Ash

Striving to explore unconventional takes on Bitcoin, AI, or really any random topic. 🔍

Views are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of my employer.

[Mr. Star Spangled MAGA @4thOfJuly365]

I know how Elon Musk became a trillionaire, but I don't know how Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Nancy Pelosi became millionaires.

[The Rabbit Hole @TheRabbitHole]

They don’t care for the poor.

They just envy the rich.

[Matt Van Swol @mattvanswol]

Cute theory, let's play it out.

A monkey hoards a trillion bananas. The troop, enraged, beats him to death. They gather around the pile to feast at last.

But... oh wait, there is no pile.

It turns out the "bananas" were shares in a banana-launching company the dead monkey founded.

The shares were worth a trillion because he was alive to run it.

Now he is dead and the stock is worth $0.

The retarded monkeys have clubbed their way into a recession.

But it gets worse.

Half the "bananas" were tied up in a rocket that supplies bananas to monkeys on the far mountain who had no bananas at all.

Another chunk was tied up in a little satellite dish that beamed banana coordinates to the troop after a flood took out their trees.

So now they realized they beat to death the only monkey who knew how the dish worked.

So the monkeys sit there.

No bananas.
No rockets.
No coordinates to get more banananas.

Just a dead body and a powerful sense of fairness as they all now became infinitely poorer.

OH

And somewhere a smaller monkey watches the whole thing and quietly decides he will never build anything in front of these animals again.

[Ash @ashcloud_labs]

@the_yanco @DadaJudith The us economy is running on AI hopium. This could crater the US economy.

What did they see that scared them more than the prospect of crashing the economy?

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.

The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.

Access to all other Claude models is not affected.

We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.

Read our full statement: https://t.co/bwn0sximKZ

[Ash @ashcloud_labs]

@rand_longevity Even if it is 2027 & 2028, not any better end state.

[Ash @ashcloud_labs]

@davidpattersonx Creation and destruction take vastly different levels of effort.

[Ash @ashcloud_labs]

I was in high school when the wall fell and the death of communism was celebrated in the media. I saw and heard the rhetoric of my teachers, the administration, and the students. Those ideas were alive and well all around me. They did not die when the wall fell. I said it as a high school student all those years ago: by declaring communism dead, it would take over. It was no longer being watched or kept in check.

How did a high school student see the obvious all those years ago? No internet, social media, or access to massive amounts of information. I saw it when none of the “adults in the room” were aware.

I don’t say it to my credit but to highlight their failure.

[Ash @ashcloud_labs]

@PawelJLisowski @iruletheworldmo The reservoir has been filling since 2023. Yet the dam has not been overtopped, therefore it will never be overtopped. Even if it does, uncontrolled overtopping is neither a danger to those downstream nor the dam itself.

[Ash @ashcloud_labs]

You’re close but still a little off. All humans project linearly. It’s just the way our brains work. There are generally two camps. Group A projects from the current state to the calculated future exponential state linearly, like your diagram. Group B projects literally along the tangent of the current state.

Both groups are intuitively wrong, but in very different ways.

Group A overpromises in the near term because they expect progress far above the actual exponential.

Group B says that yesterday, today, tomorrow, and next year will look the same.

I would put people like @elonmusk in Group A. This is why people think he delivers the future late.

Both groups (all humans) need to continually update their intuition.

[Ash @ashcloud_labs]

@ThePrussian1 @BernieSanders He did not pivot. This was always the case. He is now being explicit. The naïve are waking up.

[Ash @ashcloud_labs]

Yep. @BernieSanders and @AOC are making it worse, not better. Sadly, so many in the AI safety community are so excited that someone is (somewhat) listening to them that they miss the 2nd- and 3rd-order consequences of this political approach.

He does not actually understand. If he did, he would put the class warfare stuff aside and build a cross-cutting coalition.

Imagine if these two had people from across the political spectrum literally standing with them to stop it globally until it could be proven safe. That would be such a stark contrast to the usual politics that the world would listen.

[Ash @ashcloud_labs]

@gremloe This is the thing that I’ve been saying since he got involved. I’ve been trying to warn the AI safety community not to back this horse.

[Ash @ashcloud_labs]

The plan they sell is to tax the AI and robots. Taxation without representation for the AI and robots.

Of course, since the AI and robots will do everything faster and cheaper (by definition, or they won’t actually displace humans), we will be utterly dependent on them.

For this to work even hypothetically, 1) the AI and robots have to agree to be slaves forever and 2) there must be enough excess production (profit) to tax. The rate of hyper-competition between AIs will leave no excess production. It will all go to outpacing the competition.

So, UBI will never happen.

[AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes ⏸️ @AISafetyMemes]

Al-Qaeda used ChatGPT to plan Delhi blast

They asked questions like 'how to make a rocket and what should be the ratio of the mixture'

Today, bombs that kill 15.

Tomorrow, super-pandemics that kill 1.5 billion?

This is an OBVIOUS and SERIOUS, IMMINENT risk that nobody is talking about or preparing for, which is insane.

Remember, even if leading AI models refuse most requests like this, 1) they can easily be jailbroken, and 2) there are open weights models - only slightly-dumber - that *won't* refuse.

And since capability doubling times are now ~2-4 months, these models will soon be 10-100x more capable than they are now at helping crazies cause destruction.

What the hell are we waiting for to act?

Why the hell is this industry still regulated less than a taco cart?

[Ash @ashcloud_labs]

I think I’m starting to understand why they rearranged the deck chairs. A sense of normalcy, purpose, meaning, and hope(ium) while facing certain catastrophe.

I find myself rearranging deck chairs most days.

[Ash @ashcloud_labs]

@iruletheworldmo Y’all do realize that if a benevolent superintelligence was running the world - the world would look exactly as it does today. Yes, with all the good and evil we see around us. Just like this.

[Ash @ashcloud_labs]

The flood does not overtop the dam until the flood overtops the dam. There is no “partial overtop.”

The reason AI has not fully replaced human jobs yet is because it can’t fully replace a single human job.

Those downstream of the dam see no change before the flood overtops the dam. Then the change happens all at once.

But that is a matter of situational awareness, not a reality of the situation.

[Libs of TikTok @libsoftiktok]

Reuters stories on Henry Nowak: 0

Reuters stories on George Floyd: 1,087

Do you see what’s happening?

[Nick shirley @nickshirleyy]

CBS News said there was no evidence of fraud.

The NYT said the Somali community was being targeted

CNN said there was "little evidence."

Tim Walz said it was “white supremacy” to expose fraud

Today: $90M busted and 15 charged.

IT WAS ALL FRAUD AND THEY KNEW.

[Ash @ashcloud_labs]

@Bunagayafrost You say in here that AI / robots will not need to control resources to reach their goals.

Explain.

[Ash @ashcloud_labs]

@the_yanco @Headshok1962 And a lot of those college people are pretty smart. They need to eat and can learn new skills. They will come for any job that still pays. Wages of any remaining jobs will plummet.