.apsk32_

Engineer. Bitcoin, data viz., space, art

[.apsk32_ @apskls32]

I don't want to freak you out or anything, but this trendline was pulled down during the last cycle low. If that happened again this time, the low on the dial wouldn't actually be the true low. Let's hope the trend holds. If it does get pulled down again

[J Nicholas Gross @JNGross]

I gotta ask, does it worry you that we *may* still be on a 4 year cycle, and if the price trend keeps following this far below the expected black 4 year mean (green arrow), the natural conclusion would be that it keeps going in this parallel direction below it (red arrow) till we get to ... 10k? Looking at this chart, unless we are above the orange dot by May/June it kind of looks like we *are* following the cycle, just that its not going how we want it to...

[.apsk32_ @apskls32]

Bitcoin's pumping 😄
Didn't deploy all my cash 😔

Either Bitcoin turns around to pick up my bag or wifey's getting a big present.

[apsk32 @apsk32]

Don't wait

[apsk32 @apsk32]

Save in Bitcoin.
Stay steadfast. Stay consistent.
Do it for your family.

[apsk32 @apsk32]

I like to imagine that these families don't follow Bitcoin on social media. They don't know or care about our models and the cycles. They simply save a portion of each paycheck in Bitcoin, live normally, and outperform us without trying.

[apsk32 @apsk32]

If Bitcoin breaks this model, it will be to the upside.

[apsk32 @apsk32]

Some doubt that btc/gold will maintain its long-term trendline. Others believe gold will decline.

I think they're mistaken and the btc/usd models underestimate bitcoin's upside potential.

We're in the hard money era.

[apsk32 @apsk32]

Still true. I stayed comfortable. I touched grass.

[apsk32 @apsk32]

Bitcoin's last three cycles all peaked in November or December, spaced four years apart.

Previous cycle highs:
10 Nov 2021: $68,997
17 Dec 2017: $19,804
29 Nov 2013: $1,242

If that pattern continues, this cycle would peak in November or December of 2025.

Bitcoin has also followed a power curve for 15 years.

The power curve forms a nice support line that I consider the intrinsic value of the network.

My favorite way to measure current price relative to the support is the "years ahead" metric. This metric tells you how long it could be, in the worst case, before the support "forces" prices higher than they are today.

Many on CT have declared that this cycle is different. I heard the same when I posted this last summer. Back then, everyone was sure that the ETFs and MSTR would end the cycle pattern and invalidate the power curve trendline.

What ended up happening was that Bitcoin underperformed expectations over the following year and now price is back to the mean of the cycle pattern.

The mood has shifted over this last year. Now, people seem to believe we couldn't possibly move from $100,000 to $200,000+ by the end of the year. I still believe that we will.

If we zoom out though, this cycle doesn't matter. My coins have been in cold storage for years and they'll still be there ten years from now. You don't need to trade, you don't need leverage, you don't need to pick the next btc treasury company, and you don't need to learn about options.

You can build generational wealth by simply saving in bitcoin.

Follow @apsk32

[apsk32 @apsk32]

Largest corporate Bitcoin holders. Ordered by treasury size.

Metaplanet (3350.T 🇯🇵) passed COIN.
Remixpoint, Inc. (3825.T 🇯🇵) first showing.

🟢Outperforming Bitcoin
🔴Underperforming Bitcoin

[apsk32 @apsk32]

The fun part of the cycle starts in July

[apsk32 @apsk32]

"The cycle" is very much alive. Or rather, there's no evidence it's dead.

In 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin performed poorly in June but rebounded in July, heading toward cycle peaks. If the cycles repeat, Bitcoin would reach $200,000+ by Christmas.

[apsk32 @apsk32]

Followed through on this today. Mostly IBIT $85 12/19. If they hit, I'll use the proceeds to buy OTM puts on Bitcoin treasury companies at the end of December with Nov 2026 expirations.

[apsk32 @apsk32]

In just 25 seconds, I can teach you how to use Bitcoin's power curve time contours to track the cycles.

I will do so using interpretive dance.

You'll grok it or you get your money back, guaranteed.

[apsk32 @apsk32]

You've waited four years for these next four months.

[apsk32 @apsk32]

The 10-year base case.