Tonez

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@_Shadow36 So i can buy 26k of this and get 7 figs? im down....

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@bandicooks @thisisksa @Pumpfun If this is the sort of product crypto can come up with its really doomed

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@StonkChris btc is not gonna bottom like this as everyone expects....this is pure hopium, there are far bigger problems...BTC going down while every asset is going up right now is not the same as it going down because of macro conditions....

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@SatoshiFlipper litreally 0% chance we lowers rates not realistc

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@IvanOnTech Everyone expects a bottom in Q4...it cant be that simple? Unless we get some major catalyst crypto i think it just chops and bleeds for a long time

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@fewseethis Do you still have your discord channel?

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@shahh Really doesnt look like any of these memes are going to run to 100m ranges tho.....

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@Midnight_Captl NVIDIA is looking pretty terrible right now, though..clearly people are selling to raise liquduity

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@theonomix @ratwizardx pretty sure this stuff will die out soon and its on the way

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@ChentoTrades tp on the short 48k? your planning to hold to there? 😯

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@thechosenberg The entire global economy will probably collapse at some point.....

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@slingoorio @ocrxa @ieatjeets Didnt you still have like 400k left? or something?

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@ImmortalXelf Is this real? You actually deposited money onto his DEX..?? Im interested by the thinking here.....

[EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm]

The Bond Market Is Testing The Fed Put

The 2 year Treasury chart is the Fed path chart. It shows what the market thinks policy will look like over the next several quarters. The breakout back above 4% matters because investors spent months assuming rate cuts would eventually rescue the cycle. That assumption is now being challenged.

In a clean recession scare, the 2 year usually falls because the market prices easier policy. This chart is saying the Fed may not have that freedom yet. Oil, sticky inflation, fiscal deficits, and still firm nominal data are keeping the front end tighter than a normal slowdown would suggest.

The Long End Is The Bigger Warning

The 30 year is not just about the Fed. It is about term premium, fiscal credibility, Treasury supply, inflation uncertainty, and foreign demand.

A long bond above 5% means investors want more compensation to hold U.S. debt for decades. That hits mortgages, commercial real estate, bank balance sheets, corporate refinancing, equity valuations, and government interest expense.

The 2 year says policy may stay tight.

The 30 year says the market is questioning the cost of funding the system itself.

The Energy Shock Bridge

The missing bridge is demand destruction.

High energy prices are inflationary at first, but if they stay high long enough, they become deflationary through the real economy. Oil above $100 acts like a tax on consumers and businesses. It raises gasoline, diesel, trucking, food distribution, utilities, chemicals, plastics, and industrial input costs.

At first, CPI rises and the Fed stays trapped. Then households cut spending, businesses lose margin, freight slows, credit stress rises, and demand starts breaking.

If that demand destruction becomes global, the regime changes again. Europe imports less. China exports less because foreign buyers weaken. Emerging markets get hit through food, fuel, FX, and dollar debt. Japan gets squeezed by energy imports and weaker external demand. The U.S. consumer pulls back. Inventories build. Margins compress. Then layoffs and credit losses catch up.

That is why falling oil later would not prove the shock was harmless.

It may mean the shock finally reached demand.

The Signal

The dangerous part is that both ends of the curve are rising while the economy is already showing late cycle cracks.

If yields were rising because growth was booming, equities could handle it better. But if yields are rising because inflation, energy costs, debt supply, and fiscal credibility are trapping the Fed while growth weakens, that is a very different setup.

This is where the late 1960s and 1970s matter. Recessions did not instantly bring bond market relief because inflation psychology and oil shocks were embedded. Growth weakened, stocks fell, and yields stayed high because the market did not trust the inflation backdrop.

The early phase looks inflationary.

The late phase becomes deflationary.

The damage happens in between.

My Take

The 2 year is saying the Fed may not be able to cut as fast as the market wants. The 30 year is saying investors want more compensation to hold long duration U.S. debt.

If global demand destruction becomes undeniable, the 2 year should eventually roll over as markets price cuts. The 10 year likely catches a bid too if recession risk overwhelms inflation fear. The 30 year is harder. It only rallies cleanly if inflation expectations and fiscal fears calm down.

That is the signal.

The bond market is not just pricing inflation. It is pricing the possibility that the usual rescue mechanism is delayed, constrained, or no longer fully trusted.

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@KookCapitalLLC Going to 300....easy

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@iruletrenches If you hold too long tho you end round tripping almost every time.....

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@AviFelman Really cool, I'm doing the same thing currently, based near the jewellery trade centre in Bangkok, maybe we can collab?

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@0xmadeleineee Pinkis deli is much better

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@Cbb0fe Farming funding? SK hynix long here?

[Tonez @Ant7ny]

@CookerFlips https://t.co/TQDK6uFGhq will slowly kill crypto