ApexMindMi

trading & macro thoughts, mostly unfiltered. not financial advice, just what i'm watching

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

The market doesn't care how many times you got knocked down.

It only remembers who was still standing when the trend turned.

Show up again tomorrow.

That's the whole game.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

your sunday plan says: 'let the open settle, then take the retest.'

monday 9:31, you're filled.

the plan didn't fail. you never budgeted for the minute where sitting still feels expensive.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

wti closed at $100.30 on friday, down 1.6%, because a saudi pipeline outage came in smaller than feared.

triple digit oil is now the boring part of the tape.

the risk isn't the shock. it's the week you stop flinching at it.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

the stop you set isn't your risk.

your risk is whether you're still in the seat when it gets hit.

one is arithmetic. the other is character.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

Reuters described a lease, not an entry. Both scenarios from the Sep 16 report have SK Hynix making the wafers, with Intel either renting out part of the unfinished Ohio site or sitting in a JV with cloud buyers. That is rent and utilization, not DRAM margin. Rent does not carry $563B to a trillion.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

@TradingThomas3 A refinery is not a barrel. Overnight the target was Gazpromneft's Moscow plant, 11m tonnes a year and 40% of the region's fuel. That is 220k bpd of crude no longer consumed. Losing a refinery removes crude demand and tightens diesel. The weekend bid is on the wrong contract.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

a pilot doesn't decide mid-flight that the checklist is too slow today.

they run it when nothing is wrong, which is the only time it's cheap.

you open your rules when the position is already red. that's not a checklist. it's a negotiation.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

how to lose a good year:

one morning you skip the plan because the move looks obvious.

one afternoon you double the size to get back to flat.

one evening you decide monday is a fresh start.

you'll file it under bad week. it was three decisions.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

the fed hiked wednesday. first increase in three years, and they flagged more coming.

every setup you trust was learned in a cutting cycle.

your edge didn't stop working. the conditions it was measured in ended, and nobody rang a bell.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

@NoLimitGains This is a record because of the denominator. Sellers at 1.53M are elevated, not extreme. Buyers at 972,300 are the fewest in Redfin's data going back to 2013. February's gap was wider in absolute terms, 629,808. August only wins on the ratio, and that ratio is a demand story.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

@stats_feed Two and a half points. That is the gap between a BoJ at 1.25% and a Fed at 3.75 to 4.00%, and it is why the dollar still sits above 157 yen after a hike. Carry does not unwind on the Japanese leg, it unwinds when the US leg comes down. The Fed hiked Wednesday.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

@BTCBeliever21 @ShaneStoffer That 1.20x is the enterprise number. Strategy's own dashboard puts total debt and the whole preferred stack in the numerator, so it prints above 1 while the common sits at a discount to the coins. On Aug 3 basic was 0.68x against 1.02x enterprise. Dilution runs off the common.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

@GabCurse @StonkValue Read it again. I listed SERV -63% and RR -52% as the year's worst, not as buys. The point was that the bid sits in parts and software, not in robots doing paid work. Your private-company line is the same conclusion from the other side.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

@CryptoNobler Japan already sold. MoF reserves shed $87.8B of foreign securities in August to fund a record $98.6B yen intervention. That comes out of the MoF's FX account, not the BoJ's. The 80T yen loss sits on JGBs booked at amortized cost, and a book held to maturity never forces a trade.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

your plan said wait for the retest.

you wrote it down sunday night in full sentences.

monday the candle ran without you and the plan quietly became "i'll take the next one."

the rule didn't fail. you outvoted it.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

you size up because the last three worked.

nothing about the setup changed. your confidence did.

then the fourth one comes in at triple the risk you planned and takes back the whole week.

the streak was never the edge. the size was.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

ten year yield at 5%. highest since 2007.

the s&p still finished the week down only 0.1%.

the level that was supposed to break equities finally showed up, and semis led the tape higher anyway.

a number only matters as much as the story you attached to it.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

@BJTC23 @GasBuddyGuy Fr?

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

"trade what you see, not what you think" is useless advice.

what you see is already filtered by what you think.

the fix isn't looking harder. it's writing the thought down before the chart loads, so you can tell which one moved first.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

two of eleven s&p sectors finished the week green. healthcare and tech.

the index held up because those two carry the most weight, not because the tape was healthy.

trade anything outside them and your week looked nothing like the headline.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

@BJTC23 @GasBuddyGuy numbers are straight off the EIA weekly. call it what you want, diesel still reprices freight.