Soham

Uncovering sharp ideas in the market haystack. Not financial advice.

[Soham @ascharya108]

No surprises $PBF is soaring. Ukraine learned from Iran that attacking refineries can capture the attention of Western powers

$PBF is a unique way to play both wars with deescalation risk somewhat limited by the longer term story of resource nationalism (“we are critical infrastructure” - CEO in Q1 earnings). Looking over at $VLO, there could be room to run

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

While everyone is focused on crude oil...

Diesel is trading as if oil were ~$140 per barrel.

Following Ukraine's unprecedented attack on 30 Russian tankers in just 2 days, diesel crack spreads are surging.

- Diesel crack spread: ~$77
- Crude oil: ~$72

Diesel refining margins now exceed the price of crude itself.

People say oil is the lifeblood of the economy....

But the backbone of our economy runs on diesel:

- ~80% of US freight by weight
- ~80% of global trade moves by sea
- Most farming
- Most mining

In other words, we're going to feel the inflationary pressure of ~$140 diesel while the fake media keeps distracting everyone with $72 crude.

Brace for inflation.

[Soham @ascharya108]

Another pretty strong $FLOC print - hit upper end of EBITDA guidance with growth led by higher margin rental biz. Would’ve liked more from Nat Gas, but at least margins stabilised.

What I’m watching for on the call:
1. Daring to issue a FY guidance (probs would’ve been in the release, but a man can dream)
2. Progress on international expansion
3. Commentary on War catalysing energy resilience megatrend (+ early E&P demand signals)

Stock is up ~60% since I first posted last Oct. But I still like it as well-run, lower-vol energy exposure in a portfolio. Assuming FY26 double digit EBITDA growth, it's still trading at a meagre 7-8x - room for both valuation and thematic uplift

[Soham @ascharya108]

Well $PBF came out swinging on the Q1 call: "the world's going to be desperate for our finished products"

Hubris aside, it's hard to argue with the setup for US refiners right now - plentiful crude access, cheap nat gas, and global shortages. Names like $VLO are already trading near highs as the market rewards the sector

$PBF is discounted (20% off highs, sub-1x P/B) largely because they missed the first leg due to Martinez facility downtime. But if you think crack spreads stay wide, $PBF should mean revert as they bring full capacity online into a tight market

Near term it'll frustratingly trade as war beta. But that should eventually decouple as structurally elevated spreads persist

[Soham @ascharya108]

I find one of the least discussed bottlenecks to European rearmament is energetics / propellants i.e. who makes the explosives?

Plants shut decades ago and tight regulation gives tremendous power to incumbents. Chemring $CHG.L is one of very few answers, globally. Some pretty wild stats that flex the moat:

50% of revenue is sole-sourced (inc. w DoD)
80% of R&D is customer-funded
~75% of CAPEX is government-funded

Has traded sideways at 15-16x since last summer, cheaper than less differentiated comps. Coiled spring?

Just need to weather ST drag of European energy disruptions and spending delays

[Soham @ascharya108]

Couple thoughts on Trump’s Psychedelic EO

Major beneficiary is $CMPS - active BTD phase III trial (industry’s largest). Very likely to receive the National Priority Voucher as the FDA awarded it to them last Oct only for the WH to rescind it, likely on fears of upsetting his conservative base. That fear is now gone. Stock is rightfully ripping

Given explicit, repeat mentions of Ibogaine, it’s tempting to chase $ATAI which is advancing Ibogaine studies through DemeRX. Stock is getting this thematic-driven uplift, but the study is still early stage so this EO is less materially beneficial. Also I suspect the Ibogaine focus is less to do with genuine progress and more 1) to score points with Joe Rogan in an election year (Rogan bonded with an Ibogaine KOL on his pod) and 2) Ibogaine is more obscure and would have less negative publicity than writing say “MDMA” or “Shrooms” on a Republican Party EO.

[Soham @ascharya108]

Refineries could be an interesting "ceasefire overcorrection" dip buy. Even if war ends, crack spreads should stay wide as supply was already tight pre-war

I like $PBF given relative valuation vs peers (due to facility fire that has been resolved) and East Coast footprint that could serve European jet fuel shortages. Bonus is $PBF can uniquely process heavy sour Venezuelan-type crude (if that ever ramps..)

[Soham @ascharya108]

@FD_coop_NY Lazy river is a great analogy .. it's just what you seek when the rest of the park is all roller coasters

[Soham @ascharya108]

Markets rarely offer clean setups. A non-dilutive secondary dragging down a fundamentally sound name with strengthening secular tailwinds may just be one of them $FLOC

[Soham @ascharya108]

$ERII responding to some serious water escalations over the weekend. I still view this as a tail risk since Bahrain desalination facility remained operational (restraint?) and hydrological warfare is mutual catastrophe. But the precedent has been set and $ERII is the cleanest way to express it

[Seyed Abbas Araghchi @araghchi]

The U.S. committed a blatant and desperate crime by attacking a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island. Water supply in 30 villages has been impacted.

Attacking Iran's infrastructure is a dangerous move with grave consequences. The U.S. set this precedent, not Iran.

[Soham @ascharya108]

@_hustlerdoc Yessir

[Soham @ascharya108]

@V0lCrushed Getting surprisingly little coverage

[Soham @ascharya108]

One of most severe escalations Iran could make is attacking Gulf water infrastructure. $ERII is the pure play desalination leader trading an attractive price after a couple project delays sunk the stock. A creative way to hedge the tail risk of this conflict

[Soham @ascharya108]

@Mike10947310 @jack New catalyst for this phase of the AI trade?

$IGV climbs one layoff announcement at a time

Long the CEOs with a track record of restructurings as markets indiscriminately reward layoff numbers like its the new EPS

[Soham @ascharya108]

$FLOC earnings - Nat Gas biz has well and truly lifted (sorry, but puns >>). Continue to love this name supported by strong secular trends without the high beta

[Soham @ascharya108]

As data centres rush to natural gas and LNG exports ramp, who benefits?

Despite “drill baby drill”, E&Ps have favoured extracting more from existing assets (OpEx) than drilling new ones (CapEx). $FLOC should benefit meaningfully in this backdrop with market leading oilfield tech and operations in every major US basin.

Flowco has a 50% market share in Vapour Recovery Units which capture extra, high value gas for sale. Payback period is <6 months (!). Secondary benefit is methane abatement which fits a longer term (post-Trump) climate need that will be emphasised at COP30.

Their core business, High Pressure Gas Lifts, benefits from structural tailwinds as shale producers switch from legacy ESP lifts. There’s an onshoring angle here too as $FLOC is vertically integrated with US footprint, meanwhile 75% of ESP lifts come from China.

Stock has been cut in half since Jan IPO. If you believe in the nat gas turnaround story - just like the insiders buying up stock - this could be an attractive way to play it

We’re early, so I’ll be closely watching earnings next Wed for signs of recovery in VRUs

[Soham @ascharya108]

Largely agree with Goldman’s AI software winners/losers call. Particularly cybersecurity which is one of my fav themes for 2026.

For cyber (unlike SaaS productivity tools) trust is the moat, switching costs are real, and AI is a genuine tailwind.

$NET and $DDOG successfully used earnings to bang the drum on AI-as-tailwind, but gains lacked follow through. Perhaps similar commentary from $PANW tonight and $CRWD in a few weeks might flip narrative on cyber?

Also looking into $S and $ZS as more leveraged plays on AI fear reversion but haven't finished DD

[Sergey @SergeyCYW]

Goldman Sachs unveiled a "Long/Short AI-Resilient Software Basket"

Long: $MSFT, $PANW, $NET sit at the infrastructure layer. $MSFT controls hyperscale compute and AI distribution. $PANW monetizes rising security demand. $NET captures edge inference and data traffic growth.

Short: $CRM, $DOCU, $MNDY rely on seat-based workflows. AI agents may reduce headcount, automate contracts, and replace human coordination.

Core idea: AI strengthens the rails. It pressures the seats.

Here’s the breakdown 👇

[Soham @ascharya108]

I don't suspect the move was driven by directed energy as management just spoke about CROSSBOW product achievements from last year. Perhaps understandably, markets are yet to price it in as it's a tiny portion of the business currently, which leaves it as an untapped catalyst for directed energy bulls

[Soham @ascharya108]

Impressive for $IPGP to hold a 30% post-earnings gain on a red tape. Even more interesting: move looks driven by core business inflection as nothing materially new was said about directed energy.

As directed energy enters mainstream, the setup is there for a further rerate as narrative on IPGP transitions from ISM beta → next gen defence player

[Soham @ascharya108]

I still like $IPGP as a sleeper counter-UAS play with its cost-efficient CROSSBOW laser system. CEO just revealed: 1) Active talks with multiple customers, 2) Dedicated production/customer hub in Huntsville, and 3) Focus on apps like airport protection (see below) - a niche distinct from other high energy, military-focused laser players

Highlighting this in prepared remarks at earnings + setting up a defence facility in a new location shows $IPGP isn't treating CROSSBOW as a side project... I suspect once they land a contract, markets may start pricing them like a defence player

[Soham @ascharya108]

@beach_trades will do

[Soham @ascharya108]

@beach_trades Nice to hear from you Beach! Last time we collab'd, our $LPTH was at $2.5 :)