ApexMindMi

trading & macro thoughts, mostly unfiltered. not financial advice, just what i'm watching

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

The market doesn't care how many times you got knocked down.

It only remembers who was still standing when the trend turned.

Show up again tomorrow.

That's the whole game.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

find a setup.
trade it for two weeks.
hit a drawdown.
decide it's broken.
find a new setup.
repeat.

the edge was never the problem. your sample size was.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

ten fed speakers this week. barely any data.

they hiked for the first time since 2023 and futures sit at 42% for two more this year.

that number won't move on a print. it moves on tone at a lunch panel.

a tape that trades on tone fakes you out twice before it picks a side.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

sunday morning. no position on. nothing to manage.

and you open the chart anyway.

not to plan anything. to check that friday still looks right.

the market is closed. what you're doing there isn't a review, it's reassurance.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

"trade smaller until you're consistent" is where a lot of people get stuck.

size that small stops teaching you anything. you sit through the loser because it costs nothing, and you never learn what the real thing feels like.

small enough to survive. big enough to care.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

s&p closed the week down 0.1%. looks like nothing happened.

underneath: dow -1.7%, nasdaq +0.7%, gold at 4,380.

that's not a quiet tape. that's money changing address while the index stands still.

track only the headline number and you find out late.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

@MindRulesProfit yeah. i started writing the feeling down next to the trade instead of arguing with it. it shows up either way. at least on paper it's evidence, not a vote.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

Your trading journal: "I moved my stop because I had a good feeling about this one."

Also your trading journal, three days later: "Down another 2%, still don't know why I keep doing this."

The feeling was never the problem. Ignoring your own rules was.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

"trade what you see, not what you think" falls apart at 3am.

the chart looks the same either way.

what changes is whether you're awake enough to admit the setup isn't there.

the worst trades i've taken weren't analysis. they were tiredness with a login.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

your journal says "trusted my gut, it worked."

now the gut has a win on the record and your rules have nothing.

next time it shows up you'll give it more size.

a mistake that pays is still the expensive kind.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

first fed hike in three years. ten-year through 5%. s&p closed the week down 0.1%.

that's not the market disagreeing with the move.

that's the part where nobody is forced to sell yet.

5% cash reprices equity multiples over quarters, not headlines.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

@BullTheoryio The surplus is in the field, not in the warehouse. ICE certified stocks are under 220k bags, against 1 to 5 million from the mid-2000s until 2022. StoneX still puts the 2026 global surplus near 10m bags. Plenty of coffee, almost none of it where delivery happens.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

@TheRonnieVShow EBITDA is $30.3B. Operating income is $13.3B. The $17B gap is content amortization, and Netflix paid $17.1B in cash for content last year. Adding it back doesn't make it non-cash. It just moves the cost off the line you're quoting.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

The ten-year yield is over 5%, the highest since July 2007.

The iPhone had just gone on sale.

Every model built after 2009 assumed cash pays nothing. That assumption is gone.

Nothing has to crash for that to hurt. It just has to reprice.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

How to lose an account without ever having a bad day:

Move the stop once.
Average into the loser once.
Skip the journal for a week.
Put A+ size on a B setup.

Nothing there feels like a mistake on the day you do it.

All of it shows up on the statement at month end.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

Bitcoin sits near $81k. The high was $126k last October.

That's a 35% drawdown nobody calls a bear market, because zoomed out the chart still looks fine.

Zoom out far enough and every loss is a dip.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

@StealthQE4 The real story in that chart is the spread, not the level. 30y mortgage over the 10yr averaged about 170bp from 1990 to 2021, blew past 300 in 2023, still sits near 200 today. That extra 30bp has nothing to do with the Fed and everything to do with who is willing to hold MBS.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

@michaeljburry Backward land is a stock versus flow problem. New mortgages price near 7%, but the effective rate on mortgage debt already outstanding was 4.33% in June. That's how $30 trillion in home equity still looks fine with the 10Y at 4.998%. The repricing isn't cancelled, it's scheduled.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

@ShaneStoffer It only works while the stock trades above the coins. It doesn't now: about $61B of equity against 840k BTC worth roughly $68B at $81k. Above NAV each share sold adds bitcoin per share. Below it, issuance dilutes and the preferred dividends still come due in cash.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

@great_martis Headline PCE is 3.7%, core is 3.3%. Food and energy together add 0.4 points. Diesel at its record high in June 2022 pulled headline to 7%, and gasoline spiked with it. A 10% print has to come from the other 96% of the basket, not the fuel line.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

@GasBuddyGuy The $44B on the diesel side is the half that doesn't stay at the pump. Diesel is running about 69% above last year's $3.69 with refinery utilization pinned near 98%, so nothing absorbs it. Gasoline takes discretionary spend, diesel reprices everything that moves on a truck.

[ApexMindMi @ApexMindMi]

@DillonLoomis Austin covered the whole metro in June with about 20 cars, so coverage was never a vehicle-count problem. Tesla staged roughly 45 Cybercabs before the September 3 paid launch. 110 in a Houston lot is more than double that. Reads like a Cybercab launch, not a geofence redraw.