Andy Ross

Head of institutional at Kalshi.
Sport loving - Free markets, Freedom of thought, Freedom of speech - dyslexic - apologies for spellings. Views clearly own!

[Catherine Sullivan @cthrin]

Kalshi traders reacting in real time on the Nvidia stock perp. Price down after reports that the board is preparing to fire Jensen Huang as CEO.

We'll be continuing to monitor the markets overnight as traders price the breaking news.

[Andy Ross @AndyRos33335746]

You’re right. Clearly hadn’t had my coffee this morning. My apologies.

Going back to your questions

1. Markets calibrate well on low volume. https://t.co/Jo6rFZ9aDp

2. All blocks on the market don’t have to trade with lin the BBO as liquidity and fill matter. Work the order in the book or take a market price for the size.

[Andy Ross @AndyRos33335746]

This is a great example of a weather hedge. People keep saying to me - whats new about that - we've had weather trading for ages?

Well, first up, in the past you had find someone who would write you a hedge, perhaps via a broker, you would need to have an ISDA and CSA with them, agree the complex detailed terms and also be accepted from a credit risk perspective. So it was only available to the BIG folks with BIG hedges and BIG balance sheets.

Secondly - the contract is agreed, simple and priced by the market not one broker giving you a price but a market giving best execution.

@Kalshi we bring this hedge to everyone - take risk out of your business no matter what the scale.

[Kalshi for Small Business @kalshi_business]

Mammoth Rock ‘n’ Bowl is a restaurant and bowling alley in Mammoth, California, one of the top ski towns in America.

Like the hotels, rentals, and shops around it, the business runs on winter tourism. A bad snow year hits revenue hard. Rock ‘n’ Bowl is especially exposed since they also sponsor a youth snowboarding team.

So rather than wait and see, co-owner Ashley Marks asked Kalshi for a market on Mammoth Mountain December snowfall. We built it, and she’s trading $5,000 for a $31,250 payout if there��s weak snow.

"We created the snow market with Kalshi because like other mom and pop businesses, we live with seasonal snow risk and wanted to give the community a way to offset some of that uncertainty." - Ashley

If the snow comes, business runs like any other winter, and she loses the $5,000 trade.

If it doesn’t, the Kalshi position pays out, giving Ashley $26,250 to help offset lost tourist revenue.

Either way, Ashley's business is protected.

[Andy Ross @AndyRos33335746]

@MacroOpfer @luanalopeslara Haha

[Andy Ross @AndyRos33335746]

1. All users face the Kalshi clearing house. So anyone from retail, business or institutional can connect to the exchange and clearing house. We collateralise the position before trading. This onboarding process requires KYC but can be done in hours and is standardized.

I have never seen a bank doing an ISDA with a firms with a small business because the KYC and onboarding costs are significant.

Even if you are a big user - the price on the order book or by block to liquidity providers. But users all compete to provide or take the best price - not simply the price from the person you have an ISDA with.

All exchanges users who are members of exchange and clearing house can interact on the order book.

1b. All markets go to the CFTC and are noted. We write the markets and they have to comply to our rigorous market drafting and data oracle standards. We can take markets and draft them.

2. Yes -or lots of smaller users.

[Andy Ross @AndyRos33335746]

@jordanschochet https://t.co/DlxAOR3tiD

[Andy Ross @AndyRos33335746]

@mwfowlie have a look at this https://t.co/ftENZhxBpH in terms size that markets are calibrated.

[Andy Ross @AndyRos33335746]

The volume and uptake on the last few days on equity index perps and single stock perps highlight the demand. And a reminder that new infrastructure takes time to build and grow!!

[Don Wilson @drwconvexity]

I’m a fan of perpetual futures and glad to have our firm join @coinbase, @Kalshi, @Payward, @jumptrading and @paradigm in seeking leave to file an amicus brief opposing an effort to block equity perps from trading in the U.S. under joint SEC/CFTC oversight.

We want these markets to develop here, with sound risk management and U.S. regulatory oversight. Perpetual futures let investors maintain exposure without the cost and friction of repeatedly rolling contracts. Obviously, how an exchange manages margin, clearing and risk matters enormously. Those are things we should scrutinize with any futures product. But we shouldn’t let disagreements over labels stand in the way of useful innovation.

https://t.co/t59IMwcbBU

[Andy Ross @AndyRos33335746]

Data and $$$ - seems like a win/win for those wanting to research unique perspectives.

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

We are launching a $1 million grant program for up to 50 research projects on midterm prediction markets.

Bring your best ideas. We’ll provide any publicly available Kalshi data you need.

To enter, quote tweet this post with your research idea and apply on the website.

[Andy Ross @AndyRos33335746]

@jonny_deacon surely!

[Andy Ross @AndyRos33335746]

Trade the thing that actually moves markets.

Worried about the AI data centres approval and Texas race?

On election nights the results move the S&P 500.

2024: futures jumped ~2% overnight as the result went from coin flip to certain.

2022: futures sold off going into the vote, then slid again after.

Tonight, for the first time, on Kalshi, you can watch the Senate odds and the index move side by side, live.

[Kalshi Research @KalshiResearch]

Public markets move on Midterms. And not just when there are surprises.

Read our latest Election Day research special here: https://t.co/jAW6UpDaWi

[Andy Ross @AndyRos33335746]

interesting development in data normalisation from the team at DoubleZero.

[DoubleZero @doublezero]

Trading 15-min crypto windows over public APIs is a losing game. On DoubleZero Edge, traders can win.

Data from @Kalshi’s 15-min crypto up/down markets is now live on Edge. Same connection, ready for automated trading, and free to use.

Powered by Kalshi Research.

[Molly Abraham @mollyisonchain]

Today @Coinbase, @Kalshi, @Payward, DRW Holdings, @Jumptrading, and @Paradigm moved for leave to file an amicus brief defending the @CFTC’s authority to regulate single stock perpetuals in the US.

The law is clear. Under the CEA and the securities futures framework Congress established in 2000, security futures products are not “swaps.”

Others would rather litigate than compete with innovative products that promise to open up new markets and financial opportunities for American investors with the oversight and investor protection of the @CFTC and @SECGov built in.

Killing innovation won’t stop these products. It will just keep them offshore and unregulated. We’ve been working for years to onshore equity perps in a responsible and regulated way and won’t stop until we bring these products to our customers.

Read more in our brief 👇🏼

[Catherine Sullivan @cthrin]

🔴 NVDA -5.3% on the heaviest stock perp volume of the day so far
🟢 While MU +5.6%, SNDK +6.9%, US Tech 100 +3%

And it hasn't even been a full 24hrs of trading yet since the Kalshi perps market opened back up at 6pm yesterday.

[Andy Ross @AndyRos33335746]

@luanalopeslara @kalshimarketman 🐐🐐🐐🐐

[Andy Ross @AndyRos33335746]

Parties face a clearing house. So a trade between 2 parties is novated at execution to face the central clearing house (CCP). If party 1 goes into default, the CCP sits between them. Party 2 is unaffected and the CCP manages the risk of 1's default. Like CME or LCH. CCP's asks members to pay into guarantee fund to cover tail risks in default and Kalshi puts it's own money into this fund too. Risk is therefore mutualised by members.

[Andy Ross @AndyRos33335746]

Perpetual futures are live in the US - onshore, regulated, on Kalshi. And now single stock perps: go long or short a leveraged position on a single stock.

A lot of what gets said about perps is about offshore markets. Ours are different:
- A real CCP (Kalshi Clear). No auto-deleverage, so you don't lose your hedge at the worst possible moment.
- Conservative margin - 99.75% VaR for the quants.
- Central limit order book.
- Same data feed for everyone. No paying for faster data, no co-lo.
- Data is free.

Clear economic utility - hedge or take a view on spot, without the backwardation and contango.

Credit to the CFTC and SEC for bringing these inside the regulatory perimeter. Users traded $300m+ in SSPs on day one. Come look at the volumes

[Luana Lopes Lara @luanalopeslara]

Single stock perps (SSPs) are here. And they're a truly great product. You don’t need to pay rollover fees like with futures, they’re simpler to trade than options, and you can go short just as easy as you can go long.

This is one of the most consequential products we’ve launched and I couldn’t be more proud of the team that worked for over a year to bring them to life. Just this morning, since the stealth launch, our users traded over $300m.

Grateful to be the ones bringing these to America in a regulated way 💚

[Andy Ross @AndyRos33335746]

This type of information formation is not allowed in the UK or Europe. Prediction markets that operate within the regulatory framework aren’t allowed - only those that do so outside the law operate.

“People” can have a view but they must be “protected” at all costs.

Working at Kalshi gives me a unique and front row seat to the development of this data and information. And with it better decisions. As an English man I’m envious of the data and use cases developing to enhance USA-inc. Congratulations America!

Make better decisions with better data!

[Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_]

Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands.

I have spent a ton of time in DC over the last few months. The elites were certain the markets were off. I heard many variants of “no chance markets are right about X” and “I’ve been in politics for a decade. ‘These people’ don’t really know much.”

Last night, ‘these people’ beat the elites.

Prediction market favorites won 479 of the first 487 races. That’s 98%.

The elites live in a bubble. They theorize, write, ideate, and mistake credentials for an understanding of lives they’ve never lived. They don’t see and feel what the everyday man, on the ground, sees and feels.

Knowledge is not exclusive to the elites but scattered across millions of people.

Someone knows their hometown better than any national pundit. Someone has followed a local race passionately for months. Someone has followed a local race dispassionately for months. Someone notices a shift in their community before it makes the headlines. Someone is shaped by an incident at work. Someone is shaped by what’s getting harder or easier for their families.

Each holds a piece of the picture that no expert can see in full.

And for the longest time, that knowledge had no way to reach the rest of the world.

For generations, election night meant turning on the TV and waiting for a handful of people to tell you what happened.

Prediction markets change that.

You don't need a title, a large following, or an editor to publish you. All you need is a perspective and the conviction to back it.

That changes who holds power over information.

Anyone can see the market. Anyone can contribute to it. Anyone can question it. No title gives you the final word. No gatekeepers can filter your view.

Sometimes the signal can be wrong. But anyone can challenge the consensus and improve it.

And when people consolidate their knowledge together, something remarkable happens: millions of individual perspectives become a signal that we all can learn from.

Over the last few months, the people showed up on Kalshi to tell the world what they were going to do.

Last night, the megaphone was passed to them.

[Andy Ross @AndyRos33335746]

Make better decisions with better data👇🏻

[Justin Slaughter @JBSDC]

There was also no mass prediction markets miss. In being told that, of 487 prediction markets on individual elections, 479 of the candidates that were leading at 5 PM last night won.

479/489. That’s a 98% accuracy rate before ANY votes are counted.

[Justin Slaughter @JBSDC]

There was also no mass prediction markets miss. In being told that, of 487 prediction markets on individual elections, 479 of the candidates that were leading at 5 PM last night won.

479/489. That’s a 98% accuracy rate before ANY votes are counted.