Crypto is paying a high price for years of altcoin scams and grifts. It can feel like a toxic industry where very little value is created.
It's easy to feel disillusioned and wish you were focusing on AI-related trading, businesses, or working at a startup in that sector. Many companies and investment firms have already begun the rotation out of Crypto. Don't let your apathy make you unproductive; it's your personal responsibility to continue learning about the world. If you feel the call of the wild, then go.
For the ones brave enough to stick around, not only will the risk-reward be as asymmetric as it's been in recent history, the concentration of upside in a handful of assets will make it EASIER to generate massive returns. There is less capital looking at Crypto exposure than ever before. This all changes with a rapid repricing in Bitcoin this year, which I believe is inevitable.
For a long time in Crypto, nothing felt buyable due to an excess of capital being forced to deploy in a sector with limited opportunity. We're in a new regime now.
We're reaching a similar level of apathy that I felt during 2019 and 2022. I almost quit Crypto to go back to TradFi. It's no surprise those were the years where I generated the bulk of my returns (sans Hyperliquid).
Outside of trading, if you're passionate about the space, companies that are still building during this period will be positioned to take advantage of the inevitable reacceleration of this industry. Working at top-tier companies in the space is more accessible than ever due to a shortage of people entering the field.
Don't undervalue your time.
Agree with @Defi_Maestro. $MNT is looking good here.
- Strategic integration between @Bybit_Official and @Mantle_Official: This recent move positions $MNT as Bybit's core utility token, similar to BNB for Binance. Helen (Bybit co-CEO) and Emily (Head of Bybit Spot) joining Mantle as Core Contributors sends a very clear signal that Mantle is a main focus for Bybit in the near to medium term.
- Favorable supply-demand dynamics: $MNT treasury owns $3.1B of MNT tokens, which represents roughly 50% of total supply. Bybit probably owns another significant chunk of the supply. On the supply side, Bybit's emphasis on the Mantle ecosystem implies limited near-term selling pressure from the team / treasury. In addition, Mantle DAO might vote to buyback/burn $MNT tokens with significant revenues. On the demand side, we will likely see pro traders and institutions acquiring $MNT to secure fee discounts and VIP tiers. Most tokens will be deposited directly into Bybit, further reducing tradable float.
- Valuation gap vs. peers: Based on trailing 12-month trading volumes for the top three exchanges: $MNT is at 0.8x market cap / gross trading fee multiple vs. $BNB at 7.9x vs. $OKB at 1.4x. There is significant re-rating potential if $MNT converges toward peer multiples
- Strong treasury backing: Mantle controls a $4.2B treasury, the largest among community-owned treasuries. Even excluding its 73% stake in $MNT, it still holds about $1.3 B in quality assets (mETH, BTC, ETH, and stablecoins), equal to 36% of $MNT’s current market cap.
Been tracking flows and correlations lately, since crypto’s starting to behave very differently under the recent macro stress.
Here’s what I’m seeing 👇
Since February, two clear trends have emerged amid rising macro uncertainty: sustained outflows from both $BTC and $ETH spot ETFs, and a shift in correlation dynamics that reflects a broader risk-off environment on crypto.
ETF flows tell the story: after strong net inflows in January, both BTC and ETH ETFs began experiencing consistent redemptions from mid-February onward.
That said, Bitcoin alone still has over $300M in net inflows, while Ethereum’s flows have remained decisively negative.
In the case of ETH, this is a clear sign institutional investors are de-risking in response to heightened macro pressure, from sticky inflation and hawkish Fed expectations to tariff-driven cost shocks and declining consumer sentiment.
However, what about BTC, whose net inflows are positive? Well, more telling than flows is correlation.
Bitcoin’s behavior has decisively shifted: its correlation with equities has climbed from around +50% to over +60%, while its historical hedge relationship with gold has broken down, flipping from +29% to -29%.
This decoupling from traditional safe-haven assets highlights how digital assets are being repriced, not as inflation hedges or uncorrelated stores of value, but as high-beta risk assets sensitive to broader market volatility.
Overall, crypto is no longer being viewed as shelter. It's being treated like tech; sold when uncertainty rises.
Unless macro conditions stabilize or monetary policy pivots, ETF inflows may remain muted and correlations elevated.
It's March 12, 2020.
The Bloomberg ticker flashes red. The Dow is down 10% in a single day. The office hums with tension. People walk briskly, speaking in hushed tones. I'm glued to my brokerage app, mentally sketching out my evacuation plan from NYC.
Amid the chaos, the head of GS SSG speaks calmly.
“We just saw the best buying opportunity in decades,” he says. “Now get back to work.”
Fast forward five years.
Despite a recent >10% correction, the Dow is trading 91% higher.
No one knows how deep or how long this downturn will last or when we will hit the bottom. But if you believe in the long-term viability of the economy, things just got 10% cheaper.
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
— Warren Buffett
Don't be a forced seller. This too shall pass.
Today marks the 1-month anniversary of Kaito's TGE. While many in the community first heard about @KaitoAI through the Yapper Leaderboard launched late last year, few know the story that began back in 2022—when they were still called MetaSearch. Caladan @caladanxyz was the first to write a check into Kaito and doubled down during their second round in 2023. After catching up with a few liquid funds recently, I still think Kaito is underappreciated for its long-term potential. As a Day 1 investor, I wanted to share the Kaito I know and the incredible team behind it.
I met @Punk9277 in July 2022 when he was still based in Seattle. Fresh off running a nine-figure book at Citadel, Yu started exploring crypto during his non-compete. He quickly spotted inefficiencies in the space, made some sharp trades, and picked up a @cryptopunks—which now lives on as his PFP. Used to leveraging Bloomberg and other data sources for formulating his trade ideas, Yu was frustrated by the lack of reliable data sources in crypto. That pain point sparked the idea for what would eventually become MetaSearch.
MetaSearch set out to solve a simple but critical problem: make crypto information searchable, structured, and actionable. Information in this space is scattered (e.g. Twitter, Telegram, Discord), in-platform search function is often sub-optimal, and existing search platform (i.e. Google) is not optimized for crypto. MetaSearch started aggregating and indexing that chaos into something usable. Over time, MetaSearch became one of the icons on the menu tab. In its current form, Kaito delivers real-time data that helps quantify sentiment and mindshare—fueling everything from investment decisions for funds to GTM strategies for projects. Since monetizing in Q3 2023, Kaito has made meaningful progress toward the revenue goals Yu laid out just two years ago in his fundraising deck. (Fun fact: his “TAM and Go-to-Market” slide is still one of the best I’ve seen.)
Now, onto Kaito’s token business. After countless coffees and lunch chats with Yu, I’ve gotten a glimpse into the grand vision he and his team are building. Crypto is an attention economy—and Kaito is positioning itself as both the gatekeeper and enabler of that attention. Their first retail product, the Yapper Leaderboard, immediately found product-market fit. I've seen higher quality content and more active crypto discussions on Twitter since it launched. I’ve also heard top KOLs confess to losing sleep over slipping out of the top 10. That’s the magic: the leaderboard creates a flywheel where great content is surfaced and rewarded, which drives even more quality participation. And let’s be honest—who doesn’t love tracking their reach and getting that little dopamine hit from a Yap?
The Yapper Leaderboard naturally evolved into other successful products, like Kaito Connect—which lets pre-TGE projects compete for a dedicated Community Leaderboard slot. It’s proven to be an effective launchpad, giving emerging projects visibility among the audiences they want to reach. Over time, Kaito Connect has become a kind of “coming-out party” for pre-TGE teams, helping them rally early support and build momentum.
In a world where attention is the most scarce and valuable resource, Kaito has built a loyal following across KOLs, projects, funds, and retail users. Its attention economy lays the foundation for many more "[redacted] launchpads" to come. I see Kaito Connect as just the beginning—helping projects prep for TGE. Down the line, I expect we’ll see an ecosystem of tools that support projects at every stage of their lifecycle.
I'm excited to learn more about Kaito's revenue growth, source of staking yield, network inflation/deflation as they publish the stats. But more than that, I’m confident in their ability to monetize effectively—as the ultimate facilitator of attention in crypto.
It’s been a privilege to watch Kaito grow from the very beginning. I’m incredibly bullish on its future as a category-defining player in InfoFi and the Crypto x AI space. @Punk9277, thanks for being my friend and my first "smart follower." Can't wait to see what's next!
https://t.co/PyY8yh3eK4