I hope you learnt something valuable here.
Bias doesn’t matter when the technicals are telling a different story.
Since I made it public that I was officially closing my swing short, $BTC has moved up 7%, and if I had held the full position, it would’ve been a complete round trip.
Erasing all profits unnecessarily.
This is what proper trade management looks like, staying objective and not letting bias dictate decisions.
Yes, we are still in a range. Yes, we have a high chance of filling the (67K) CME gap in due time.
However, the key takeaway here is to never stay attached to one side, external factors can outweigh the direction you want the market to go.
If the reward isn’t skewed in your favour, the risk doesn’t justify the trade.
I’m not here to force trades, I’m here to deploy capital when conditions justify it. When the market is 50/50, I stay flat and let the market play its hand.
Bottoms are more complex than most think, each cycle forms differently, with its own structure and characteristics.
I've seen this before during the COVID-19 market crash, the Terra LUNA unwind, and the FTX collapse.
Headlines spike, volatility expands, and reacting early is usually where people donate money.
I wait for the market to show its hand, structure, acceptance, and ALOT of patience. Until then, there’s no edge.
Could we push lower? Sure. But I’m not building $BTC swing shorts down here when the asymmetric opportunity was higher up. Chasing downside after expansion is poor risk allocation.
I adapt when conditions shift. I pivot when the data changes. Early followers know this.
I’m interested in longs, but only at my levels, my POIs, where risk is defined and skew is in my favour. If price doesn’t get there, I review & search for new plans.
$BTC
Deep Undervalued / Capitulation Zone.
We could still drift lower for a few months before fully bottoming out, but the RR no longer justifies staying short.
As mentioned, I’m steadily accumulating bitcoins.
I am also searching for good RR HTF longs. Patience.
$BTC
CME gaps tend to get filled quickly, often within the first week, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see BTC revisit this area.
It’s a crucial level to hold; if it fails from a structural standpoint, a move down toward the 64–65K range becomes likely.
$BTC
Same story, different week.
We pumped Sunday into Monday, and once again, a Monday high formed.
Always pay attention to Monday closely: if we start dumping into a key level, look for long opportunities, and if we’re pumping into resistance, look for shorts.
We are seeing $BTC miners capitulate.
This has always been a strong buying signal on the HTF.
As stated, I’ve closed all my short positions and I am favouring low-leverage swing longs.
We are still in a range, so we can chop, but the stars are aligning
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$BTC
You already know the drill.
The 10th is coming up, and we’re still waiting to see whether price sweeps the highs or the lows.
At the moment, it looks more likely that the next pivot will take the highs (red dot).
I’d watch the reaction closely, if price sweeps and then moves back into the range, I would look for scalp short triggers (aiming for 2-3% drop). Inverse narrative.
We still have a few days left with a CME gap below us which will eventually get filled. Observe carefully.