Let me break down my two trades on $MU because this has been my BIGGEST win of the year yet!
This trade was the perfect alignment of macro + theme + individual RS.
The 1st trade was off the weekly breakout in late April, after noticing that the ENTIRE sector was in theme and running. Names like $STX, $WDC, and $SNDK were making massive weekly breakouts off of the short consolidation period.
My strength has always been pattern recognition and identifying high probability setups, not getting that picture perfect entry.
I added into my original position once and within ten trading days my contracts went from 19.15 -> 150.00 for over +680% in returns.
I ended up adding rolls to catch the push into $818, but gave some back on the sharp pullback.
But the most important part here is that I didn't take $MU off my watchlist.
A name that has RS in a strong sector will probably continue to be strong and I'd rather trade these names instead of looking for another setup.
The 2nd trade was taken at the EOW on a Friday and while $MU's daily does not look pretty, I utilized the sector to gauge the health of the trend.
$WDC, $SNDK and $STX all had more convincing inside bars. Every name trades a bit differently, so you have to analyze the broader sector too.
The most recent PA with the large daily flag shows you that with the increased volatility, price could undercut EMAs and won't be perfect.
But what does the recent action tell you?
-> quick reaction off an undercut of the daily 9EMA + slight 21EMA
-> reclaim of the daily 9EMA and closed above
-> weekly candle ends up being a doji near the highs
This trade sums up my ENTIRE process, I focus on:
- daily + weekly closes aligned with volume for confirmation
- macro + theme working together to support the technical story
- let runners run as momentum ramps up
These types of large moves take time to develop so it's all about having patience and actually let them set up without getting in preemptively.
$MU is my highest conviction long right now.
Let's compare it to some of these other memory/semi adjacent names:
$SNDK - Similar weekly consolidation where price really launched into a breakout after a bullish weekly print. The push higher was also on extremely healthy volume too, that's how you know it's legit.
$WDC - Does that weekly structure look familiar? The PA + breakout is almost a mirror.
$BE - I know this is technically energy, but look at the weekly breakout. This name actually has the closest type of PA compared to $MU where we get a weekly doji into an aggressive push to the upside.
I am expecting $MU to follow suit as it's clearly one of the leaders, if not THE leader, in memory. On top of all this, $DRAM continues to skip numbers and make new highs with $MU as 24% of the weighting.
IMO this isn't a question of if, but when $MU will start to make new highs.
great start to $QCOM with buyers responding at the prev ATH spot
in a sea of red, this name has exceptional RS today and that's something you need to pay attention to
if this overall market pullback is shallow, detachment off the daily 9EMA is possible for a huge run
you can tell we're due for either a pullback or at least some chop.
the majority of great moves have already been made and are far extended.
at this point of the trend, you should be managing runners/trades you are already in.
I personally don't think new entries up here offer that much asymmetric reward.
I've been at an airport lounge for the whole day π
It was a pretty slow day in the markets, but managed to get a small trim on my $CIFR position
We're closing the day with a full bodied bar over the 25.52 pivot. I mean, JUST LOOK AT THE WEEKLY!
This IMO has huge potential to be a massive runner.
All the HTFs align:
monthly base -> weekly base -> daily trend on EMAs
Let's get some follow through!π
$CSCO +5% on the day so far
this is one I'm very upset with missing
I actually entered on the initial break over the earnings candle but got stopped out
I think the slower moving names are the ones that frustrate me the most
Today's a travel day for me but I still took trims on $QBTS via conditional orders this morning.
This is why getting into a breakout trade early is nice:
- trims before the real move happens so risk is paid for
- capital flexibility
- time to layer cons for full position
I saw the RS on $QBTS with $IONQ leading the sector.
Instead of buying the breakout over 31.55, I'm already taking trims and sitting with nice cushion.
This means I'm okay if it takes a bit more time or if the breakout fails. My risk is paid for.
If the real move fails, I'm not married to the position ESPECIALLY since I've taken trims already.
Positioning through daily EMA taps also gives you more time to layer multi strikes: I entered the July's first and then the June cons.
Bonus: if the stock has really strong momentum, you can layer more cons at the breakout level and your risk on that fresh entry is paid for already.
I'm proud of this trade because I've been putting a heavier emphasis on quality over quantity.
One high conviction trade with multi layered cons is way better than five mid tier setups.
Short seller Andrew Left, founder of Citron Research, found guilty of securities fraud by a federal jury in Los Angeles.
Left was accused of using tweets about dozens of companies to illegally influence their share prices and profit from the moves. Prosecutors said he made ~$20M from such trades between 2018 and 2023.
Left took the rare step of testifying in his own defense. Trial lasted three weeks, jury deliberated two days.
Iβve had this battle in my mind almost every day!!
The way Iβve been thinking about it is: Iβm getting into the best names to my knowledge at the time, and I have to be content with the gains I make.
When itβs a raging bull market, itβs easy to trade looser and get greedy.
Lately I've caught myself beating myself up after the close because of all the names I "could've" been in.
You know the drill... "How did I miss that?" "Why wasn't I in this?" "I literally had this on my watchlist."
Then I look at my actual portfolio and realize I'm already sitting in some incredible names, and my job is simply to let my open positions marinate.
It's funny to me... because if I had infinite capital, I'd probably be in 100 stocks right now. But being forced to be selective has sharpened my eyes, improved my focus, and taught me that opportunity cost is just part of the game.
There are genuinely more setups right now than I can participate in.
What a ridiculous market we're currently alive to participate in...
...and that's a blessing, not a problem!
Reading this hit me hard today:
Time eventually exposes intentions no matter how decorated the mask. No performance can be maintained forever, and no false character can hide endlessly behind charm or words. People can pretend for a season, but consistency always reveals the truth beneath the surface. The way someone speaks may impress you at first, but their patterns will always speak louder over time.
True intentions are revealed in moments where there is nothing left to gain, manipulate, or control. Some people wear kindness as a disguise while carrying selfish motives underneath it all. Others build entire identities around appearing genuine without ever truly being authentic. But time has a way of pulling away every layer that was built on illusion.
Eventually, actions stop matching the image they worked so hard to protect. Truth does not need to be forced into the light. In the end, time always reveals who was real, who was pretending, and who they truly were all along.
$NBIS
With Leopold adding this name to his portfolio AND a possible Anthropic deal, we are setting up for a lot higher on this potential breakout.
2nd inside week off ER pivot with a close near the highs
PT: 250+
My focus list for the week of 6/1:
Unemployment Rate Friday
ER: $PANW, $AVGO, $CRWD, $DOCU, $LULU
$NBIS - weekly hammer continuation
$QBTS - daily consolidation + weekly hammer + US funding news
$CIFR - monthly pivot
$QCOM - 697 day monthly b/o
drop a π«Ά if you like this format, charts attached below!π
So many high velocity breakouts have happened in the past couple months where you just had to get in.
Instead of thinking the move is overextended, don't fight the trend and just ride it up.
"the bigger the base, the bigger the breakout"
$ARM, $DELL, and $ALAB are fantastic examples of high velocity moves when you zoom out to the monthly charts.
All three broke out and made fresh new highs in two months.
Another notable factor is the large buy volume that surged in, you need volume to confirm that the move up is sustainable.
$QCOM currently looks like it's working the same move.
The logic I run through my mind is always: "If a stock has been compressed under a certain level for so long, there's a very low chance it ONLY wants to run ~10%."
I would love to see a retest of the previous ATH 230 spot before moving higher.
With ER in early August, there is so much time for us to make an insane earnings runup.