There are no changes at present. The short position will become relevant when the metrics approach anomalous values
- Diff 8b-3a x ASK 1.5: there is still no crossover between them
- Delta 3, 5 and 8 per cent: these are still not at the same point
I'll consider a short position if:
1. The metrics cross 8b-3a x ASK 1.5
2. The depth deltas of 3, 5, and 8% converge at a single point
3. Liquidations show the 64600 zone
If this setup approaches these values, I'll consider a short!
@iruletrenches Ten home runs in a row isn’t a plan, it’s a story you tell yourself before the account blows up. If profitability depends on catching a streak, you don’t have an edge - you have a losing system waiting for a lucky week to hide it
@wannabechamp True - it took me a long time to separate being right from being profitable. Some of my best months came from being wrong often but cutting those trades fast, while my worst months came from being right most of the time and holding one bad position too long
@MoneyTradeEdge All three points come down to the same root problem: most rule-breaking happens in the two seconds before a decision, not during the analysis. I can build a perfect system on paper and still lose it to one impulsive entry
Why am I not taking a long position today?
1. Liquidations are down to 59,000
2. Platform metrics show seller strength rather than buyer strength:
- DIff8b-3a x ASK 1.5 are close to short values
- BID/ASK Index 3% is approaching short values > 60
Over the past few days, we haven't seen any active participation from either buyers or sellers. There are no convincing anomalies in my metrics. This means there's no need to rush into the market. We'll wait for a stronger side and then decide on a position from there
@ScarfaceTrades_ Mostly agree, though I’d push back on “constant learning” a bit - past a certain point more learning just becomes more ways to second-guess a simple rule. Simplicity and discipline compound, extra knowledge mostly just adds noise once the basics are solid
@MoneyTradeEdge Would push back slightly - fear and greed usually aren’t the root issue, they’re what fills the gap when the entry condition wasn’t specific enough to begin with. Fix the vagueness and there’s a lot less room left for either one to take over
Metric of the Day on the Trading Platform
AVG in simple terms:
The average ratio of buy and sell limit orders across more than 300 cryptocurrencies on the Binance exchange, calculated at a depth of 60% of the current price.
🟢 >0.8 – buyer’s zone
🔴 <0.55 – seller’s zone
I’m sticking to my plan: I’m still waiting for a short opportunity. The trigger is when margin loans reach around $150M again.
I never try to predict price movements. Every day, I try to disprove my own idea. And only if it stands up to all the tests do I trade on it
I’m not looking at the charts, but at the crowd
The screenshot shows USDT margin trading against BTC over the last few weeks. Every time the volume of loans spikes towards a local high the price almost immediately reverses against those who took out these loans
@DenizTheTrader Building a trading system: step by step 👇
If you’re serious about trading long term, this thread will save you YEARS of struggling:
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@NQKubs@AtifHussainOG True and not true at the same time. For the vast majority of traders I’d agree, especially younger ones coming in from games like Fortnite. But personal content preferences play a huge role in retention too
@tradewithpaulo Fair point on sizing mattering more than people admit, though I’d argue entry quality and sizing aren’t really separable - a sloppy entry just gets sized down out of instinct anyway, so the two end up correlated more than the split suggests
@TradingComposur The clean version usually isn’t a different person, just the version that already wrote the entry condition down before the trade. The other one is improvising in real time and calling it conviction
The plan today is exactly the same. We're waiting for an anomaly in the buyer zone.
My metrics indicate there's no buyer, but there's slight selling pressure.
The situation may change by the evening. I'm watching.
We're at a stage where the metrics indicate an imminent long position.
But while the long metrics haven't reached the level where we usually take a position, and they're quickly unloading, this indicates that the seller will continue to apply downward pressure