anuja_m

[Yash Shah @yshah889]

I’ve published Part 2 of my 2-part piece on why Indian equities have struggled since September 2024.

Part 1 explained why the market did not fall more.

Part 2 explains why it did not rise to new all time highs.

The key point: domestic buying was strong, but it had too much to absorb.

Part 2 looks at:
• new share supply from IPOs and promoter exits
• high valuations and slower earnings
• rupee weakness and weaker dollar returns
• tighter liquidity and higher borrowing costs
• cooling retail risk appetite
• less supportive central bank
• stronger AI and semiconductor opportunities in Korea and Taiwan

Domestic flows made the market more resilient, but they could not make fundamentals irrelevant.

[anuja_m @anuja__m]

@yshah889 Thought-provoking!

[Yash Shah @yshah889]

🧵 What the data says about where we are in the market and macro cycle (Oct 2025)

Let’s walk through the signals — from technical strength to liquidity, leverage, and macro health.

A data-driven look across the last 40-50 years of market behavior.

(1/15)