DOLLAR AND FUEL SUBSIDY
The last few months have proved Nigeria’s economy is more of Dollar than Naira economy. The dollar unification and fuel subsidy removal have affected the lives of common man in a way one can never imagine.
PMS is the most consumed commodity in Nigeria and unfortunately its imported. 43 million liters daily means millions of dollar demand daily to cater for the energy demand.
The CBN on the other has no enough liquidity to supply the demand from oil importers alone let alone other dollar demanding transactions. This mandates the marketers to look elsewhere for the dollar which means at higher rate than the designated FOREX window (I&E) and that automatically increases the landing cost and impliedly the pump price.
Dollar and PMS remain interconnected so long local refineries can not meet our energy demand. PMS price will continue to fluctuate along the dollar for as long as we have mechanisms that will stabilize the dollar. The CBN Ag. Governor yesterday said the govt has plans to stabilize the dollar and also warn the FX speculators about something “Huge” coming their way. CBN has been issuing threats after threats from meffy days but to no avail. Aboki FX was even shut down all in an effort to eradicate speculation but still abortive.
Corruption remains the main reason Nigeria is in this state. The government gave license to only 6 importers and the daily FX requirement for PMS import is about $25m to $30m dollars. Why is it difficult for them to have sure access to the FX at the rate in the CBN designated window?
Dollar and fuel subsidy are claimed to be benefited by only few elites but its now obvious that the whole country is benefiting from the subsidies because everything in our economy depends on the 2.
The rate difference between the CBN designated window and parallel market will continue to widen as long as there is limited supply to match the demand. Someone somewhere is sleeping on his bed and making billions at the detriment of our economy because s(he) has access to the dollar at the designated window while the real importers are roaming about on the streets of black markets to buy dollar for import.
Economists can give as much theories as they can, pundits can give as much analysis as they can, media experts can influence as much as they can, we can justify as much as we can but the fact remains the same, Nigeria’s Economy defies logic and theory of economy due to systemic corruption.
Kemi Adeosun once” Nigeria needs local solutions for our local problems”. Our authorities should take a holistic look at our peculiar problems and provide peculiar solutions. We can write and speak English for as long as we want but the common man (aka voter) will only judge government based on the quality of his living. Buhari-led admin is a living witness.
Dollar price is directly proportional to price of PMS which is directly proportional to food inflation and cost of goods and services.
I wish Tinubu well. Leading Nigeria is not easy. Buhari once said “ He has come to terms with the fact that as a Nigerian leader you can only try your best because its a terrible country” So many tough decisions with so many consequences. Some consequences are manageable while some are not.
Salary increment remains the first and most important action to cool this menace. Everything has almost tripled in price while salary remains stagnant. Salaries play a vital role in stimulating the economy. Majority of goods and services are purchased by salary earners. Increase in salaries will have a multiplier effect on the economy.
God help PBAT
God bless Nigeria 🇳🇬
I’ve received a lot of criticism for teaching primary school kids in China, instead of Nigeria. Out of the blue, our HR office gave out these cards (2nd biggest retail app in China) to all teachers yesterday just to show appreciation. You can only imagine what our salaries are.
The 'Foolish Man' and his mega refinery complex
Some years ago, Aliko Dangote, Africa's richest man invited media leaders to a luncheon at then Protea Hotel in Ikeja to mark his 55th birthday.
Some of his guests sat around him at the centre table. They chatted freely. Discussions about our country, the state of the economy soon veered into discussing the absurdity of our country, being a major crude exporter, and also a major importer of refined petroleum products. Our colleague from a major business paper said the local conditions were unfavourable to any investor who wanted to build a refinery. He then made a remark that I believe he would live to regret: "Only a foolish man will build a refinery in Nigeria".
Aliko who had listened to all our business and political pontifications, interjected: "I am that foolish man". A pin drop silence enveloped the table as he dropped the unexpected news: "My company has just decided to build a refinery in the country. But we are doing it big". Those were his exact words, as the multi-dollar billionaire told us he was willing to spend close to $9 billion on the project.
The media big man became speechless. The rest of us caught the contagion of being flummoxed as well, as Aliko expatiated on the project. He said it will be a petrochemical complex. As the project was still on the drawing board, he did not tell us it will be the biggest refinery in the world, capable of processing 650,000 barrels of crude daily. All the hint he gave was that it will be 'big'. Our takeaway was that it will be big like Aliko's involvement in cement, sugar, pasta and other businesses.
He didn't say it will include a fertiliser plant and a power plant that can supply enough electricity to Nigeria's South West, excluding Lagos.
Initially billed for Ogun State, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery surprisingly shifted location to Lagos, just opposite the creek separating the two states. Governor Dapo Abiodun may want to probe his predecessor, Ibikunle Amosun, why he allowed the complex to move to neighbouring Lagos.
The gigantic project is now sitting in all majesty in the Lekki Free Trade Zone in Ibeju-Lekki, covering a land area of approximately 2,635 hectares, seven times the size of Victoria Island.
The complex is the world’s Largest Single-Train 650,000 barrels per day Petroleum Refinery with 900 KTPA Polypropylene Plant.
It comes with a 435 MW Power Plant, which will be able to meet the total power requirement of Ibadan DisCo of 860,316 MWh covering five States including Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Kwara and Ekiti.
The refinery, according to its fact sheet, can meet 100% of the Nigerian requirement of all refined products, including Gasoline,Diesel, Kerosene, and Aviation Jet.
It will also be able to produce surplus of each of these products for export.
Designed for 100% Nigerian Crude, the refinery has flexibility to process other crudes. No wonder it is located near the sea shore.
Today President Muhammadu Buhari commissioned the gigantic petrochemical complex.
Just as we rejoice with Aliko Dangote and the Dangote Group family, we need to give kudos to the Buhari administration for ensuring that the complex comes to fruition, by ensuring that it was not starved of needed foreign exchange and taking a stake in it.
For Aliko, all is well that ends well. The complex will bring to an end our country's many decades of shame, for being unable to refine its crude and having to depend on importation, wasting scarce forex.
The 'foolish man' of 11 years ago has demonstrated once again that he is a man of wisdom, a peerless shrewd investor who sees clearly the 'bigger picture', when his compatriots are bogged down by parochialism and immediate monetary gains.
Funny enough, those doing very well outside Nigeria always have good things to say about Nigeria but you see those cleaners and criminals that are struggling for where to even sleep abroad eh! 😂 💀