US HAS A BIG PROBLEM; ALMOST EVERYTHING IS MOVING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION.
- Oil is back above $100.
- Treasury yields are climbing.
- The dollar is getting stronger.
- Inflation is still running too hot.
- And the Fed has already raised rates again.
Now Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is asking the Fed to keep an “open mind” on inflation and focus on possible productivity gains from AI and deregulation.
But the pressure is still building.
The latest U.S.-Iran tensions have pushed oil higher again, bringing inflation fears back into the bond market.
Fed officials are also warning that more rate hikes may be needed if inflation does not cool.
That leaves the US economy in a very difficult position:
Oil is high.
Inflation is high.
Yields are high.
And rates could go higher.
And if that continues, the people in the US could get tired of losing.
BREAKING: Bitcoin hits $84,000 as US-Iran talks continue.
President Trump is reportedly open to sanctions relief and unfreezing Iranian funds in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue.
LATEST: ⚡ Vitalik Buterin says Ethereum will evolve into a "cryptographic world computer" after Hegota, which is set to add FOCIL before deeper zero-knowledge changes at the base layer.
Bitcoin closed above the May high, which is technically a point for the bulls, and the burden of proof remains with the bears to prove otherwise.
Given that BTC is still <1% away from the May high, it makes it hard to jump to conclusions going into Q4 (as much as I would like to do so). I thought that maybe by now it would either have accepted back below or be much higher, but instead price has barely moved.
Usually after passing the 50W like in 2019/2023, BTC then runs 20-30% within 1-2 weeks. This time, the move has been much more muted, probably because of fears over seasonality and yields heading higher (which is often bearish for long-duration assets like crypto).
Kind of a frustrating time to be honest, because on one hand what makes sense to me would be weakness into Q4, but BTC continues to show strength, making me sincerely question that view. And historically, the weakness often starts before Q4 arrives (which it has not yet so far this time).
I suppose I should be less deterministic about my views going forward, as this whole move has been extremely humbling.
🚨 BREAKING
🇺🇸 FED WILL INJECT $3,982,000,000.00 INTO THE ECONOMY TODAY AT 9:00 AM ET, JUST MINUTES BEFORE THE U.S. MARKET OPENS!
KEVIN WARSH HAS ORDERED THE FED TO START EMERGENCY CASH INJECTIONS TO PREVENT A HUGE MARKET CRASH TODAY.
SOMETHING BAD IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW…
The cost of capital keeps rising w/Japan’s 30y and UK’s 30y at their highest levels this millennium. Long-term money is getting expensive, w/consequences for debt, investment and asset valuations.
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