Anthea Pitt

Oil and gas; politics and economics; stuff and nonsense. Recovering journalist. Usual disclaimers apply.

[Anthea Pitt @antheap]

@OilSheppard It strikes me as compulsive, as well as acquisitive. Note too swift escalation from Nescafe'll Do Man to Coffeesplainer Bro. It's perplexing.

[Derek | The Hellenistic Age Podcast @HellenisticPod]

An unexpected side effect that travelling abroad in Greece had for my knowledge of the Classics was a better understanding of Aristophanes.

Famously he used the onomatopoeia Βρεκεκέξ ("brekekekex") for the chorus of "The Frogs". In the ruins of ancient Dion, I heard them:

[Anthea Pitt @antheap]

@PadraigBelton @mynamehear Are we talking height? Then Nelson’s column will do the trick.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Don’t worry, folks—if the Houthis block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, Trump will just double blockade it.

[Sina Toossi @SinaToossi]

Fascinating to watch the old guard of neoconservative ideologues finally admit what the record shows: U.S. intervention often creates or worsens the very problems it claims to solve.

Who says people don’t change?

Now if only that message reached the new crop at FDD, UANI, WINEP…

[Anthea Pitt @antheap]

@parcelforce I am trying to speak to someone at customer services. Your automated systems are unhelpful at best. How do I arrange a call where I can speak to a person as a matter of urgency.

[Anthea Pitt @antheap]

Seems like time to resurface some old "bring back boring" comments

[Anthea Pitt @antheap]

Dear god, I miss boring something fierce.

[Alexandre Araman @TheBarrelMind]

What just happened in Qatar is a structural break for global gas and LNG markets.

This is not a marginal disruption. It is the core of the system.

Qatar had already halted LNG production earlier this month and declared force majeure, removing ~19% of global LNG supply. The latest strikes now raise serious questions about the timeline for any restart.

Before this, the market consensus assumed a short disruption. A few months of outage, followed by a gradual restart and a return to normal balances by mid-2026.

That assumption no longer holds.

Even under optimistic conditions, restarting LNG is not immediate. Upstream restarts, train-by-train ramp-up, and now potential repairs to damaged infrastructure all extend timelines. What was expected to take weeks could now take months.

And duration is everything.

At current run rates, every month of disruption removes roughly 1.5% of global annual LNG supply. After five to six months, the market is structurally short year-on-year, even before accounting for demand growth.

This shifts the entire balance.

Supply growth was expected to add ~35 mt in 2026. That is now at risk. Delays to North Field expansion projects could push tightness into 2027 and beyond.

The consequences cascade quickly:

First, pricing.
This is no longer volatility. It is a sustained repricing higher, driven by physical scarcity.

Second, demand.
Asia will absorb the shock first. Buyers most exposed to Qatari volumes will be forced into demand destruction, fuel switching, or high-priced spot procurement. Growth expectations will reverse.

Third, Europe.
Lower LNG availability means reduced storage injections and continued fuel switching. Storage levels risk remaining well below comfortable thresholds unless demand is curtailed further.

Fourth, system response.
Maintenance will be deferred. Every available molecule will be pushed into the market. Sanctioned or politically complex supply sources may be reconsidered simply because alternatives are limited.

Fifth, strategy.
This is a reminder of concentration risk. Ras Laffan is an extraordinarily efficient integrated hub. In peacetime, that is an advantage. In conflict, it becomes a single point of failure with global consequences.

Finally, reliability.
Gas markets are large, but not flexible. They cannot easily absorb shocks of this scale. Security of supply, diversification, and portfolio flexibility will move back to the centre of decision-making.

This is not a temporary disruption.

It is a reset of how the market prices risk, reliability, and concentration in the global LNG system.

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

I wonder if people are aware that the OPEC oil embargo of 1973 lasted six months.

Yet the inflationary effects of that six month embargo were felt for the rest of the decade.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

(Public) Venezuela Regime Change And The Impact On The Oil Market

https://t.co/TAWSFoQVvo

[Anthea Pitt @antheap]

@_DIGB Variations on "how embarrassing, how bloody embarrrassing, how fucking embarrassing" mostly. (Pinlig = embarrassing, cringeworthy)

[Anthea Pitt @antheap]

@MrKevinRothrock Fitzgerald’s Everyday Stalinism is excellent. And an excellent read too (also useful for getting a seat on public transport)

[Kate Clanchy @KateClanchy1]

The internet shutdown in Afghanistan happened in real time in my online poetry class on Monday. The women's accounts dropped out one by one. The last to go was Neda. Just before her image froze, I promised to put her poem on Twitter. She's 11. Online was her last hope of education. @WRNAfghanistan

[Anthea Pitt @antheap]

I am really glad I didn’t grow up to be one of the UN’s simultaneous translators.

[Anthea Pitt @antheap]

@Deliveroo could you follow me please so I can DM you? Thanks

[Anthea Pitt @antheap]

@MrKevinRothrock Carting home an armful of newspapers of a Saturday and Sunday morning is one of life's joys.
As is reading them. And doing the crosswords.

[Anthea Pitt @antheap]

@SlavaMalamud Am reminded of the speeches at the Congress of the Victors.

[Anthea Pitt @antheap]

@TAdventurousoul Carnarvon Gorge is in Queensland.

[Anthea Pitt @antheap]

@deputypics @travelmediawrds Next year for sure!