Iris-T

Any moment might be our last. Everything is more beautiful because we're doomed.

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

lowkey i want their life rn

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

me when my monte carlo succesfully predict idr rate breach 18.000 level 4.5 month ago

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

Monte Carlo: Membuat simulasi forecast. Hasilnya menunjukkan meskipun rata-rata stabil (garis merah), pergerakannya sangat liar (Fat Tail). Ini membuktikan adanya risiko Overshooting ke angka 18.000.

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

love those 3 Claudes

[diana @dianalokada]

could be us

[Khoa Vu @KhoaVuUmn]

Always stop to check if the crack on public walk is normally distributed.

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

Riset simple ini nunjukin: shock yield Jepang beneran nular ke SBN & Rupiah. Bukan karena ekspor jelek, tapi yen carry trade unwind bikin modal kabur. Rata-rata kelihatan stabil, tapi tail risk gede—Rupiah bisa overshoot 17.5–18k lv psikologi. BI cuma punya ±3 hari buat redam.

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

gw nyoba deh riset sederhana pake variabel independe jgb 10y , dependenya SBN RI 10y, kontrolnya DXY,JPY/IDR, USD/IDR
gw pake 3 Metode VECM, Beyesian, MonteCarlo

[Falkenhaynz🍉 @keharyapatihan]

Naiknya yield obligasi Jepang adalah salah satu peristiwa penting yang bisa menyebabkan "kiamat finansial" di seluruh dunia

Di global market, selama ini banyak investor yang make gameplay "Yen Carry Trade" alias orang minjem duit di Jepang (Yen) buat beli aset-aset di negara lain karena bunganya hampir 0% (akibat Bank of Japan (BOJ) melakukan yield control dengan beli secara masif obligasi pemerintah Jepang/QE)

Kalo yield yang awalnya hampir 0% kemudian melonjak menjadi 3,87%, dampaknya luar biasa besar:

Karena banyak investor yang minjem di Jepang dengan 0% buat beli aset, kemudian tbtb melonjak jadi 3,87%, maka pada harus cepet2 jual aset buat lunasin utang di Jepang yang bunganya akan melonjak

Kemudian karena pada jual aset (misal saham, BTC, dsb), maka harga aset2 tsb bisa jatoh - dan praktis likuiditas global berkurang banyak

Saking pentingnya Jepang, pada waktu 2013 ketika terjadi "taper tantrum" (likuditas global kesedot) akibat The Fed mau menghentikan Quantitative Easing pasca Krisis Keuangan Global 2008, technically malah Jepang yang nopang likuditas global karena BOJ melakukan QQE (Quantitative and Qualitative Easing) yang mompa likuiditas global, salah satunya dengan carry trade

Apakah The Fed yang dulu ditopang BOJ sekarang bisa gantian nopang likuditas global? Mari kita lihat

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

Monte Carlo: Membuat simulasi forecast. Hasilnya menunjukkan meskipun rata-rata stabil (garis merah), pergerakannya sangat liar (Fat Tail). Ini membuktikan adanya risiko Overshooting ke angka 18.000.

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

so iam gonna land in the middle of Judea and I deadass just blinked and now I'm yelling Barabbas without knowing the context

[✨ @adtinf]

Your follower count is the year you have to be transported back to

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

What was God punished?
Sexual violence, humiliation, oppression, cruelty, and abuse of vulnerable people.

The lesson of Sodom and Gomorrah is about justice and compassion, not sexual orientation. the story is about ending a tyrannical system

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

"I lied, put your clothes back on, I'm actually going to explain Bauman's concept of liquid love, and why Tinder relationships dissolve faster than your will to stay in the chat after 'hey wyd.'"

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

@RWWReborn close enough welcome back v1 rocket

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

@RWWReborn @HecklerAndKoch https://t.co/SdtNsrPii5

[Jeff2146🇧🇪 @Jeff21461]

🇩🇪 Germany has announced that they will completely phase out the Flectarn camouflage pattern in favor of the Multitarn pattern currently used by German special forces. The changeover will begin in 2026 and last until 2028-2029.

https://t.co/psqD27C30T

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

@RWWReborn salah satu tugasnya nyelundupin beer ke garis depan

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

@The_RedsIndo boston red sox gwe habis kehilangan pemain bintang lagi buat subsidi liverpool

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

@BudiBukanIntel why spesifik sekali ke kurd ya? padahal lebih banyak demonstranya dripada kurdinya sendiri

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

@sugondese6666 woy gue bukan buyer

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

@f1speed_indo konteks

[Iris-T @ardhian_c]

@hikingshawty have you tried to kiss Mr. Darcy's bust?

[rumi ✮⋆˙ @torlaies]

the whole gang’s here