This is what happens when conviction meets asymmetric risk/reward.
Before earnings, my highest conviction trade was $AAPL puts. $AMZN calls were another setup I strongly considered.
The biggest edge isn’t finding more trades. It’s trusting the high-quality setups you’ve already identified.
McDonald’s is NOT the next Nike, Lululemon, or PayPal.
$MCD has a moat that is incredibly difficult to replicate: global brand recognition, ~45,000 locations, enormous purchasing power, a highly franchised business model, prime real estate, and one of the most developed restaurant supply chains in the world.
Anyone can sell a burger.
They can’t recreate McDonald’s scale, distribution, franchise network, locations, and brand recognition.
That’s the moat. 🍟
10-year Treasury yields hit 5.04%, a 20-year high and 30-year yields hit 5.4%, a 24-year high. The rise is neither temporary nor close to over. It's the start of a long-overdue reset that'll return interest rates to levels incompatible with current asset prices or debt burdens.
A system doesn't need to catch the bottom.
It doesn't need to sell the top.
It doesn't need to capture the entire trend.
It needs to repeatedly capture enough of the middle to make the math work. Profitability doesn't require perfection. It requires a getting a repeatable piece of the move.
SAY GOODBYE TO LIQUIDITY.
The 10Y just broke 4.80% — a 19-month high.
Higher yields = more expensive capital, tighter liquidity and more pressure on equity valuations.
Now add:
• 7% mortgages
• Rising oil + inflation pressure
• $40T+ U.S. debt
• Massive Treasury issuance competing for capital
At the same time, we’re entering an AI/robotics investment cycle that could define the next decade.
Generational long-term tailwinds. Serious short-term macro headwinds.
The opportunity is massive, but this environment rewards selectivity. Follow where liquidity is flowing. Protect capital everywhere else.