Google $GOOGL invested $900M into SpaceX back in 2015 as part of a $1B funding round with Fidelity, securing ~7.5% ownership
SpaceX was valued at ~$10B-$12B when Google invested
SpaceX is now going public at a valuation of ~$1.75 Trillion
Google doesnt still own ~7% of due to dilution but ...
7.5% of the SpaceX IPO is worth
$131.25 Billion
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have soared in popularity over the past few months. But how do their prediction powers compare with the opinions of subject-matter experts?
https://t.co/XE3QLtPAJv
Online prediction markets have grown rapidly in popularity in recent years, particularly among crypto-native investors who view them as a technologically superior tool for gauging sentiment on major geopolitical and economic events. Because participants must commit real capital to their forecasts, proponents argue that prediction market probabilities reflect genuine conviction rather than casual opinion — a characteristic often described as “skin in the game”. Their continuous 24/7 operation is viewed as another advantage, providing a real-time measure of crowd sentiment rather than the static snapshots produced by traditional polls and surveys.
Despite these merits, prediction markets remain highly controversial. Critics — including many policymakers — argue that relatively thin liquidity can leave prices vulnerable to manipulation by a small number of large participants. There have also been several high-profile cases involving unusually large and profitable trades, prompting accusations of insider trading and market abuse. These concerns are increasingly translating into regulatory scrutiny. Spain last week banned access to both Polymarket and Kalshi as a “precautionary measure” while authorities assess whether the platforms violate national gambling laws, following Indonesia’s earlier decision to ban Polymarket outright. The two moves add to a growing list of jurisdictions restricting access to online prediction markets.
In the US, however, picture looks very different. President Trump publicly backed the industry last week, posting on Truth Social that it was “critically important” for the CFTC to maintain “exclusive authority” over prediction markets. His position reflects a broader battle over whether prediction markets should be treated as financial instruments or online gambling platforms. If regulated as derivatives under the CFTC, operators such as Polymarket and Kalshi can potentially scale nationally under a single federal framework. If instead they are classified as gambling products, regulation would largely shift to individual US states, many of which could impose outright bans or severe restrictions. Maintaining CFTC oversight is therefore viewed by the industry as critical to the long-term viability and growth of prediction markets in the US.