everyone keeps saying prediction markets reveal the truth
they don't
they reveal a price
those are not the same thing
a 1% contract sounds like a 1% chance
historical data says those contracts actually resolved closer to 0.43%
that's not noise
it's a measurable pricing bias
the interesting part isn't that prediction markets are wrong
it's that they're wrong in ways you can model
the future won't belong to the people reading market odds
it'll belong to the people calibrating them
because once everyone has access to the same price
the edge moves to knowing what that price actually means
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