5 important points based on my strong hunch.
1) By May of next year, I think, India must prepare for huge locust swarms attacking our farms and crops from Pak. This will be one method among the various hits on food security blaming nature, weather events, and climate change (like glacier collapses are being blamed on.)
2) It is important to note, India already has a robust system for surveillance, early warning, and targeted control. Yet, it would be prudent to ensure higher vigilance and adequate supplies of Malathion. As they may try to create a shortage of the insecticide before and during the swarming from May to August.
3) It is also important for GoI to ensure proactive and preemptive messaging of all the work being done before and after any such locust swarming event. Because they will easily fool every Indian into believing India had no systems in place, no preparation, and this led to whatever farm destruction that happens.
4) They will use the problems caused to pin the blame on GoI and PM Modi directly and try stir up farmers and public protests. Now that we all understand such DS plans well, it is important GoI steps up messaging and communication to counter their misinformation preemptively, proactively, and purposefully.
5) On a side note, if you observe keenly, many DS orgs and companies are promoting Locusts as food and protein source since last many years. They are invested in them.
Japanese legend: If you miss the bus, maybe you avoided the accident. If you got rejected, maybe you were saved from the wrong place. If they left, maybe they made room for who is coming. The universe protects you in ways that look like bad luck at first. Trust the detour.
There we go. An investment bank confirms.
But the food crisis is not going to be just due to fertilizer shortage. I know India is already ramping up imports of urea etc.
Still it may not be enough. As I had outlined in my post, it will be a manufactured crisis blamed on natural factors and the supply chain.
The food crisis will be precipitated to weaken democracies like India by turning people against the government. Using personal issues like inflation and food scarcity amplified with narrative warfare.
This is why it is important for India to start preparing now.
Increase the already high buffer stocks, but more importantly prevent sabotages to them by 0.5 front commies and radicals, tighten loopholes in exports, prepare for better coast guard and customs to prevent smuggling out etc.
And the most important preparation India needs to do to maintain stability will be in narrative. Both in preemptive narrative and in fighting fake narrative & cognitive warfare once the crisis starts.
India needs to increase buffer stocks of essential food, improve security against sabotage and smuggling.
Because, sometime between 2027-28, I believe the world is going to start facing a manufactured food crisis.
India has already done a tremendous work in improving food security in recent years - in production, storage, and strengthening the FCI.
But food is going to become the next oil by 2027-28. Hence higher preparation in storage, security, export controls, and preventing smuggling (due to very high prices paid abroad) is required.