. In the S&P 500, short interest has risen to roughly 3.7% of free float, near the highest level in data going back to 2010. For the Russell 3000, short interest is around 6.1%, also close to an all-time high, with both measures steadily moving higher since the start of 2025. Across all NYSE-listed stocks, short interest reached a record 9.0% of shares outstanding in late June. For context, that same metric peaked near 5.0% during the 2008 Financial Crisis and around 6.0% during the 2020 pandemic.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

[Andy @andyhtxg]

@amitisinvesting LETS GOO

[Andy @andyhtxg]

@amitisinvesting Soo this will pump @SpaceX to $200? 🤣

[Andy @andyhtxg]

@amitisinvesting @SpideyFI Hope you have a speedy recovery!

[amit @amitisinvesting]

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. $BTC Bitcoin’s selloff is worsening, with the price falling below $63,000 for the first time since February 24. The move has triggered a wave of forced selling across crypto markets, with more than $1.1 billion in leveraged crypto positions liquidated over the past 24 hours.

2. $AVGO reported strong Q2’26 results, with revenue of $22.19B, slightly above estimates, up 48% YoY, and adjusted EPS of $2.44, beating expectations and rising 54% YoY. Semiconductor Solutions revenue came in at $15.0B, up 79% YoY, while AI semiconductor revenue surged 143% YoY to $10.8B, though it came in below buyside expectations. For Q3, Broadcom guided revenue to roughly $29.4B, ahead of consensus but slightly below buyside expectations, with AI semiconductor revenue expected to reach about $16B. The company also delivered $10.26B in free cash flow, equal to 46% of revenue, and said growth is being driven by accelerating AI demand, custom AI accelerators, AI networking, and strong operating leverage.

3. $META is reportedly considering charging up to $199.99/month for Hatch, its planned consumer AI agent, according to The Information. Hatch is described as a consumer version of OpenClaw that lets users create software tools and automate tasks with plain-language prompts, including scheduling events, sending emails, building simple apps, and generating travel itineraries. Meta is also considering a premium Hatch Plus tier that would offer 5–10x more daily usage capacity than the free version. During development, Hatch has used Anthropic’s Claude models, but it is expected to run on Meta’s Muse Spark model at launch.

4. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.4M contracts, $TSLA with 3.4M contracts, $AAPL with 1.3M contracts, $AMZN with 1.1M contracts, $MSFT with 958K contracts, $META with 916K contracts, $NOK with 749K contracts, $INTC with 730K contracts, $GOOGL with 708K contracts, and $PLTR with 622K contracts. Nvidia and Tesla once again dominated options activity, each trading more than 3.4M contracts, while Apple and Amazon also saw elevated volume above 1M contracts.

5. $IREN signed a transmission connection agreement for an 800MW data center campus in Bundey, South Australia. The site includes four 330kV feeder exits, allowing it to support up to 800MW without requiring network upgrades, with energization expected to begin in 2028. The project marks IREN’s first announced Australian data center campus and would provide submarine fiber connectivity to key APAC markets, including Singapore, Indonesia, South Korea, and Japan.

6. $AAPL Apple's smart glasses roadmap has reportedly changed, according to supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. Apple’s display-equipped AR/XR glasses, which are expected to use optical waveguide technology, have reportedly been pushed back to 2029. Meanwhile, Apple’s display-less AI glasses, similar to Ray-Ban Meta, are still expected to ship in 2027. Kuo also says Apple is shifting resources away from the Vision Pro line and toward smart glasses that may have broader mass-market appeal.

7. $GOOGL plans to use roughly $30B of its $80B equity raise to cover tax obligations tied to employee equity awards, according to The Information. That would represent nearly 40% of the total raise, roughly double last year’s amount, and about 14% of expected operating cash flow.

8. $CRWD reported solid Q1’27 results, with revenue of $1.39B, up 26% YoY, and adjusted EPS of $1.10, both slightly ahead of expectations. ARR reached $5.51B, up 24% YoY, while net new ARR grew 32% YoY to $255.8M. CrowdStrike also announced a 4-for-1 stock split, with the record date set for June 25, 2026 and split-adjusted trading expected to begin on July 2, 2026. For the full year, the company guided revenue to $5.915B–$5.959B, ARR to roughly $6.53B–$6.56B, and adjusted EPS to $4.88–$4.96, while raising its net new ARR growth outlook to 27.7% at the midpoint. Management said CrowdStrike is becoming critical AI security infrastructure, highlighting record Q1 net new ARR, strong module adoption, and its AI-driven security products as signs of an AI inflection point.

9. SpaceX $SPCX is reportedly planning to price its IPO at $135 per share, with plans to sell 555.6 million shares and raise roughly $75 billion. At that price, the company would be valued at nearly $1.75 trillion, making it one of the largest IPOs in history.

10. US data center construction spending surged 28% YoY in April to a record annualized rate of $50.7B, surpassing public transportation construction spending of $49.9B for the first time in history. Since 2022, data center construction spending has exploded 357%, compared with just 16% growth in government transportation spending. As a result, data centers now represent 2.3% of all US construction spending, highlighting how AI infrastructure demand is reshaping the construction economy.

11. Ray Dalio says AI has the ingredients of a classic technology bubble, arguing that major technological shifts often create bubbles because it is impossible for investors and companies to perfectly predict the winners. He said companies face a difficult choice: spend aggressively to capture market share, or risk underspending and falling behind. Dalio added that bubbles eventually “prick” when investors or companies need to sell wealth/assets to raise cash, turning enthusiasm into forced selling pressure.

12. The S&P 500 closed the day red for the first time in 9 trading days. The last time the S&P $SPY closed green for 10 days in a row was 1995.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.