There are people who get angry saying, "If I lose despite following the rules, then there is no point in following the rules," but this is completely wrong.
They misunderstand the saying "It's about the process, not the result."
Don't they think that if they focus on the process, their immediate trade results will improve?
They say, "I lost this time because my process was bad."
That's not the case.
Even if you focus on the process, there is no guarantee that you will win the trade in front of you.
What is guaranteed is long-term results, and for that, you must continue to focus on the process in the long term.
Deeply understand the meaning of utilizing probability.
No matter how much you focus on the process, short-term results are random.
However, it is because you continue to repeat the same process that the law of large numbers works and probability acts.
Do not act for the sake of the current results.
My plan is very simple, yet effective.
1. Accumulate positions leading into Q4/ NOV elections
2. Allow the retail market to flow in
3. $ETH reaches a new all-time high
4. Altcoins enter a parabolic run
5. As the market euphoria peaks, begin strategic exits
6. Identify and call the market top like I did last cycle
7. Recession sets in
8. Exit completely and fuck off.
(All of this will happen within 6-8 months.)
Conservative, bear, delusional.
These are the adjectives that people attribute to me when they see my targets for the overall cycle and for specific coins.
Listen, my targets are based on my expectations but most importantly they're backed by data and aren't randomly thrown out.
You're open to not agree with me and it's totally fine, everyone has personal opinions.
Just know the fact that my purpose is trying to help you by setting conservative (to me are realistic, but this is another topic) targets.
If you don't appreciate and aren't satisfied of a 3/4/5x I think you should reconsider your priorities.
You won't have such returns in such a short period of time, this is the only market that allows you to be blessed with similar gains.
Continuing to raise the "targets bar" will only make sure that you'll remain aboard on the moon train where the desire to reach the furthest station will risk having a boomerang effect, in which the return ticket will be very, very expensive.
"It's guaranteed, it's programmed, I'm sure.."
These are the statements that will ruin your trip.
FED will Cut Rates Tomorrow, Making it Cheaper for the Market to Borrow money, after 4 Years.
This is What I Expect.
1. Market instant Pumps.
2. Short term holders and event trading retails take Profits, market Dumps.
3. Sell the news event. Dip and Accumulation.
4. People lose hope. Market becomes clean. We Pump non stop after inducing Boredom.
find alts like these:
- newly launched in 2023
- well funded
- down 50%+ from recent highs
- emerging community
- has buzzwords in their tagline
VC coins are currently hated but im pretty sure there's gonna come a time in this cycle when all of these will pump one by one
also, the setup provides a good r:r with a clear invalidation and target
make use of this chop period and scan the charts before the train leaves the station
FED Rate Cut Report: What’s Next?
Get ready for the big event on the 18th
Here’s what you need to know:
The market expects a 50:50, there’s a 50% chance we’ll see a 0.25% rate cut, and another 50% chance of a 0.50% cut. But remember when I told you two months ago that Jerome Powell would deliver a 0.50% cut in September? No one believed me then. I also predicted the CPI and PPI numbers would come in better than expected twice in a row, both times as predicted. Yes it played out and yes you ill see a 0.50% rate cut.
Why? A 0.25% cut is simply too little for where we are now. If the Fed doesn’t go for a 0.50% cut, we WILL face another "Blood Monday" a market crash like the one we saw few weeks ago. Powell wants to avoid that. He’ll likely point to inflation falling faster than expected and express satisfaction with the Fed's aggressive rate hike strategy. He’ll emphasize how much brighter the economic outlook is, with no fear of recession, and more cuts potentially on the horizon. Know you understand why it was so easy to predict that CPI and PPI will end up better than market expects, it opens the door for 0.50 and its more than obvious.I don’t get how so-called experts can even suggest a 0.25% cut. It’s too low. A 0.50% cut should be the minimum. That's my call for what’s going to happen on the 18th.
Market Insight: A Gamble on BTC and Stocks
Now, let's talk Bitcoin and stocks. I’ll be straight with you, it’s a casino right now, a big gamble ahead of the 18th. Expect wicks on both sides and wild volatility. It’s impossible to predict what will move first or where it will land. Personally, I’m holding my positions, spot and the longs I called at $50K and $53K during Monday’s crash. You should’ve positioned yourself weeks ago. If you didn’t, people should watch out for scam wicks, there will be 100% manipulations on both sides, crushing both sides. If we see a 0.50% cut, expect short-term panic, especially with Israel possibly invading southern Lebanon. The pieces are lining up. Short-term panic is a high probability, but for the mid- and long-term, I remain bullish through Q3 2025. This chaos is an opportunity for us to buy more when fear peaks, but for now its holding the longs and spots.
Strategy for the Short Term: Manage Your Risk
In the short term, I expect Bitcoin and stocks to face pressure with a 0.50% rate cut. Add the potential Israel-Lebanon conflict, and markets could move more into more fear. The Fed will use this panic as cover, framing it as a reaction to geopolitical risks. From now until month’s end, my risk management is at its highest. That means all my spot holdings and longs are protected with stop-losses set at entry. I can't remember when I’ve been this cautious, people should take it very seriously. My strategy is simple: if the rate cut triggers a market pump, I’ll ride the wave with my existing positions. If we see a dump, my stop-losses will protect me at entry, no profit, no loss. This is about surviving unpredictable days like these. You don’t always need to predict the next move, but you do need a solid plan in days like these. Surprises are coming, and a strong strategy will maximize gains while minimizing risk. There are always people that are managing six- or seven-figure portfolios, it’s HIGHLY IMPORTANT to have risk management adjusted up to the highest level right now. In these volatile days, protecting your capital should be your priority. While I remain fully bullish on the mid- to long-term outlook, the short term is a waiting game. You know how emotional this market can get and how quickly things can swing.
In the mid-term, any panic will be silenced by the inevitable flood of money printing. I shared with you a report about USDT for example and the $18bn that was printed in the last few months, on top of that the billions of cash that will be injected into the markets for Q4 2024 from FTx. Once the rate cuts are done, you can be sure the money printers will go back to life. Give it a few months, and Jerome Powell will have to pull the trigger on that again.
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Super clean by sir @CredibleCrypto here
Have added that range to my chart I shared earlier.
I'm watching the FVG that broke that low. If we close above, I'm looking for upside. I like that 65-65.7k pocket, created by 1) Relative Equal Highs and 2) Monthly upside price draw.
Note what happened when we inverted the FVG at the top of the range -> downside.
Keep in mind, prior to reclaiming this level, everything lower is on the table. The local low we put in on Friday, or a new leg down.
Should be a fun week ahead.
Crypto cycle thoughts:
- Yes, we're ranging at the highs unusually long.
- No, I'm not worried.
Please continue reading for my Bitcoin and Altcoin cycle thoughts and narratives I'm watching. 👇