Random Thoughts 🇪🇪🇺🇦

Interested in security and the future of humanity...

[Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @Baltic_Takes]

To anyone who doubts that Moscow’s imperial dreams can be defeated, happy Restoration of Estonian Independence Day.

The events of 35 years ago are often just referred to in international discourse as the ‘Moscow coup attempt’ with all focus on what Russians were doing to each other.

But it was here in the Baltics that their empire was delivered its ultimate death knell by Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians.

All three countries were firmly on the path to restoring their independent statehood, despite the deadly violence inflicted by Soviet forces on Lithuanians in the January Events a year prior.

So a key aim of the hardliners attempting to seize power in Moscow was to crush Baltic re-independence movements.

Soviet forces were given orders to seize control in all three countries, but unarmed civilians took to the streets in response, erecting barricades.

Amidst the chaos, on 20 August 1991, the Estonians made their full formal declaration:

The Nazi-Soviet Pact is null and void, the Republic of Estonia has existed continuously in law since 1918, and all occupiers must get the fuck out. (I’m paraphrasing somewhat).

There was no time to celebrate, of course.

Heavily armed Soviet forces moved on the Tallinn TV Tower, shown in these pictures, in an attempt to cut off communications.

This would be the final battle between the Estonian people and the occupiers of the empire.

The Soviet attack was hampered by Estonian ingenuity and bravery.

For a start, Soviet communication channels were in chaos. Estonians had figured out which frequencies were being used to give order to troops and so kept tuning in and interrupting them.

And they arrived to find Estonian civilians surrounding the tower from the outside, while newly established but lightly armed members of the Estonian home guard had taken up positions inside.

Soviet forces eventually stormed their way in but found the lift wasn’t working. The Estonians had used a single matchbox to jam it open at the top.

The Soviet troops climbed up the fire escape instead. When they reached the top, the Estonians gave them an ultimatum. Go back down or the fire fighting system will be activated. That would rapidly deoxygenate the tower and kill them all.

It came down to the fact that the Estonians were prepared to give their lives for the freedom of their fellow countrymen and women while the Soviet troops ultimately believed in nothing.

The Soviet forces backed down and remained on the ground around the tower, listening into the news that the Moscow coup attempt had failed. The attacks on the Baltics were called off.

The Estonian forces in the TV Tower came down and even shook hands with the Soviet troops who were just as relieved it was all over. The momentum was now unstoppable toward the breakup of the empire.

Moscow had always refused to treat the Baltics as a special case, despite our occupation being the direct result of the nullified Nazi-Soviet Pact.

As a consequence, this meant that the freedom of the Baltics could help set a precedent for all imprisoned nations within the empire to make their own path out to freedom.

As these events show, the Baltics were never “Soviet states”, did not “declare independence in 1991” nor simply “emerge out of the collapse of the Soviet Union”.

We honour all those here who used their agency to stand up to the empire and prove that occupation can be defeated.

Fun fact. It’s believed that the fire fighting mechanism didn’t actually work. It was a Soviet system after all.

[Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en]

This is how Ukrainian Crimea was occupied by Russia in 2014.

Here is testimony from a direct participant - Igor Girkin (Strelkov), a Russian terrorist and war criminal - describing how Russian special forces ordered locals to vote for annexation at gunpoint.

[Ambassador Jonatan Vseviov @vseviov]

When the United States was attacked on 9/11, we answered the call — with boots on the ground, no caveats, on the front lines.

Estonia’s per-capita losses in Afghanistan were among the highest of all allies.

Belittling our soldiers’ sacrifices is insulting.

[Marko Mihkelson 🇪🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 @markomihkelson]

When Western realists promise stability through concessions, they are not advancing the cause of peace, they are gifting Moscow time to rearm and repeat — all but inviting a bigger war. https://t.co/fu2ar4chTp

[Sławomir Dębski @SlawomirDebski]

Sergei Lavrov now suggests that Russia’s signature on yet another agreement should be treated as a credible guarantee of restraint. That request would carry more weight if Russia had not systematically violated virtually every foundational legal commitment that structured European security after 1945 and after 1991.

Russia has violated the UN Charter (the prohibition on the use of force), the Paris Charter for a New Europe, the NATO–Russia Founding Act, all its bilateral treaties with Ukraine recognizing its borders, and the Budapest Memorandum, under which Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances. After this record, asking the international community to believe that “this time will be different” amounts to asking for an act of faith detached from evidence.

The problem is not the absence of treaties. The problem is Russia’s non-normative understanding of international law. For Moscow, international law is not a set of binding rules that apply equally to all. It is an instrument - something others are expected to obey, when it serves Russian interests. Russia, by contrast, considers itself exempt. Compliance occurs only under one condition: fear of reciprocity: the expectation that violations will be met with equal or greater consequences.

History reinforces this conclusion. In 1932, the Soviet Union signed non-aggression pacts with both Poland and Finland. In 1939, it invaded both. Those treaties did not fail because of legal ambiguity; they failed because Moscow never regarded them as morally or politically binding. They were tactical conveniences, discarded the moment they ceased to serve Soviet interests.

Nothing in Russia’s contemporary behavior suggests a departure from that tradition. Treaties, from Moscow’s perspective, are not safeguards of peace; they are pauses between acts of coercion, respected only when backed by credible deterrence.

The lesson is therefore clear: peace in Europe will not be secured by new Russian signatures on old paper. It will be secured only when Russia understands that violating agreements carries consequences it cannot afford. Only deterrence - not promises -has ever constrained Moscow’s behavior.

On Russia’s approach to international law, read @LauriMalksoo’s excellent book - and don’t let Lavrov fool anyone.👇

[Oksii ✚ 🇺🇦 @Oksii33]

What a disgusting world are we living in?

[Daractenus @Daractenus]

The people of Central and Eastern Europe were some of the most genuinely pro-American people you can find. The honest sympathy and admiration for the American people you could find here ran deep and spanned across generations.

One common point you will find across our region is that all our grandparents lived their entire lives hoping "the Americans would come" one day. During the darkest days of Russian-imposed communism, people went to lengths you wouldn't believe to get their hands on a pair of jeans, a cassette with American music, or anything that gave them that little piece of America and what it stood for.

We wanted to be like you, dress like you, speak like you, see your movies, listen to your music, build a country like yours, something plenty have paid with their freedom or their life for.

Most of the Central and Eastern Europeans you encounter today on Twitter grew up with those stories from their parent and grandparents. We were also old enough to remember the early 2000s when most of our countries finally joined NATO, after long and painful waiting queues, and finally became American allies.

I don't think I could do justice to the joy and sense of euphoria we all felt then. People got drunk out of joy and hugged each other, took to the streets with flags, danced, sang and smiled, happy and hopeful because the "Americans finally arrived".

Today, less than a year into Trump's presidency, not only did those decades worth of sympathy for a now unrecognizable US evaporated, but made room for feelings that will take generations to amend.

[Kateryna Lisunova @KaterynaLis]

‼️⚡️You were searching for some answers? - here you have it. From the US security council just now:

Ukraine has officially received from the American side a draft plan. We outline the fundamental principles that matter to our people. We agree to work on the plan's provisions in a way that would bring about a just end to the war.

In this context, allow me to make several critical points.
1-First, while Ukraine stands ready to engage in meaningful negotiations to end this war — including at the leaders’ level — our red lines are clear and unwavering. There will never be any recognition, formal or otherwise, of Ukrainian territory temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation as Russian. Our land is not for sale.

Ukraine will not accept any limits on its right to self-defense or on the size and capabilities of our Armed Forces. Nor will we tolerate any infringement on our sovereignty, including our sovereign right to choose the alliances we want to join. Any genuine peace process must respect a fundamental principle: nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, and nothing about Europe without Europe.

And let me be equally clear: we will not reward the genocidal intent that underpins Russian aggression by undermining our identity, including our language.

2- Second, support for Ukraine is indispensable. Peace requires strengthened security and sustained financial assistance to Ukraine. Reinforcing Ukraine's defense capabilities is not an escalation — it is the only path to compelling Russia to engage constructively in international peace efforts. In this regard, we express profound gratitude to all partners and allies. This support is an investment in the rules-based international order and global peace.

3- Third, the Kremlin regime will not stop unless it is stopped through unyielding and concerted pressure. There is only one realistic path to ending this war: Russia must be compelled to retreat — economically, politically, and militarily.

[Random Thoughts 🇪🇪🇺🇦 @argumentbot2000]

Very disappointing. US is negotiating with Ukraine and EU on behalf of Russia. The opening move of the Great Dealmaking is to unilaterally give Putin what he wants and then trying to convince Ukraine and EU to agree to this defeatist plan. Art of the Deal, indeed.

[Michael Kofman @KofmanMichael]

An update on the war following a recent trip. Ukrainian forces are holding, but the situation has worsened since July due to mounting offensive pressure. Here I cover some of the negative and positive trends, along with the salient dynamics at the front. Long thread. 1/

[Estonian MFA 🇪🇪 | 🌻 #StandWithUkraine @MFAestonia]

Today, Estonia commemorates the victims of the June Deportation.
84 years ago, Soviet authorities deported over 10,000 Estonians—including children and the elderly—to Siberia and prison camps. Most never returned. Such crimes must never happen again.
🧵

[Kristen Michal @KristenMichalPM]

Today, we celebrate the 141th birthday of our beautiful national flag. 🇪🇪

The first Estonian flag remains the world’s oldest national flag preserved in its original form.

For generations, the blue-black-white has united us, brought joy, and given hope. May it continue to do so.

[Lithuania MFA 🇱🇹 | #StandWithUkraine @LithuaniaMFA]

We know Kremlin's methods well.
1949 March 25, operation Priboi: occupant deported more than 90,000 people from Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to inhospitable areas of the Soviet Union. To stop resistance. But over 70% of the deportees were women and children under the age of 16.

[Estonian MFA 🇪🇪 | 🌻 #StandWithUkraine @MFAestonia]

On this day, we remember one of the darkest chapters in Estonian 🇪🇪 history.
In March 1949, the Soviet regime forcibly deported over 20,000 Estonians—mostly women, children, & the elderly - to Siberia.
Their crime? Simply existing as Estonians.🧵

[sven sakkov @sakkov]

OTD 76 years ago 90 thousand Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians, including toddlers, were deported to cold and misery of Siberia. Many did not return. This is what Russian “peace” means under Russian occupation https://t.co/NKzMunkmUp

[John Jackson @hissgoescobra]

Ukrainians speak Russian because they're victims of centuries of genocide. It is evidence of a crime, not affinity for the murderer. Please stop falling for Russian propaganda. I explain using a harsh but poignant analogy to America. Please listen, very short, to the point.

[Igor Kyivskyi @Ihor_from_Kyiv]

A little about Witkoff statements...

"These territories are Russian-speaking, and referendums were held there, where the majority of people voted to be under Russian rule" - Witkoff.

Okay, if Mr. Witkoff believes that native speakers can choose which country to belong to, does that mean English-speaking Americans should be part of England? Well, they are native English speakers, right?

Or okay, if he means ethnicity.

But then it's even more complicated... because the population of the United States is 98-99 percent immigrants or descendants of immigrants. For example, 31 million people said they were ethnically Irish (that's about 9% of the country's population). So now, by Witkoff's logic, part of the United States should belong to Ireland? I'm not even talking about other ethnic groups... including over 1 million Ukrainians.

I repeat, I write exclusively as if I thought like this person, and reasoned about the United States the way he reasoned about Ukraine and Ukrainians, and about its territories.
I am in no way questioning the independence and territorial integrity of the United States. And I want my American friends to take this solely as an example of parallels to the words of this man.

2. According to the Constitution of Ukraine, the land of Ukraine is the property of the entire people. Ukraine is a unitary state. A separate region cannot decide its own destiny without a general referendum.

Russia held a referendum that violated all international norms. On foreign soil and country... At gunpoint and in the presence of masked terrorists. Without a full and adequate consideration of the people's opinion. Part of the population of these regions was then on the territory controlled by Ukraine and could not take part in any voting. Another large part of the population of these regions were "refugees" and could not vote, since they fled from these regions in the first days of the war. Therefore, this is a false show... But even that part of the Ukrainians who remained on the territory occupied by Russia did not take part in it 100%. The maximum number of people who took part in the voting for one reason or another does not even make up 30-20% of the total population of these regions. And those who did, were forced to vote at gunpoint... which is already an international violation, and cannot be considered a legitimate vote showing the voice of all the people living there.

Let us also remind you about the real legitimate referendum in Ukraine, which has already been held and where the residents of Ukraine already expressed their opinion.
On December 1, 1991, a decisive event took place for the formation of Ukrainian statehood - an all-Ukrainian referendum to confirm the Act of Declaration of Independence of Ukraine.

More than 84% of voters took part in the referendum, more than 92% voted for independence.

🧵⬇️

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

The Kremlin is intensifying efforts to change the demographic makeup of occupied Ukraine in order to legitimize Putin's claim over occupied areas.

The Kremlin also continues Russifying Ukrainian children in occupied areas to further the destruction of Ukrainian national and cultural identity and to portray Russia as the humane governor of occupied Ukraine.

The Kremlin's continued efforts to forcibly deport and indoctrinate Ukrainian children — instead of working with Ukrainian authorities to return these children to Ukraine — underscores how committed the Kremlin remains to eradicating Ukrainian identity and strengthening its claim over occupied Ukraine.

[Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en]

Leniie Umerova, a Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar activist, recounted her nearly two-year imprisonment in Russia after being abducted by Russian security forces while attempting to visit her sick father in Crimea. She went through physical and psychological abuse, interrogations and solitary confinement.

Please listen to parts of her speech in the video.

Leniie highlighted ongoing Russian persecution in the occupied territories, where civilians face abduction, deportation and forced labour, with any defiance punished by imprisonment. She shared stories of women subjected to torture and denied medical care.
Around 14,000 Ukrainian civilians are currently behind held in Russian prisons.

"This is more than a war for territory. This is the battle between light and darkness. Between freedom and slavery. Between democracy and tyranny. And Ukraine is still fighting. And we are fighting for the win," Leniie told the European parliament.

[Timothy Snyder @TimothyDSnyder]

So: Russia flatly rejected one Trump envoy (Kellogg), made the next one (Witkoff) wait for eight hours, rejected the ceasefire, and instructed Trump that his job is to give Russia what it wants. That’s what Trump means by "respect" I guess.