Archana S. Awasthi

IT professional turned to full-time trader. Documenting my trading journey with focus on SIP. Please do your own due dilligence

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

$MU has got mojo back to the semis. Use your DD for any further action

[VenkatP @VenkatP1359]

$MU ER call summary

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

$BB the only thing I am watching in today's earnings is if QNX stays at or above the Rule of 40 despite guided seasonal softness in Q1

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

$MU extraordinary earnings print — $6.2B revenue beat, margin 390bps and EPS 23.8% both above guidance, 16 non-cancelable take-or-pay SCAs and supply tightness officially extended - "beyond 2027." Sustainability of 86% gross margin and HBM market share is to look out for.

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

$FCEL 1st named data centre win. This comes after a year of pivot with no contract. This is significant.

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

$MU $33.5B guided quarter is larger than any prior fiscal year's full-yr revenue. The question is whether MU sustains the supply-tightness language and guides Q4 to acceleration. At JPM conference in May, it was defined that supply tightness is structural and not demand driven

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

$CBRS OpenAI contract is👌, AWS partnership is 1st diversification signal. At 45x forward revenue with 86% customer concentration in UAE entities, gross margin reducing 1,000bps in one qtr, renting its own chips from G42 to fill hyperscaler demand — this is a tight rope & risky

[Black Panther Capital @BlackPantherCap]

Here a short explanation of the dip:

Kospi closed down 9.99% today. Worst single session since early March.

The index tripped a circuit breaker around 2:33 in the afternoon Seoul time, the fourth halt this year. Samsung and SK Hynix both fell over 12%. SK Hynix had briefly become Korea’s most valuable listed company a single session before this happened.

This didn’t start in Korea. $GOOG lost two of its most significant AI researchers in a matter of days, Noam Shazeer to OpenAI and Nobel laureate John Jumper to Anthropic, and the stock fell roughly 7%, its worst day in over a year. That dragged Nasdaq down with it Monday.

Korea’s chip-heavy index, up nearly 95% year to date before today, was sitting on some of the most overstretched leveraged long positioning in the market.

Foreign investors net sold 4.13 trillion won today. Institutions sold 4.55 trillion won. Retail actually bought, 8.58 trillion won net, which is its own tell about who’s left holding the unwind.

Ouch…

Then BofA dropped a real bomb into this exact moment. Three rate hikes now penciled in for September, October, and December, 75 basis points total, lifting the fed funds rate to 4.25-4.50%. That’s a full reversal from their own no-change call a week ago.

Here’s the actual link between the two:

Leverage doesn’t unwind slowly when it breaks, it unwinds exactly like today, fast and forced.

And a hawkish rate path is what makes leverage expensive enough to break in the first place.Korea just showed what the unwind looks like. BofA just raised the odds of it happening again somewhere else.

What now?

Right now I think cash-rich companies with low debt are the only safe harbors.

Personal I’m gonna ignore the "AI" story for a month until the dust settles.

If a company relies on cheap debt or future-dated AI promises to survive, they are currently in the crosshairs. That’s the game of betting on the future.

I’m gonna hold my position, maybe trim the fat - depending on how this plays out - or add more to my existing long-term positions and let the panic sell itself out.

-BP

Please note: this is not financial advice.

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

@ohiain (Avg(h-l),20) has to be above 25. That's my watchlist. Just act on setup and catalyst

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

@RealJGBanks No Cyber security? $CRWD?

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

USD/KOSPI is less an inverse trade now. Korea is benefiting from record supply shortfalls and accelerating AI demand, pushing memory prices higher, those price gains translate into outsized bottom-line. (GS) Overriding the traditional currency drag.

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

@thirdpointllc taking note of this research published Sunday😀

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

Semi Equipment have shown good RS last week, other than the chip makers (A synopsis to arrive soon for the sector). A snapshot of Semi equipment, how their current earnings have been to keep at the back of mind $KLAC $LRCX $ASML $AEHR $AMAT $TER $ENTG $ATOM

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

$JBL has consistently delivered the bull case: strong AI‑infrastructure growth, four straight beats, and margins holding at 5.8%. Concerns—AI cyclicality and margin peak risk. FY26 guidance raised. Management stays cautious when pressed on long‑term margins or FY27+ visibility.

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

I think so. Looked at the news. It's reported in bloomberg and certain china newsletters as well

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

Tailwind is end of Iran war. AI and semis are focus. 3 news to share: -$SNDK has revised price target ranging from 2250-3250.
-China eases on InP substrate exports which will ease the supply constraint for photonics stocks.
-$TSEM makes silicon photonics expansion deal with $IQV

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

@VenkatP1359 Oops. It is $iqe

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

@VenkatP1359 Yes, it doesn't trade here

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

@Scot1andT Haven't software now become the second fiddle again, given that AI and semis are back in action?

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

@ohiain Well the Iran war ending gives a stable view on inflation and interest rates, something a capital intensive operation is sensitive about. Hence all AI infra is in play, including the EPC

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

@mmonis What's your view on this now? It worked well yesterday and today also.

[Archana S. Awasthi @archanasaw]

@mmonis Photonics have a good catalyst. watching them. $TSEM and $LITE