Since 1 April 2025:
My portfolio: +228.08%
Nifty Smallcap 250: +23.12%
Nifty 50: +4.40%
( screenshot attached )
Sometimes I think about what actually helped me create significant alpha over the market over the past years
And honestly, I don't think it was one magical strategy.
It was a few very simple things, executed consistently. 🧵
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Everyone around me — friends, neighbours, relatives — is suddenly asking the same question: “how do I buy US stocks?”
Here’s the chart they haven’t seen.
This is India (CNX500) in DOLLAR terms, divided by the S&P 500.
One trend-line with 13 years of history.
It measures one thing: if you had a dollar, were you better off in India or America?
That ratio is sitting exactly where it sat in 2013 and in March 2020 — on a support line that has held for over a decade.
Every single time it touched here, India outperformed US markets for next 1.5-2 years.
Retail is queuing up for US exposure at the exact point where US equities have already done the heavy lifting — dollar strength + AI theme, while Indian markets have given no returns on index level in last 2 years.
My view for the next 1–2 years: the dollar-adjusted trade favours India.
When the barber asks for a ticker, the ticker is the exit.
Breakout Done in SME Index
Get ready for some MADDD ACTIONN in SME universe
I posted on 30th March and 3rd April that SME will become the most loved segment from the most hated segment within next 6-8 months.
From that date till now , this segment has delivered highest returns on index level since 30th March bottom ( 35% index returns - massively outperforming Nifty , Midcap and Smallcap index )
This was just a trailer - fasten your seat belts.
Smallcap 100 Index - 18th May : 17425 to 18200+ now
Told everyone on 30th March to go all in
Then told on 18th May to use this second opportunity if you missed 30th March
But we are in disbelief stage - most people will miss this rally
Microcap index already up by 25%+ since 30th March. We have seen only 25% of the rally till now.
Disclaimer: Although I am SEBI registered RA. But this post is not a financial advice or Buy/Sell recommendation. But my personal view on broader market.
This healthy pullback should be done soon.
A good spot today for anyone who missed the entry I flagged on 30th March.
I don’t post bullish calls daily — only when my system signals one.
Broke all of this down in 18 minutes:
— The full wheat-farmer analogy (and Mohan's mirror story) — How to find your portfolio's beta in 30 seconds — Why Nifty Dec 24000 PE specifically (3 reasons) — Exact sizing math for a ₹15L portfolio
Full video 👇
https://t.co/lzPmkMNoDU
You insure your car. Your phone. Your life.
But the ₹15 lakh portfolio that took you 10 years to build? Completely uninsured.
Most Indians don't know this is a choice.
A thread on how to insure your portfolio for ₹45K/year — and the 4 mistakes that destroy it 🧵
The question isn't "should I hedge?"
It's: → WHEN: elections, FOMC weeks, Nifty P/E > 22, earnings season → HOW MUCH: based on your portfolio's beta vs Nifty → WHICH STRIKE: round-1000 strike near spot, 12+ months out
Get these wrong, you're worse off than not hedging at all.
@grok analyse my entire timeline and tell me how I have timed the markets? Is it good or bad? Can someone generate significant alpha if they followed my market timing?
SME segment up by 26% in 37 days
I already shared on 3rd April in the below post that this segment will hugely outperform
Same is visible
Those who are thinking 2025 will repeat and after few months of rally , it will fizzle out. They will reconsider soon once the index makes fresh all time high in next 6-8 months.