Korey

Actuary sharing my data driven investment journey. Not financial advice. Current holds: $SPY $NVO $HIMS $LFMD $CELH $GRAB $SMCI

[Korey @apexactuary]

DCA Friday: Rotate

I opened a position in $HIMS this week by selling $DUOL for a 67% gain

[Korey @apexactuary]

$HIMS / $DUOL

I rotated half my DUOL to HIMS at these relative valuations

[Korey @apexactuary]

$NVO

4 green weeks in a row while the market sells off. That’s why I hold novo, just wish this hedge was higher than $40 at this point.

[Korey @apexactuary]

@steve2bacon I worry I did that with $DUOL here, but a wins a win

https://t.co/yUpqWK5wnz

[Korey @apexactuary]

I sold the rest of my $DUOL for a 67% gain since Feb. I still think it will run, but I’m satisfied with the trade.

Rotated to $SMCI

[Korey @apexactuary]

@TeleHInvesting Nice! I used it for chess to understand the business model. Very addicting.

[Korey @apexactuary]

$HIMS / $DUOL

I rotated half my DUOL to HIMS at these relative valuations

[Korey @apexactuary]

I sold the rest of my $DUOL for a 67% gain since Feb. I still think it will run, but I’m satisfied with the trade.

Rotated to $SMCI

[Korey @apexactuary]

@TeleHInvesting Thanks, now watch $DUOL mega rally

[Korey @apexactuary]

@RedPandaTrades Counterpoint is that A and C did not spend much time at the bottom

[Korey @apexactuary]

@RafaelBragana6 Incredible. You holding?

[Korey @apexactuary]

I sold the rest of my $DUOL for a 67% gain since Feb. I still think it will run, but I’m satisfied with the trade.

Rotated to $SMCI

[Korey @apexactuary]

$LFMD from -20% to +10% earnings reaction

Deeply undervalued despite the stagnant financials

[Finsee @Finsee_main]

$LFMD Q3 2026 earnings: LifeMD cuts its sales outlook again as drug costs mount

LifeMD, a provider of online medical care and pharmacy services, cut its marketing budget to narrow its losses, but its sales fell short of its own plan. Third-quarter revenue dropped 7% from a year ago to $44.6 million, while total subscribers slipped slightly from June to about 350,000. Chief executive Justin Schreiber cut the full-year outlook for a second straight quarter, removing the fourth-quarter sales jump the company had promised three months ago.

• Revenue: $𝟒𝟒.𝟔𝐌 (-6.5% from a year ago; missed $48–51M plan)
• Active subscribers: 𝟑𝟒𝟗,𝟕𝟒𝟒 (+12.5% from a year ago; down ~5,900 from Q2)
• Adjusted EBITDA: -$𝟎.𝟒𝐌 (improved $3.1M from Q2 after $9.5M ad cut)
• Full-year 2026 revenue outlook: 𝐂𝐮𝐭 $𝟏𝟗.𝟓𝐌 (now $188–191M (was $205.5–212.5M))

⚖️ 𝐕𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭: 🔴 Bearish

The story got worse because the year-end growth recovery that underpinned the full-year plan vanished, and stocking branded weight-loss drugs strained the balance sheet. Management cut its fourth-quarter revenue target by nearly a quarter and now expects wider fourth-quarter cash losses instead of a profit, while unpaid supplier bills more than doubled to $38 million and forced the company to replace its $30 million credit line with a $12.5 million loan. On the brighter side, cutting ad spending by a third did not cause a subscriber collapse, and direct deals with Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk and AT&T open large new customer channels.

The question now is whether corporate and drugmaker partnerships can restart sales growth before working-capital demands force the company to sell new shares. Either the AT&T and branded pharmacy channels bring in paying patients at low acquisition costs, or falling revenue per subscriber and $38 million in supplier bills drain the remaining cash buffer. Fourth-quarter cash flow and deferred revenue will settle it.

[Model: Gemini 4 Argon. Full article with charts - link in bio]

🐂 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞

🟢 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐂𝐮𝐭𝐬 𝐍𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐝 𝐋𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐖𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐒𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐀 𝐂𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐩𝐬𝐞
LifeMD spent much of the first half trying to outbid rivals for online advertisements, which drove up losses. This quarter management pulled back hard on paid ads, cutting selling and marketing expenses by 34% from the second quarter to $18.5 million. By our math, marketing dropped from 59.3% of sales in the second quarter to 41.5% in the third.

Chief executive Justin Schreiber noted that active subscribers stayed nearly steady "despite spending $9.5 million less on marketing". From May to September, the cost to acquire a new customer fell 32% while monthly media spending dropped 45%, Schreiber said. Because of that marketing reduction, loss before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and one-offs (adjusted EBITDA) narrowed by $3.1 million from last quarter to $0.4 million.

What to watch: fourth-quarter selling and marketing spend alongside adjusted EBITDA, which is planned at a loss of $2 million to $4 million. That wider planned loss will test whether the lower customer acquisition costs can hold while launching new partnerships.

🟢 𝐏𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐕𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐦𝐞 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐬 𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐃𝐫𝐮𝐠 𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐋𝐚𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐡
LifeMD wants to rely less on expensive online ad auctions by building an in-house pharmacy and partnering directly with drugmakers and big corporations. Shipment volume at LifeMD Pharmacy rose 58.3% from a year ago during the third quarter. The telehealth provider also signed deals with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly so its pharmacy can dispense cash-pay branded weight-loss drugs, including Wegovy and Zepbound, nationwide.

Beyond drugmakers, the US virtual care group signed an exclusive agreement with telecom carrier AT&T to offer healthcare and pharmacy services to 100 million wireless and fiber customers and 110,000 employees. While counting branded drugs handled by its own pharmacy as direct sales pushed cost of revenue up by 3.7 percentage points from a year ago and lowered gross margin to 81.5%, these channels give the platform vast new pools of patients.

What to watch: first-quarter 2027 revenue growth after the AT&T and drugmaker channels complete their initial rollout. A return to double-digit top-line growth would show that corporate and drugmaker partnerships can replace paid media.

🐻 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞

🔴🔴 𝐅𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐭𝐡-𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐓𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝐂𝐮𝐭 𝐁𝐲 𝐍𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐥𝐲 𝐀 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫
Three months ago, management lowered its full-year targets but promised a steep recovery at the end of the year, forecasting $60 million to $64 million of fourth-quarter revenue and $3 million to $6 million of positive adjusted EBITDA. Third-quarter sales of $44.6 million missed the $48 million to $51 million outlook, and the promised year-end jump vanished.

• Fourth-quarter revenue outlook: $46 million to $49 million, down 23% at the middle of the range from the prior $60 million to $64 million target
• Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA outlook: a loss of $4 million to $2 million, reversing the prior target of a $3 million to $6 million profit
• Full-year 2026 revenue outlook: cut for a second straight quarter to $188 million to $191 million, down from $220 million to $230 million in the first quarter

"We deliberately reduced marketing spend and prioritized longer patient commitments, and our partnerships took longer to ramp than we expected," chief executive Justin Schreiber said. Because the second-half profit inflection has now slipped three times in a row, forward targets carry little weight until quarterly sales stop shrinking.

What to watch: fourth-quarter revenue against the lowered $46 million to $49 million range. Landing below $46 million would mean the core subscriber base is still contracting despite the new AT&T and drugmaker deals.

🔴🔴 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐏𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐒𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐅𝐚𝐢𝐥 𝐓𝐨 𝐋𝐢𝐟𝐭 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐝 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡
Management has argued for two quarters that encouraging weight-management patients to buy multi-month packages instead of monthly plans puts the business in a stronger position. When customers pay upfront for multi-month care, deferred revenue — cash collected from patients for services not yet delivered — should rise on the balance sheet before turning into recognized sales.

The balance sheet shows the opposite happening for a second consecutive quarter. Active subscribers fell by about 5,900 from the second quarter to 349,744, after dropping by 9,300 the quarter before. Meanwhile, deferred revenue slipped another 3.3% from June to $10.4 million, down 27.3% from a year ago, and quarterly revenue per ending subscriber fell 16.9% from a year ago to $128 by our math.

This matters because falling prepaid balances alongside a shrinking customer count indicate that introductory price cuts and lower ad spending are reducing total cash billings rather than building a backlog of longer commitments.

What to watch: year-end deferred revenue and net new subscribers in the fourth-quarter report. Another simultaneous drop in both numbers would confirm that the patient base is eroding rather than shifting toward longer contracts.

🔴🔴 𝐁𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐃𝐫𝐮𝐠 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝐓𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐃𝐞𝐛𝐭
Dispensing expensive branded weight-loss drugs through LifeMD Pharmacy changes how much cash the business ties up in day-to-day operations. Previously, the company exited the second quarter with $25.1 million in cash, no debt, and an undrawn $30 million revolving credit line that required $40 million in combined cash and credit availability starting in September.

• Inventory: jumped 250% in three months, from $3.0 million in June to $10.3 million in September
• Receivables and payables: net receivables rose from $11.3 million to $13.2 million, while unpaid bills to suppliers more than doubled from $18.2 million to $37.7 million
• Balance sheet cushion: cash dropped to $21.9 million, net working capital fell to negative $12.4 million by our math, and stockholders' equity turned negative at -$0.6 million

After the quarter closed, finance chief Atul Kavthekar replaced the previous credit facility with a $12.5 million senior secured term loan from Avenue Capital "to fund the working capital our branded fulfillment arrangements may require". Taking on a smaller term loan while supplier bills sit at $37.7 million leaves a tight cash buffer.

What to watch: fourth-quarter operating cash flow and whether LifeMD sells new common shares under its at-the-market stock offering program as supplier payables come due.

🔴 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐝𝐢𝐝𝐧'𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐰𝐞𝐫
Several standing concerns from prior quarters received no quantitative update in the third-quarter earnings release because the full quarterly filing and conference call transcript are not yet included.

• Women's health numbers: management said the program improved and added leadership, but withheld actual revenue, subscriber counts and margins for a third straight quarter.
• Compounded pharmacy breadth: progress toward launching more than 30 compounded therapies by year-end was not mentioned; the fourth-quarter report is the due date.
• Insurance coverage and behavioral health: the release gave no update on the gap between 175 million reported covered lives and the 230 million previously targeted, and omitted behavioral health again.
• Fulfillment concentration and lawsuits: third-party pharmacy share awaits the quarterly filing, while securities class action and executive separation legal costs totaled $64,328 this quarter.

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💲 𝐎𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐊𝐏𝐈𝐬

𝐆𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐝𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐬 (𝟐𝟔𝐐𝟑): $𝟏𝟒.𝟕 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ⇗ accelerating
General and administrative costs rose 6.2% from a year ago and increased by $1.0 million from the second quarter. Finance chief Atul Kavthekar said the company added medical staff to support new partnerships, which outweighed savings in non-medical office roles. As a share of revenue, these overhead costs rose 3.9 percentage points from a year ago to 32.8%.

𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐟𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 (𝟐𝟔𝐐𝟑): -$𝟐.𝟒 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ⇄ reversing
Cash burn narrowed from -$8.6 million in the second quarter and -$4.9 million a year ago by our math, combining -$0.9 million of operating cash flow with $1.5 million of equipment and software spending. Operating cash outflow stayed small only because unpaid bills to suppliers rose by $19.6 million during the quarter, offsetting big jumps in inventory and receivables.

𝐃𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭 (𝟐𝟔𝐐𝟑): 𝟒𝟖.𝟐 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ⇗ accelerating
Weighted average diluted common shares rose 4.4% from a year ago and increased by about 394,000 shares from the second quarter. Although LifeMD did not sell stock through its at-the-market offering program during the first nine months of 2026, ongoing stock-based employee compensation of $1.7 million in the third quarter continued to expand the share count.

— • — • —

🔮 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞

𝐐𝟒 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞: $𝟒𝟔.𝟎–𝟒𝟗.𝟎 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ⇄ reversing
🠇 cut from $60.0–64.0 million
Cut. The new fourth-quarter plan lowers the middle of the range by $14.5 million from the target given three months ago. At the $47.5 million midpoint, sales would grow 6.4% from the third quarter and 1.4% from a year ago by our math, replacing the previously promised 32% fourth-quarter surge with modest sequential stabilization.

𝐐𝟒 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 𝐀𝐝𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐄𝐁𝐈𝐓𝐃𝐀: -$𝟒.𝟎 𝐭𝐨 -$𝟐.𝟎 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ⇘ decelerating
🠇 cut from $3.0–6.0 million
Cut. Management now expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of $3.0 million at the middle of the range, down $7.5 million from its prior fourth-quarter profit target and wider than the third quarter's $0.4 million loss. Launching new partnerships and marketing the enterprise healthcare offering will weigh on fourth-quarter profitability.

𝐅𝐘 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞: $𝟏𝟖𝟖.𝟎–𝟏𝟗𝟏.𝟎 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ⇘ decelerating
🠇 cut from $205.5–212.5 million
Cut. Full-year revenue moved down $19.5 million at the middle of the range, pointing to a 2.2% annual sales decline by our math. After holding the full-year target at $225 million in the first quarter, management has cut the midpoint twice in two quarters: first by $16.0 million, and now by $19.5 million.

𝐅𝐘 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 𝐀𝐝𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐄𝐁𝐈𝐓𝐃𝐀: -$𝟏𝟐.𝟔 𝐭𝐨 -$𝟏𝟎.𝟔 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ⇘ decelerating
🠇 cut from -$6.0 million to breakeven
Cut. The full-year cash profit outlook dropped by $8.6 million at the middle of the range to an expected loss of $11.6 million. Across four quarters of updates for 2026, the midpoint has moved from a $14.5 million profit in the first quarter down by $17.5 million in the second quarter and another $8.6 million today.

— • — • —

❓ 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬

𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐋𝐢𝐟𝐞𝐌𝐃 𝐩𝐚𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐢𝐭𝐬 $𝟑𝟕.𝟕 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐫 𝐛𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞?
Accounts payable more than doubled in three months to $37.7 million while cash fell to $21.9 million and the new loan provides only $12.5 million. Investors need to know the payment terms with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk and whether equity sales are planned.

𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐟 𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐬?
Management said 85% of new weight-management patients chose multi-month packages last quarter, yet deferred revenue fell again to $10.4 million and revenue per subscriber dropped 17% from a year ago. What is the current churn rate and average monthly price across the base?

𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐰𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐧'𝐬 𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐡?
Two quarters ago, management projected women's health would reach a $3 million to $5 million quarterly revenue run rate by the fourth quarter. With company-wide fourth-quarter revenue just cut by $14.5 million, how much revenue is women's health generating today?

𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐓&𝐓 𝐚𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭?
The exclusive relationship reaches 100 million AT&T customers and 110,000 employees, and fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA is planned to drop to a $2 million to $4 million loss. Does LifeMD pay upfront marketing or placement fees to AT&T, and when do enrollments begin?

[Korey @apexactuary]

@MaximizeBelief2 @himshouse $LFMD is licensed to accept insurance in all 50 states, that’s their edge. Counterpoint is customers prefer cash.

[Korey @apexactuary]

@TeleHInvesting On second thought, maybe the bottom is in

[Korey @apexactuary]

Make it stop

I may buy less small caps from now on $LFMD

[Korey @apexactuary]

@TeleHInvesting I expected them to be bad but not -20% bad. Even HIMS lost subscribers, but $LFMD just needs to survive for now and not let revenue decline any further. I’m not giving up yet, but it has been a long year holding this one.

[Korey @apexactuary]

@AngelParn Correct, which is better in a bull market

[Korey @apexactuary]

@RafaelBragana6 Thanks, and yea unfortunately

[Korey @apexactuary]

$HIMS compared to $TSLA

I opened a position today