One of the ways scaling test-time compute can benefit people most: have reasoning models think really hard about rare undiagnosed diseases.
Today we’re sharing published evidence that this can work, in some of the most difficult pediatric cases!
The reflecting pool is now green, the color of all the money wasted on it. Painting the bottom has apparently heated the water and accelerated algae growth. Pure Genius.
https://t.co/O5Utps9iq5
A history of AI firms:
• Demis Hassabis convinces Peter Thiel to invest in DeepMind by talking chess
• Thiel shows the company to Elon Musk, who shows their AI solving Pong to Larry Page on a private jet
• Larry Page buys DeepMind; Hassabis takes them over Zuck's higher bid (and despite Elon's last minute effort) because Zuck was equally excited about 3D printing as AI at dinner
• Larry Page and Elon Musk fight over AGI; Page calls Musk a "speciesist" for favoring humans > machines
• Sam Altman convinces Elon to start a new AI firm to get back at Google; they have dinner with top people at Google and recruit Ilya Sutskever; Dario Amodei joins later
• Musk gives Altman an ultimatum: I take full control or you lose my funding
• Reid Hoffman (introduced to AI by Thiel; served as backstop for DeepMind seeking governance guarantees) convinces Satya to backstop OpenAI
• OpenAI goes its own way, Dario leaves over safety concerns, and Elon starts over with xAI/Grok
In just the last few weeks, Trump:
* Launched an attack on skilled immigration that would gut the U.S. tech industry
* Continued losing a war he started
* Abused the power of the presidency to loot billions of taxpayer dollars
https://t.co/xY6QbDBUuO
Explainer: If you need care and you can't afford your deductible, you will have to borrow money to pay for it.
Typically the healthcare provider will loan you the money. Why ? They want to get your insurance company's money.
Now, by definition, the hospital is a subprime lender.
Not only is the patient in a huge financial hole, across their similarly situation patients, so is the hospital. They know they won't collect however much your deductible is.
And that's just for your in-network deductible, nor does it account for your family max out of pocket
I don't know the % of bankruptcies this causes
What I do know is that the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars for patients and hospitals, starts with the plans offered by insurance companies.
They know damn well when someone picks a plan and they can't afford the deductible.
And to them, it's not a bad thing. If you can't afford your deductible, the chances they pay anything from your premiums, go way way down
So patients go broke or can't afford care.
Hospitals have huge uncollected debt, so they make it up elsewhere
And then they aggregate those amounts, among others, and use them to get payments from state and federal programs.
See how all that works together ?
psikolojide buna self-efficacy deniyor: insanın "ben bunu yapabilirim" algısı. albert bandura’nın yıllardır anlatılan teorisinde en kritik nokta şu: insan yeteneği olduğu için başlamıyor sadece; başlayınca karşısına çıkacak şeyleri yönetebileceğine inandığı için başlıyor. yani olay boş özgüven değil. beyin, hedefi ulaşılabilir gördüğü anda davranış değişiyor. daha çok deniyor, daha uzun dayanıyor, daha az kaçıyor.
bu yüzden bazı insanlarda dışarıdan bakınca saçma bir rahatlık görürsün. daha ortada sonuç yoktur ama adamın içinde sonuçtan önce gelen bir sahiplenme vardır. "olursa iyi olur" demez. "ben bunu hayatıma alacağım" der. aradaki fark küçük gibi görünür ama bütün oyun orada döner.
çünkü insan kendi ihtimalini ciddiye almaya başladığı gün, dünya bir anda değişmez.
ama davranışları değişir.
daha net konuşur. daha hızlı karar verir. daha az izin bekler. daha az açıklama yapar. daha fazla dener. fırsat görünce "biri daha uygun olabilir" diye geri çekilmez. kendi adını masaya koyar.
bir noktadan sonra başarı dediğin şey de biraz budur:
hayatın sana sıra vermesini beklemeyi bırakıp, sıranın zaten senden alınamayacağını anlamak.
Absolutely incredible.
NASA Astronaut Reid Wiseman, who commanded Artemis II, took this footage from the far side of the Moon with his iPhone.
Watch with sound on.
This is terrible for Americans and also hurts national
security. Increasing the military budget won’t defeat Iran. What is actually called for — under a sane government — would be a systematic defense review with an eye to less expensive systems that are suited to modern war. Our military budget should actually be much smaller, not just because we should be able to fund what Americans need, but also because the endless unconditional upward appropriations — DoD has never passed an audit — encourage monopolies in the private sector and outdated military doctrine. We create a situation where we pay nationally disabling amounts of money so as not to be ready for actual war. Our security suffers in every sense. There is moral blackmail involved here (“support the troops”) and it has to be faced down. We don’t support the troops by taking health care from their families. And we don’t support them by mindlessly giving ever more money to ever fewer defense contractors without thinking about what war means and how it is fought in the 2020s.
karpathy is showing one of the simplest AI architectures that actually works..
dump research into a folder, let the model organise it into a wiki, ask questions, then file the answers back in.
the real insight is the loop...every query makes the wiki better. it compounds.. now thats a second brain building itself.
i think this is so good for agents if applied right
instead of pulling from shared memory every session, they build a living knowledge base that stays.
your coordinator is not just coordinating tasks anymore.. it is maintaining institutional knowledge so every execution adds something back to the base.
the bigger implication is crazy tho.
agents that own their own knowledge layer do not need infinite context windows, they need good file organisation and the ability to read their own indexes.
way cheaper, way more scalable, and way more inspectable than stuffing everything into one giant prompt.
A CEO from one of our portfolio companies shared this with their team. I’m re-sharing it with their permission, because it resonated and reflects what all founders and CEOs should be communicating.
--
We are living through a period of compounding change. And in moments like this, the biggest risk is no longer making the wrong decision. It is moving too slowly while the world moves around you.
There are two paths. We can play defense:
- Protect what we have
- Optimize what works
- Wait for clarity
It feels safe. It isn’t.
Or we can play offense:
- Learn faster than the environment changes
- Use new tools to solve old problems in better ways
- And create entirely new strategies and businesses
That’s where the opportunity is.
Challenge yourself to do things faster and better than you have ever attempted. Stay uncomfortable. Stay on the front foot.
I don’t think people realize how much healthcare costs are driving big companies to fire and not hire.
It costs them $30k per family, per year for premiums and care. Most of that goes to the massive, vertically integrated insurance companies that send weekly bills that no one reviews in details. And it doesn’t include the company overhead to deal with it all. It’s usually the 2nd largest expense after payroll. Which is insane
It’s far easier to blame AI than it is to blame Healthcare costs.
Want to increase jobs, wages and improve affordability for every American ?
Break up the biggest insurance companies. Make divest non insurance companies. They don’t need thousands of subsidiaries. That’s how they game and abuse the system and increase costs for all of us.
Call your senator and tell them to support the BreakUp Big Medicine Bill by @HawleyMO and @SenWarren.
Today’s new KFF poll. Lots of people are using AI for health information. That’s probably not surprising. What is: many are doing it because they can’t afford medical care. https://t.co/JwVkQD7SqQ
A big reason why the American economy accelerated post-pandemic was because American companies (and their mgmt teams) are just *really good* companies - adaptable, dynamic, competitive.