@robinhanson Wow.
Nature, the spokesjournal for expert opinion,
opposes prediction markets,
Which are the best known solution to the problem that
Expert opinion has a HORRID track record for prediction success
Who'd've thought?
@TheLukaVerse Defense is HALF the game. Wemby is the most impactful defender the game has ever seen.
It's like Magic with passing, or Curry with 3-pointers, AI with handles, or Jordan scoring. A whole new category just arrived, and it's named Wemby.
@VinnysCorner1 Really? No Manu, no Parker, no Klaw on your exclude list?
I mean ... this is a good start, but missing at least 2 people with Finals MVPs from Spurs, and the captain of the only non-US gold medal Basketball team.
@robinhanson Multiple questions concealed as one.
Why did they lose? (D)
Why do people dislike them...
(E) killing relatively defenseless folks
+
Bad timing on (C) -- they built the last big war.
@tardwife4life Marriage was historically an economic trade
Woman uses her womb to carry his genetic children.
Man provides and protects woman/children.
Man's children inherit.
Female cheating is a violation of this contract.
Circumstances have changed. Emotional responses haven't.
@wil_da_beast630 The test here is Humane Tuna, not people's aspirations for what they do. How many people buy careful expensive tuna in a can vs. the cheap thing on the shelf?
Unless you're talking about bans.
@wordgrammer I'm not sold on the SWE shift.
The cost of error * the difficulty of finding the error with hallucinating LLMs is significant. And that kind of brain work fizzles after about 4-5 hours a day. You're JUST no longer able to do much.