Alex Craft

FinTech, Medicine, Data

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

@DavidBCollum @edzitron @JackFarley96 I'm not sure AI should be analysed from the point of money. Do money matter when you own intellectual (and possibly robotic) capability of millions of high skilled humans? Why you need money for when you have magical genie that can do anything?

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

@DavidBCollum @edzitron @JackFarley96 AI is a bubble but it doesn't matter. The 99% of AI companies would go to zero. 1% would rule the world, replace 90% of human workforce. Probably even make money irrelevant.

[Rick Rule @RealRickRule]

Government, giving consumers the
boot"

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

@RealRickRule Now I got it - I could never before figure out why they are soo heavy

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

@TaviCosta Thank you Tavi. Can you please share your thoughts on timeline? Can call option with expiration 2-3y capture growth? Or 2-3y is too short and can miss it?

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

Stock Correlation is dynamic and may change during crisis. The first plot CocaCola vs PepsiCola - correlation 0.52, but during crisis (red dots) 0.9. Also, because of heavy tails its better to normalise y = Q_normal(F_empirical(log r)) before calc correlation #algotrading #risk

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

Stock Price Simulation #algotrading #risk

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

@KatusaResearch that's MEDIAN, I guess mean would be higher.

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

Improved Stochastic Volatility Model, better ACF match, tails still underestimated but acceptable #algotrading #options #stochasticvolatility

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

@enriqueabeyta CO2 is basically a way for one countries to tax other countries by restricting resource (energy) usage. China seems to be smart enough to not buy that nonsense :)

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

New Stochastic Volatility model, looks more realistic. Black simulated prices, blue real CocaCola #algotrading #risk

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

Predicting Stock Price With Stochastic Volatility Model
#algotrading #risk #options #fintech

https://t.co/0C7D1nUhLA

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

@nntaleb @WolframResearch I guess the difference is having more neurons, couple orders of magnitude more. 30y ago it wasn't possible, no fast chips like GPU.

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

@nickgiva1 Of course voting is less important, it's degrading to participate in this idiotic activity, like herd of sheep saying "baa" and thinking it has any effect on shepherd actions...

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

@nickgiva1 Isn't the short term and high frequency domain very competitive? Lots of algotrading companies with oceans of data and low latency channels. Hard to compete. 3-5 years horizon seems to be less competitive, no?

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

@nntaleb Thanks Nassim Nikolaevich

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

@PauloAr18169639 @TaviCosta EWZ too much everything, like banks etc, maybe buying specific stocks could be better, like Brazilian beef, crops etc.

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

@BambroughKevin Strangely $PSLV trades with -10% discount premium...

[Alex Craft @apetrushin]

@TaviCosta Thanks Tavi, interesting chart. Brazilian beef producer "Minerva S.A." $BEEF3 and crops "Terra Santa Agro" $TESA3 being flat even in slight decline for couple years - indeed could be undervalued.