Anne Zelenka

Colorado native seeking the good life. Writes about midlife reinvention, reckless investing, and sometimes, artificial intelligence.

[Brian Allen @allenanalysis]

BREAKING: This May Be One Of The Strangest Epstein Revelations Yet.

An Epstein associate reportedly testified that her legal fees were being paid through a fund established by Jeffrey Epstein's estate.

Think about that for a second.

Epstein died years ago.

The investigations continued.

The lawsuits continued.

The witnesses remained.

And according to the testimony, the money kept flowing.

The question is how many other people are benefiting from similar arrangements.

[Anne Zelenka @annez]

@HayekAndKeynes This has been a welcome change from the past decade. But I wonder if international equities are getting stretched here.

[Anne Zelenka @annez]

@BuildSysWealth @LizThomasStrat This is my approach too. Hold a diversified portfolio of U.S., DM, and EM stocks. No single-country bets (except U.S., and I'm leaning away from that lately).

[Anne Zelenka @annez]

I blogged about it, naturally enough. https://t.co/MHrLTc7qjl

[Anne Zelenka @annez]

I am a member of the voluminati, people who write too much. We are legion, on Twitter, on LinkedIn, and, most especially, on Substack.

[Anne Zelenka @annez]

@MikeZaccardi "We prefer EM due to economic resilience and disciplined fiscal and monetary policy." EMs becoming the save haven! Crazy.

[Anne Zelenka @annez]

@stevehou Plus, we're not creating the engineering workforce we need for this. China produces an order of magnitude more engineers than we do, and pushing immigrants out of higher education here isn't helping matters.

[Ritesh Jain @riteshmjn]

The market might be shifting from a debasement trade to a debt deflation trade. Rising fears that AI could trigger major unemployment, consumer delinquencies, and business failures.
If gold, the USD, and Treasury prices starts rally together — the debasement phase may be over for now.

[Anne Zelenka @annez]

And then we all use AI to summarize them. The articles on Twitter are way too long too.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

I have a substack. I write a few things. I've stopped reading substack lately. They are mostly awful and some combination of too wordy and too AI "enhanced". Can't we just be succinct and real?

[Bryan Brinkman @bryanbrinkman]

We’ve hit this odd moment where folks are using AI to write book-length articles and then viewers are using ai to reduce it back down to the size of a tweet.

[Anne Zelenka @annez]

@ces921 Great article, I appreciate that you provide a counterargument for rigor. Do you think just the expectation of AI-induced deflation is enough to trigger the correction/crash scenarios you outline?

[Anne Zelenka @annez]

Expected, but it still feels bad! I'm getting the feeling 2026 is going to be unhappy for precious metals. $PHYS $PSLV

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

I’m shocked, SHOCKED to see gold sell-off as Chinese New Year begins…

[Anne Zelenka @annez]

@StealthQE4 To play the deflation vibe trade that is unfolding. https://t.co/CrviVqsQy1

[Anne Zelenka @annez]

@riteshmjn @Convertbond Definitely sensing deflation vibes here. But the CPI showed pockets of inflation (medical services, vet care, electricity). And lots of other reasons to expect limited disinflation. Yes - deflation narrative for 2026 - then back to inflation.

[Mr. VIX @yieldsearcher]

Torsten Slok has been preaching “higher for longer” stag narrative since 2024 and has been wrong.

Also, no bond investors own bonds purely for current income. Do people own stocks just for dividends?

The point about bonds is risk management: their big convexity in a recession.

[Anne Zelenka @annez]

@jbulltard1 Indeed. The CPI doesn't capture important inflation like in health and homeowner's insurance. Services inflation is still high (vet, home health care, auto repair). In this environment, bonds look like a terrible investment. I still might hold my nose and buy some bc momentum.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

Almost 90% of global public bonds trade at a yield lower than 5%: Apollo's Torsten Slok. "With inflation at close to 3%, this means that investors in public fixed income only get a 2% real return each year."

[Anne Zelenka @annez]

"hope builds a bridge across the abyss into which reason cannot look." -- Byung-Chul Han, The Spirit of Hope. Today I'm hoping the carnage in silver doesn't get a whole lot worse, with Chinese Lunar New Year here! $PSLV

[Anne Zelenka @annez]

Speaking as an individual investor, largely untutored in the fundamentals that determine bond yields, 4% hardly seems like enough compensation for the chaos the next decade promises.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

The Puzzle of US Yields
After dipping to 4.01% earlier this morning, the yield on the 10-year US government bond is currently hovering around 4.03%—a level that seems disconnected from both fundamentals and valuations.
From a fundamental perspective, last week’s softer-than-expected headline inflation (which supports lower yields) is offset by considerations calling for higher yields (including robust GDP growth, January’s jobs beat, large deficits, higher oil prices, and less resilient foreign demand).
Standard valuation models also struggle to justify a 4% yield.
This leaves technical considerations in the driver’s seat, even if the specifics remain elusive at this end.
Your thoughts. please?
#economy #markets #growth #inflation #bonds

[Anne Zelenka @annez]

@onechancefreedm I see many calls for lower yields but it's hard for me to imagine that 4% is adequate return given likely chaos over the next decade. Still, the next couple years do look like they could be kind to bonds. Your explanation helps me understand the tension better.