Anthony Panza

Finance and Macroeconomics | Opinions do not reflect the views of my employer

[Yogi @Houseofyogi]

Spirit Airlines died tonight at the hands of the socialist crusader, Elizabeth Warren

She must be so proud to add another casket to her achievements.

Tonight at 3am, Spirit turns off the lights. 14,000 jobs gone. 30+ smaller airports lose service.

JetBlue offered $3.8 BILLION in cash to buy Spirit in 2022. Shareholders, flight attendants union, literally everyone voted yes.

The combined company would have held 9% of the US market against a Big 4 that already owned 80%.

For anyone who understands numbers: 9% isn’t a monopoly against 80%.

Warren said no.

She wrote letters. She pressured Buttigieg. Biden’s DOJ sued. A federal judge killed the deal in January 2024.

Her argument: the merger would cost consumers $1 billion a year.

Now look at her collateral damage she dusts under the rug.

510 pilots gone in the months after. 1,800 flight attendants furloughed in December.

14,000 jobs in 2023. 7,500 last week. Zero tonight.

And that’s just the people in Spirit uniforms.

Catering goes. Fuel guys go. Baggage crews, gate agents, airport coffee shops, hotels and rental cars in 70 cities Spirit flew to. Every airline job carries 3 more on its back.

40,000 people out of work because of one woman’s moronic crusade against the market.

And the math ain’t mathing.

Spirit abandoned 90 routes during the death spiral. Fares on those routes are up 14% on average. Oakland to Newark: $135 to $288. Fort Myers to San Juan: $92 to $219. Kansas City to Newark up 66%.

That’s reality. Not some BS number from a “study.”

So @SenWarren tell me how this saves the consumer money?

Cheap carriers in a market drop fares 21% across the board. Southwest did this in the 90s and saved Americans $68 BILLION over 20 years.

Warren killed it. That’s what moronic politicians led by socialism do.

Then with her own blind arrogance, she tweeted Spirit’s collapse is “a Biden win for flyers.”

A win.

14,000 people are reading termination letters tonight.

And she’s taking credit.

This is socialism in 2026.

A senator who’s never made payroll thinks she knows how to run a market better than the people who own and work in the company.

She saved you a billion on imaginary paper.

She cost you ten times that in real life.

She didn’t protect consumers from anything.

14,000+ will go from working to welfare.

She will make sure to blame billionaires, hardworking tax payers, AI, capitalism and whatever monster they will make up tomorrow hiding under your bed.

Higher taxes. Fewer jobs. More expensive everything.

She called it a win. I hope you enjoy winning.

[Rob Schmied @rschmied]

They finally got the guy who bought $8k of stock and made $2k. Facing 20 years in prison.

[Anthony Panza @anthonydpd]

@GovernmentZA Tons of words and sentences but not a single update on where your reserves stand. Spoiler alert: only about 8mm barrels, or 2 weeks of supply vs the recommended benchmark of 90 days. Take charge and order work from home before people experience fuel shortages

[Tuomas Malinen @mtmalinen]

I think what @POTUS and @netanyahu have done is that they have activated a highly effective defense plan of Iran, which has likely been in place for years if not decades.

What we know, though, is that Iran has been preparing for this war for 40 years. You have to be utterly naive to think that they would simply roll over and die or that they would simply run out of missiles.

They have also enacted their "mosaic defense network," which means that the majority of the military decision-making has been distributed to hundreds if not thousands of local commanders. There's no winning against such a setup in a country as large as Iran.

The most catastrophic U.S. defeat since the Vietnam War looms.

[Patricia Marins @pati_marins64]

What to expect from the us-israel conflict against Iran for the next days?

The first thing is that you understand that assassinating leaders is such a violent measure that it ends up terrorizing and uniting the country. What was the reason to attack even the opponents of the government?

Was the project to colonize like it was Venezuela? Iran is a big player and was underestimated.

The second is not to start conflicts without adequate planning and supplies to carry them out. Israel started this attack with only 1/3 of the defense missiles it had when it attacked Iran in June last year.

The US got into this canoe knowing that not even against the Houthis with a force of 20 ships and aviation had they managed to inhibit missile launches from a tiny territory. Not even in Iraq operating 6 aircraft carriers was such a feat achieved.

Who had the idea to claim that this in a country the size of Iran would be hit in hours or days?

By my calculations, US-ISRAEL and allies possessed at the beginning of this conflict, about 2,500-3,000 interceptors, considering total ground batteries and vls of the fleet.

In just two days Iran fired more than 400 missiles and almost 1,000 drones, certainly consuming from 1,000 to 1,500 interceptors only in 2 days.

The situation is worrying and the biggest problem is that umUS-Israel fell into an attrition war knowing that their interceptor industries do not support such attrition.

President trump not for nothing talks about short conflict, but after agreeing with the assassination of leaders, he created an environment where there is no space for negotiations, mainly because Iran knows exactly where and in which wound to press.

For Iran it doesn't matter if the country will be in rubble, as long as missiles remain to launch against the US-Israel.

And don't expect Iran's missiles to run out. Imagine the stock of someone who has been producing missiles for 40 years.

This coalition created a spiral from which they see no way out and, we are on the third day without any sign of reduction in Iran's launches, quite the contrary we are seeing new missile models and e en the US embassy under fire.

The cost of all this so far to not get anywhere is already in the house of many billions.

I'll repeat here, If Iran today maintains its capabilities as in the last two days, this situation shapes up for us-israel to have to ask for help from gulf countries and in the last case europeans.

[Sammy 'Ace' Rothstein @shortbus_ace]

if anyone wants to not sleep tonight, read this

[Anthony Panza @anthonydpd]

@weatherwilly Does this mean more snow and less sleet for NYC?

[Anthony Panza @anthonydpd]

@julianakilrose They are acting as an intermiedary between the company and customer. Ie if company sells X product for $10, Klarna will give the Company $9 now but the customer will pay a total of $10 to Klarna

[Hopewell Chin’ono @daddyhope]

Last night, I had dinner with three South African medical professionals. As we were talking about issues in our region, one of them asked me about this child in the video.

This child’s father, Tempter Paul Tungwarara, is supposedly President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s adviser, but everyone knows that he is a criminal, one who lies about what he does.

He is a criminal who uses the Zimbabwean state to steal public funds. Anybody who is interested in understanding Zimbabwe already knows that. But these three South Africans asked me some very depressing and embarrassing questions.

One of them started by asking me, “Does your president not know that this is what is happening around him, that people around him are doing this? Even if he knows that they loot public funds, is he comfortable with being identified with this kind of conspicuous consumption and unsophisticated behaviour derived from stolen public funds?”

Another South African asked me, “Does your country have a professional secret service that can see this, write a report, and give it to the president to say this is what is happening and we need to act on it?”

Then the third one asked me, “Does your government not understand, and does your president not understand, how damaging this is, even beyond the embarrassment of being associated with it, but the damage it does to the country and how this can easily be linked to money laundering and how it will come back to affect not just the president and his cronies, but the whole country?”

Then the other one came back with a second question before I had answered any of the previous three questions and asked, “Do you understand that when America imposes sanctions on your country, or on the president and his family, or on targeted officials, they use some of this information that is regularly made available in the public domain by the culprits themselves, where they think they are showing off and yet they are actually providing evidence that is used by intelligence agencies around the world?”

It is depressing because these are common questions that anyone around the president should have been asking, and that advisers to the president, which unfortunately includes the clown with this child, should have been telling the president, that this is not how things are done. The repercussions might not come today, they can come after six months.

They can come in March, when America renews its sanctions. A lot of people around the president have had their visas revoked by the United States of America, a lot of them. This is partly because of this kind of behaviour. I do not understand whether the president does not have people who studied international relations or who understand how Western and competent governments operate and behave.

They look at these kinds of things and then they act based on this kind of video. This is happening in a country where 2,500 women die every year giving birth because the biggest hospital has only one maternity theatre, in a country that has not had a radiotherapy cancer treatment machine for more than four years, not even a single one working in the public sector.

It is happening in a country where the whole capital city has fewer than 15 dialysis machines to service the public sector, in a country with 95 per cent unemployment, in a country that gets electricity for only four hours a day, in a country where roads are full of potholes, and then children of the political elite, sitting next to the president, go out and make such videos and post them on social media.

It is an insult not only to Zimbabweans, but also to countries that provide aid. That is why people like Donald Trump, although I criticised him for the way he did it, withdrew aid. You fly private jets and you post on social media like what this child has done, and then the next day you come out with a begging bowl asking for aid, asking for money to buy food for your starving people.

Many Zimbabweans go to bed on an empty stomach. There is abject poverty in Zimbabwe. Millions do not even know where their next meal is coming from. The president of the country, the intelligence services, and the people around the president, his advisers and his cabinet ministers, see this kind of stupidity and conspicuous consumption taking place and they keep quiet.

Do you now understand why nobody internationally is interested in taking seriously what President Mnangagwa says, what his government says, what they say about debt restructuring and those kinds of things?

They are so tone deaf. They lack emotional intelligence. They are arrogant, but they are arrogant in a foolish way. Mabharanzi!

The result of that arrogance and this conspicuous consumption is the punishment they get from countries like America. Wait and see what might happen in March.

They might be hit with more sanctions because of this behaviour. Then they will wonder where it is coming from. They will wonder why they have been targeted. They have been targeted because they are behaving in an idiotic way like this. That is why they have been targeted.

The behaviour of this child, and the fact that her parents, who are part of the corrupt and criminal political elite, allow her to do this, shows the level of unsophistication in this regime, the failure to understand how things are connected, the depth of ignorance, and the sheer lack of class that defines this government. That is what it shows. It shows the whole world that these are just a bunch of criminals who happen to hold political power and use guns to retain that power.

No sane person in government would see this and allow it to continue. No one. No one would do that. I have had the occasion to meet presidents of other countries, including African presidents, and they ask me these same questions. They say, “What is wrong with the old man? Why does he allow this kind of thing to keep happening?” And like all of you, I simply say I do not know. I speak about it every day. They obviously do not listen, and they clearly do not care how the rest of the world sees them.

[DAN KOE @thedankoe]

https://t.co/7l7Jef99QZ

[Anthony Panza @anthonydpd]

@WhaleEverything @NoLimitGains @grok DONE

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

I think this is superb advice. Worth a careful read:

Michael Milken – Lessons on Money, Family, and Success

(Forum for Family Asset Management, Milken Conference, Mexico City –
paraphrased notes)

Spend time with your kids — you’ll pay for it (for better or worse) either now or
later.

Think about how you measure meaning and success in your children and
grandchildren. Give them purpose.

For children raised in very successful households, it’s often hard to emulate
success — especially financial success.

Most successful people are too busy to see their kids and grandkids. That
absence shows up later in life.

The center of success is the ability to dream.

Real success is the freedom to live your life.

The financial media is obsessed with lists. Forbes today is mostly about
ranking wealth by dollars.

There are countless stories of wealthy people who never had a good day with
their kids.

You’re only as happy as your least happy child — think about that often.
He shared a story about a wealthy Chicago family whose fortune was divided into 1/13th shares after one heir demanded his part. That decision ended up dividing the entire family.

Be careful not to do something that provides financially but destroys the
family.

The most important thing to teach children is financial literacy.

The greatest failure among wealthy families is not providing financial literacy to their members.
Example: an extremely wealthy Latin American family where the
great-grandfather is still alive — his mindset is completely different from that of his great-grandchildren.

In Asia, inheritance traditionally went only to men — that has changed in
recent decades.

Recommended reading: Economic Mobility Program – Invest in America.

Example: Apollo bought the Venetian Hotel and gave all 7,000 employees
stock. They paid a dividend the first year through a recap — everyone saw it as a “Christmas bonus.” The next year, when there was no dividend,
employees were upset. No one had explained the difference between a
dividend and a bonus.

The biggest mistake over the last 50 years has been financial illiteracy — not understanding the business or the source of wealth. Families and employees both need to learn this.

Best example of a united family: an Austrian family that’s 11 generations old. They own a resort used only by the five branches of the family. Ownership
rotates every three years. To be invited when your branch isn’t in charge, you
must get along with the others.

No matter how much you build or earn, what truly matters in the long run is
your relationship with your kids and grandkids.

Define what success means to you — it’s what makes you happy.
Entrepreneurs don’t just build companies; they can build nations or religions.

One of the most successful entrepreneurs in history is Lee Kuan Yew.

It’s not about how many things you own.

If you’ve never been responsible for making payroll, your view of the world is very different.

Hug your kids and grandkids. Let everyone find their own path.

Children growing up around success feel enormous pressure. Remind them
how valuable they are.

Let kids make mistakes when the stakes are low — not high.

[Anthony Panza @anthonydpd]

@TshimoBoikhutso I love you

[EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm]

What you’re seeing is a sharp divergence between listed private credit proxies (a Blackstone BDC and Blue Owl’s stock) and the S&P 500. The index is levitating on mega cap tech momentum and easing policy hopes, but private credit is pricing a very different cycle with tighter cash flows at borrowers, rising loss expectations, and margin compression ahead.

Private credit’s core exposure is floating rate loans to middle market, sponsor backed companies. Higher short rates were a tailwind at first, yields reset up quickly while credit losses were still muted so BDC earnings looked great. That phase is ending. All in coupons above 10–12% have chewed through interest coverage; adjusted EBITDA add backs are getting harder to defend; and the easy levers (expense cuts, price hikes, sponsor support) are largely pulled. Markets are now discounting three things at once: more non accruals and restructurings, markdowns that follow rather than lead reality, and a turn in net interest income if base rates fall.

Losses are inherently lagged in this asset class. Portfolio values are marked quarterly with model inputs; managers can amend and extend to buy time; and covenant lite terms delay formal defaults. Share prices move ahead of those marks. The steep drop in the Blackstone secured lending vehicle isn’t proof of crisis by itself, but it is the market saying expected NAV and dividend paths are lower than recent prints imply.

Blue Owl’s selloff adds a second signal. As an alternative manager, it earns management fees on AUM and incentive fees on performance. If fundraising slows (wealth channels re-risk back into liquid bonds & equities) and performance fees fade as portfolios are written down or restructurings eat returns, forward earnings get clipped. In a falling rate scenario, spreads compress and loans refinance out of funds more quickly, fee bases shrink and the peak NII story reverses. Add higher operating leverage and equity beta, and the stock can slide even if current fee revenue still looks fine.

There are structural headwinds too. Competition in direct lending has pushed leverage up and spreads down for top sponsors, great for issuers, not for lenders heading into a softer macro. The 2025–2027 refi wall for sponsor backed companies looms; many loans were underwritten

[Jay Anderson @TheProjectUnity]

🚨This Exchange Between Tucker Carlson & Sam Altman Is INSANE!

This was so awkward and revealing, the OpenAI employee who turned whistleblower was 100% murdered. Sam Altman's body language and illogical responses tell us everything we need to know.

[Rob Wiblin @robertwiblin]

Christ this data is so grim:

"The troubling decline in conscientiousness. A critical life skill is fading out — and especially fast among young adults."

[Piers Morgan @piersmorgan]

Legitimate questions… why IS Israel allowed to refuse to admit it has a large nuclear arsenal, which it does?

[Mehdi Hasan @mehdirhasan]

"You know which country does have nukes? Israel...We should talk about Israel's nuclear weapons, which actually incentivize others in the region...to think about nuclear weapons of their own. I'd rather not have more nukes in the Middle East with anyone."

Me on Piers Morgan:

[Furkan Gözükara @FurkanGozukara]

His analogies are so perfect 😭