Stock Market Reaper

When selecting high-quality stocks in the Australian market, it is essential to consider various factors such as capital flows, market conditions, and technical

[Stock Market Reaper @arwww_9]

(ASX: BHP) | BHP GROUP
At BG Trading, we think BHP is sitting at a very important technical level right now, and we want it...but not just yet!
The stock has had an enormous run from around the $40 area to almost $68, but the chart is now showing clear signs that momentum has cooled.
✅ BHP has pulled back around **14% from the recent high near $68**.
✅ Price is now testing an important support zone around **$58 to $60**, an area that has acted as a major pivot before.
✅ RSI has fallen back toward **oversold territory**, currently sitting around the mid-30s.
✅ Momentum has been progressively weakening, which is something we have been watching for some time.
There are also some clear technical risks.
➡️ BHP has lost its short-term moving average and is now trading below the medium-term trend line.
➡️ If the current $58 to $59 support fails, our next major technical area sits around **$53**, very close to the rising **SMA250**.
➡️ Below that, we can see a larger structural support zone around **$48 to $49**.
As Lecio, our Chief Analyst at BG Trading, often says:
**“Sooner or later, every stock will test its SMA250.”**
The SMA250 is our preferred long-term moving average because it gives us a much clearer picture of where longer-term value and trend support may eventually come back into play.
BHP has traded well above its SMA250 for a considerable period. That does not mean it has to reach it tomorrow, but if the current support structure continues to weaken, a move toward that long-term average around the low-$50s becomes something we cannot ignore.
Fundamentally, though, BHP remains a very strong business.
✅ FY26 underlying EBITDA was around **US$33 billion**.
✅ Attributable profit was approximately **US$9.8 billion**.
✅ Copper production reached around **2 million tonnes**, with copper becoming an increasingly important contributor to earnings.
✅ Net debt remains manageable, giving BHP substantial balance-sheet flexibility.
And then there is the dividend.
✅ BHP declared a **US$0.99 final dividend per share**, approximately **A$1.38 per share**.
✅ Combined with the interim dividend, FY26 dividends reached **US$1.72 per share**.
For long-term investors, that dividend certainly adds another layer to the BHP story. But a good dividend does not automatically mean the share price cannot fall further.
At almost $68, we believed the risk-to-reward was becoming stretched.
Around **$58 to $60**, things start becoming more interesting.
If that level fails, our attention moves toward **$53 and the SMA250**, and potentially the larger support zone around **$48 to $49**.
BHP is a great company, but even great companies correct. Price still matters, and sooner or later the long-term moving average normally gets another visit.#ASX

[Stock Market Reaper @arwww_9]

ASX 200 futures -68 points (-0.8%) after the Fed hiked to 3.75% to 4.00%; 16 of 18 officials project another hike this year.
https://t.co/kSVkfBGTZG -13.30% on an earnings warning, and https://t.co/Vh822Evh48 -3.96% led US banks lower.
AUD/USD -0.62% to 0.7090; December gold trades 2.04% below its Wednesday settle.#ASX

[Stock Market Reaper @arwww_9]

ASX 200 futures +31 pts (+0.35%) after Tuesday's 0.88% fall to 8,672.5, with S&P 500 futures 0.03% below their ASX-close level.
https://t.co/nX0kztIPwA -23.43% after Enova withdrew its bank deal applications.
https://t.co/B1Lklz0xfw +13.55% on merger progress with Qorvo.
Brent settled +2.91% at US$108.75; the US 10-year closed at 4.996% before Thursday's 04:00 AEST Fed decision. #ASX

[Stock Market Reaper @arwww_9]

My investing rules:
📉 -10% → Hold
📉 -20% → Add 10%
📉 -30% → Add 30%
📈 +10%~20% → Hold
📈 +30% → Sell 10%
📈 +40% → Sell 20%
📈 +50% → Sell 30%
📈 +60% → Sell 40%
🚀 +100% → Exit Discipline > Emotion.
Risk control creates long-term returns.
#ASX

[Stock Market Reaper @arwww_9]

🔎 A Low Price Doesn’t Make a Penny Stock a Good Investment.
Penny stocks can look tempting because of their low share prices and the possibility of future growth. But a low price alone doesn’t tell you whether a business is worth investing in.
Before considering a penny stock, look beyond the price tag:
➡️ Revenue — Is the business actually generating income?
➡️ Profit — Is there a path towards sustainable profitability?
➡️ Cash Flow — Can the company support its operations?
➡️ Debt — How strong or stretched is the balance sheet?
➡️Growth — Is there a credible opportunity ahead?
A stock trading at a few cents isn’t automatically a bargain. The real question is whether the underlying business can justify the opportunity.
📖Don’t chase the lowest price. Research the business, understand the risks and evaluate the opportunity before investing.#ASX

[Stock Market Reaper @arwww_9]

All Candlestick Patterns
Piercing Pattern
Dark Cloud Cover
Rising and Falling Three Methods
Harami Cross
Tweezer Tops and Bottoms
Morning and Evening Doji Stars
Tasuki Gaps
Rising and Falling Windows #ASX