atokcha73

[atokcha73 @arrowplus9]

@ComunerodeRumi @JMilei @KeikoFujimori Milei esta perdido, una lástima.

[atokcha73 @arrowplus9]

@KikesitoVH @RPPNoticias Deberian unir esas dos regiones y asunto terminado.

[atokcha73 @arrowplus9]

@freasilva @AlexTorresZa @Gestionpe Y ademas espia de una agencia de tres letras.

[atokcha73 @arrowplus9]

@Sinverguenzas_P No es secreto. Todos aportan a su partido y lo hacen legalmente. Si no quieren se salen del partido y se van a hacer otra cosa. Que problema te haces?

[atokcha73 @arrowplus9]

@fernand57314469 @larepublica_pe La República un diario cuyos dueños son unos imbéciles.

[atokcha73 @arrowplus9]

@martinfiera Lee bien kuy.

[atokcha73 @arrowplus9]

@FlorPabloMedina Flor, aprende a leer. No desinformes, quedas como ignorante o mala.

[atokcha73 @arrowplus9]

@danielcollazosb @RPPNoticias Vienen con chip especial.

[atokcha73 @arrowplus9]

@lchavezigualdad @elfjcgc Y el sombrero quizo dar un golpe de estado, y aun así lo apoyan algunos sonsos.

[Chay Bowes @BowesChay]

Pressure is building in Venezuela.

Unlike China, the USA cannot fully supply Venezuela with the goods it needs. America lacks the production capacity and the supply networks required to support the entire country.

The key issue is thay even with American sanctions in place, Venezuela under Maduro was still able to trade with China.

They exchanged oil for products, medicines, and other essential goods on a barter basis. After relations with China broke down, inflation exploded. It reached 649.5 percent by March 2026. The International Monetary Fund expects it to go above 682 percent by the end of the year.
Right now Venezuelas oil money is being sent to a special account controlled by the US Treasury.

Remember that the United States has also essentially seized Venezuelas gold reserves. These moves are speeding up the collapse of the national currency. The situation is spiraling out of control.

[atokcha73 @arrowplus9]

@xestefanyx @clemenciagap Ella?

[Matías Carrozzi @matias_carrozzi]

@AlertaNews24

[atokcha73 @arrowplus9]

https://t.co/r3oGhW95yY

[LíA @leahsacin]

¿Y el embajador buena gente con esposa peruana y baila marinera?

[El Comercio @elcomercio_peru]

Estados Unidos impone aranceles de hasta 50% a manufacturas de cobre peruano https://t.co/YPIbWmQIRi

[Michael McNair @michaeljmcnair]

Academic Economics Is a Degenerating Research Program
Far too many economists are comfortable making first order analysis and then issuing prescriptions and forecasts off of it. Single variable inference in a system that's inherently multi-causal. Their ex-post regressions routinely confuse not sufficient with doesn't matter. But if you can't explain how the entire system adjusts, those first order explanations are worthless. Any systems analyst would know that intuitively. But most economists aren't systems thinkers. Which is ironic, because they are studying a system.

The root of this goes back to Walras and Jevons. They began arbitrarily making up unrealistic assumptions about the world for the sole purpose of making their equilibrium math work. The profession followed to its demise. Most economists today aren't good enough mathematicians to recognize the folly in using equilibrium models to describe a complex adaptive system. The only time a complex adaptive system is ever in equilibrium is when it's dead.

Physicists use simplified models too, but they are extremely careful that their simplifications don't change the relationships so that the model no longer describes the real world. Does the map explain the territory? As Poincaré wrote to Walras, "If the arbitrary functions reappear in these consequences, the conclusions will be devoid of all interest". Most of academic economics today produces models that only describe a theoretical fantasy world. Because if they don't model it that way, they can't say anything at all.

Economists love making cause and effect statements but they only take the chain to the first order. They can't describe the feedback loops, so they just ignore them. Act like they don't exist. Or model them as exogenous variables. For them, all the interesting things happen outside the model. Systems are highly unintuitive, and if you can't describe how the system as a whole adjusts, then looking at first order effects alone will give you wrong predictions and descriptions. If you want to call yourself a science, you should be able to make predictions. The economists at the Fed are atrocious at predicting interest rates. We have the data.

They get away with it because they live in the ivory tower. They aren't forced to reckon with the uselessness of their models the way people in markets are brutally confronted with reality in the form of a daily P&L. A theory's scientific value depends on its capacity to generate testable, falsifiable predictions that prove useful in practice. Make a call, watch the tape, explain why it worked or didn't. That feedback forces you to confront unambiguous outcomes instead of arguing from priors. Markets give you a scoreboard. When you're forced to make predictions and live with the result, you quickly learn where your model is missing a channel. Macro arguments that aren't tied to falsifiable predictions drift into storytelling.

If their models truly captured how the economy works, investment firms would be aggressively bidding for economists' services. The fact that successful funds ignore academic economic research while employing their own analysts…people who think in terms of flows, sectoral balances, and system dynamics…tells you everything you need to know about the practical value of mainstream economic theory. Every Fortune 500 company used to employ a team of economists. They've almost all been fired because they added negative value. So economists have retreated into the last bastion where you don't have to be useful to keep your job…academia and think tanks.

Investment professionals can't afford the luxury of elegant but irrelevant models. They need frameworks that actually predict how markets and economies adjust to changing conditions, so they've naturally evolved toward real systems analysis like tracking cross border flows, understanding institutional constraints, following accounting identities through their full implications.

Accounting identities work like conservation laws in physics. Energy conservation doesn't tell you how a collision will unfold, but it absolutely constrains which outcomes are possible. Accounting identities reveal where adjustment mechanisms must be operating, even when you can't directly observe them. They're forcing functions for systems thinking, and they prevent you from making claims about one part of the system without accounting for how the whole system adjusts. Most academic economists don't subject their claims to that kind of discipline. They can make statements about one side of an identity without ever being forced to explain what has to adjust on the other side.

The economics profession has been rotted out by institutional capture. PhDs writing papers no one outside their silo reads or uses for any prediction with real money on the line. Just people writing back and forth and patting each other on the back. Their peer review system rewards mathematical sophistication rather than predictive accuracy. It's reminiscent of what Kuhn described about scientific paradigms in crisis, the practitioners become increasingly focused on solving puzzles within their framework rather than questioning whether the framework itself corresponds to reality. A degenerating research program that explains away its failures rather than adapting its methods.

The biggest travesty is that along the way they managed to fool themselves into thinking what they are doing benefits the world. Most of their analysis is relatively harmless because no one listens to it, let alone acts on it. The problem occurs when economists who have spent their entire career modeling a theoretical fantasy world, and have zero experience putting actual money behind their predictions, get put into positions where they are tasked with setting policy in the real world. That is a recipe for disaster, and we should have expected nothing less. It is insanity that we have FOMC members with zero real world experience in making predictions tasked with making the most important predictions in our economy. This skill isn't even considered a prerequisite for the job. But write a bunch of inconsequential papers whose only use is for people to cherry pick to justify preconceived positions...well, the job is yours.

To be clear, there are economists who produce highly useful analysis that I regularly use to trade markets. But their work looks nothing like what comes out of academia. Or the Fed.

[Jostein Hauge @haugejostein]

Ha-Joon Chang compares mainstream economics to Catholicism in the Middle Ages.

“Economics today resembles Catholic theology in medieval Europe: a rigid doctrine guarded by a modern priesthood who claim to possess the sole truth. Dissenters are shunned.”

[Jason Hickel @jasonhickel]

It's actually enraging how the World Bank can suddenly change its mind about industrial policy like "Oops, for the past 45 years we systematically prevented you from using the most obvious tool for sovereign development, keeping you stuck in poverty and dependency, lol".

[atokcha73 @arrowplus9]

@olutosintolu @TansuYegen SHANGHAI ZOO?

[atokcha73 @arrowplus9]

@Franco43581498 @BelaundeRafael Y tiene 40% de propiedad de peruanos. No trates de invisibilizar la inversión peruana.