The Income Show | Ep 4. ft. @jakob_btc
Our host @IIICapital sits down with Jakob Schillinger to discuss the Future of Money, Technology, Digital Credit, AI, @HermeticaFi, and Bitcoin.
@TNorth Interesting discussion of Digital Capital, Digital Equity, Digital Credit, and Digital Money with some excellent insights by @PunterJeff and @AdamBLiv.
NEW: Sen. Sullivan and Sen. Lummis lead letter to the Fed, FDIC and OCC, calling for revaluation of Basel’s risk weighting for Bitcoin and digital assets.
“A 1,250% risk weight bypasses those calibrated frameworks entirely, applying a blunt penalty …to a transparent, globally traded asset with deep derivatives markets, continuous liquidity, and cryptographic auditability.”
This is a strong signal from Washington that legislators are looking closely at this issue as work on market structure continues. The letter has 6 signatories and 3 are on the Banking Committee.
It’s also great to see BPI’s brief on this topic cited in the third footnote! 😉
We’ll keep you posted on further updates.
Welcome Back to The Hurdle Rate.
Episode 60: The Math of Amplification
In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down the latest corporate Bitcoin market activity and Strive's growing Bitcoin holdings, before turning to Strategy's Bitcoin sale and what the balance sheet math actually reveals about risk and permanent impairment. We dig into historical bear market scenarios, how to manage amplification ratios, and the product management and demand dynamics shaping the treasury company landscape. We close with a deeper look at what digital credit actually is and why it matters for the road ahead.
Here's the latest with
@TimKotzman, @ColeMacro, @PunterJeff, and @Werkman
00:00 - Welcome Back to The Hurdle Rate
02:26 - Analysis of Strategy's Debt Retirement
10:48 - Capital Structure and Market Perception
21:57 - Strive's Bitcoin Holdings Update
23:26 - SATA Daily Dividends Launch
31:40 - Strive Market Cap and Efficiency
33:14 - Ecosystem Cooperation and Voting
42:04 - New Federal Reserve Chair Outlook
Strive acquired an additional 2,500 $BTC for ~$185.2M at an average cost of ~$74,092 per bitcoin.
STRIVE SNAPSHOT
Bitcoin holdings: 19,000
QTD BTC Yield: 23.0%
YTD BTC Yield: 36.7%
Amplification ratio: 57.0%
Cash was increased to maintain 18-month dividend reserve.
$ASST $SATA
Strive expects to increase the size of both the $ASST and $SATA ATM programs by $2.1 billion each, reflecting a sustained increase in liquidity and demand for both securities.
We will provide a balance sheet update tomorrow pre-market.
I agree.
We spend a tremendous amount of time thinking about downside risk, stress testing scenarios, and building protections accordingly. In our view, $ASST is not over-amplified. If anything, we believe it remains under-amplified relative to the opportunity set Bitcoin presents.
It’s important to understand that risk management is a constraint, not the objective.
The goal for Strive’s common equity, $ASST, is to outperform Bitcoin and maximize long-term shareholder returns.
Importantly, we are not trying to optimize away every last basis point of risk. There is a meaningful difference between reducing the probability of failure from 10% to 1% and reducing it from 0.02% to 0.01%. The latter may technically cut risk in half, but from an expected value perspective it is immaterial if the tradeoff is materially lower upside.
This philosophy informs every major capital allocation decision we make. We start by protecting against outcomes that could permanently impair shareholder value. Once that threshold has been met, our focus shifts to maximizing expected value.
In our view, risk is not measured solely by the probability of loss. It is also measured by the opportunity cost of failing to fully participate in a highly asymmetric outcome.
That is why we intentionally have no debt, maintain substantial dividend reserves, and run amplification aggressively. We seek to eliminate risks that could permanently impair shareholder value so that we can maximize amplified participation in Bitcoin’s upside.
We believe Bitcoin’s return distribution will continue to be highly asymmetric to the upside. If there is a meaningful probability that Bitcoin compounds dramatically over the coming decades, the optimal capital structure is not the one that sacrifices substantial upside to marginally improve an already remote downside outcome. It is the one that preserves resilience while maximizing participation in that upside.
This is also why we are focused on acquiring as much Bitcoin as we can while it remains below $100,000. We believe Bitcoin is likely to be substantially higher over time and that periods where Bitcoin trades near its 200-week moving average are precisely when amplification should be run as aggressively as prudently possible.
We think in probabilities, expected values, and equity compounding. If you optimize around fixed income math, you should expect fixed income returns.
We built the company we personally wanted to own: an engine designed to maximize Bitcoin per share growth, outperform Bitcoin, and maximize shareholder value across a wide range of bullish Bitcoin outcomes.
Today's $SATA stats:
- Liquidity: $100M
- VWAP: $100.00
- Closing price: $100.00
The final record date for a SATA monthly dividend check is tomorrow.
Keep it 💯 and have a great evening.
The Income Show | Ep. 3 ft. @sthenc
Our host @IIICapital sits down with Stephen Cole to discuss Bitcoin powered businesses, @savewithcastle, the future of banking, and what the future holds for Bitcoin & Digital Credit.
3 days before the $SATA record date.
Available on most brokerages, including Robinhood, Webull, Fidelity, and Schwab.
Learn more at https://t.co/JjVqzkE062.
Strive just did something no public company has ever done.
$SATA is paying shareholders a 13% DAILY Bitcoin-backed dividend.
The first daily dividend in stock market history.
Full breakdown with $ASST’s Chief Risk Officer @PunterJeff 👇🏼
Timestamps:
00:00 SATA: The First U.S. Listed Security to Pay Daily Dividends
8:51 Strive Enters Top 10 Bitcoin Holder Ranks
10:39 Strive's Daily Dividends Beating $MSTR To It... What's the Catch?
11:21 Why Don't More Companies Pay Daily Dividends?
13:15 Structuring Daily Capital Asset Distributions
14:01 What is Digital Credit?
16:30 How is $SATA Able to Pay 13% Yield?
19:21 Strive is Re-Establishing Trust
21:08 Bitcoin Digital Credit Insurance Analogy
28:35 History of Strive
34:51 Why Traditional Income Investing Models Are Failing Retail Investors
37:51 The 2008 Financial Crisis Tore His Family Apart
46:35 Betting Everything on MSTR Options: Making 2000%
52:14 How Jeff Thinks About His Portfolio Now
Strive now holds 16,500 BTC
Balance sheet ATH ~ $1.27B
Now 7th largest publicly traded BTC balance.
Passed $RIOT ✅
Passed $COIN ✅
Largest non-IPO / transaction related BTC buy in company history.
Accelerate
Strive acquired an additional 1,109 $BTC for ~$85.4 million at an average cost of ~$76,988 per bitcoin.
STRIVE SNAPSHOT
Bitcoin holdings: 16,500
QTD BTC Yield: 11.0%
YTD BTC Yield: 23.4%
Amplification ratio: 45.2%
$ASST $SATA