AskLivermore (Personal)

Singapore's #1 trader now on X. Timing cycles and stock rotation theory.

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[AskLivermore (Personal) @asklivermoreps]

Make gin at home in 36 hours – no bathtub needed! https://t.co/0kTjgcxx4B

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

Wall Street is literally telling you what to buy. 60+ upgrades in a single month.

Every major bank raised targets or upgraded ratings:

AI Chips: $NVDA $AVGO $AMD $ARM $MRVL $INTC
AI Infra: $CRWV $APP $CRDO $CBRS $VRT $WULF
Software: $IBM $CRM $DDOG $PLTR $SNPS $ZS
Cyber: $PANW
Consumer: $TSLA $META $RBLX $UBER $CAVA $CROX $CMG $WBD $TGT
Financials: $AXP $COF $XYZ $HOOD
Space & defense: $RTX $GD $GE $RKLB $HONA
Healthcare: $UNH $CYTK $MDT $ARGX $IONS
Energy & industrials: $FCEL $URI $NUE
Robotics: $SYM

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

Drone companies like $ONDS, $UMAC, $KTOS, and $AVAV.

Starting to come down to better levels that are making me interested.
Still weak right now, but on my radar for potential bottom formations to occur in the near future.

Drones, I believe is the future of warfare.
The war with Iran really started to showcase its amazing technology and opportunities.
Watch for big military contracts in the future.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

This upcoming week has a good chance of being green.

Since 2004, $SPY has been positive going into the July 4th holiday ~77% of the time.

The week builds momentum day by day:
• Monday: +0.11%
• Tuesday: +0.37%
• Wednesday: +0.59%
• Thursday: +0.59%
• Friday: +1.06% (markets are closed Friday this year)

Average total return: +0.93% in 5 days.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

From 2004 to 2024, $RSP beat $SPY. Healthy market and broad participation.

Then AI happened, a very NARROW rally.
$SPY went from trailing $RSP by 80 points to LEADING by 64 points. The BIGGEST gap in history.

But that gap is starting to CLOSE.
$RSP is outperforming $SPY in 2026 for the first time since 2022.

Every time this happened before, the catch up was fast:
1. Post Nifty Fifty: small caps +35% annualized for a decade
2. Post dot com: Russell 2000 $IWM +47% in year one
3. Post COVID: value and small caps led the rotation

What to do now:
1. Start scaling into sectors that have been left BEHIND
2. Healthcare, industrials, financials, and mid caps historically LEAD when breadth WIDENS

Do not dump the Mag 7 or large-cap tech. But start BALANCING into names that have been ignored.

The broadening has started. History says it accelerates from here.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

Every major supercycle in HISTORY, overlaid on one chart.
The AI cycle is ONLY 45 months old.
This is NOTHING.

Here is what the $SPY DATA says:
1. Post WWII boom lasted 200 months and returned +594%
2. The 1920s lasted 97 months and returned +505%
3. The 1982 to 2000 bull lasted 211 months and returned +1,391%
4. Post GFC lasted 160 months and returned +497%

The AI cycle:
+89% in 45 months.

Based on historicals, we are barely past the STARTING line compared to every prior supercycle.

The shortest one in history (Roaring 20s) still ran for another 4 YEARS from where we are now.
The longest one (1982 to 2000) ran for another 14 years.

But here is the part nobody talks about:
Every single one of these cycles ENDED with a crash.
• The 1920s crashed 89%.
• The dot com bubble crashed 49%.
• COVID crashed 34%.

Stay net long. Stay patient. The best years of this cycle are still AHEAD of us.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

This is what Mag 7s typically do for the REST of the YEAR during a mid-term year.

Here's what happens - and why:

1. $AAPL (+13.8%): the king of the second half
• iPhone launch cycle (announced Sep, ships Oct) gives it a built-in CATALYST right when the post-midterm rally kicks in
• plus Apple's buyback PROGRAM puts a floor under the stock during the weak months

2. $NVDA (+12.3%) - the surprise second-half performer
• semiconductor capex gets PAUSED in the first half when businesses get nervous
• but once midterm uncertainty clears, that pent-up demand SNAPS back hard in Q3/Q4
• the second half is where NVDA makes ALL of its midterm year gains

3. $MSFT (+9.0%) - the steady grinder that accelerates late
• nobody cancels their Microsoft licenses during political uncertainty
• but the real move comes Oct-Dec when enterprise budgets get DEPLOYED before year-end
• reliable, boring, and quietly one of the best H2 performers

4. $AMZN (+2.8%) - modest but positive
• the second half brings holiday spending which LIFTS the retail side
• AWS capex concerns ease as enterprises stop deferring cloud spend
• not exciting, but at least it stops bleeding

5. $GOOGL (+1.8%) - barely positive
• SMB ad budgets start to RECOVER post-midterm but it's slow
• regulatory headlines tend to FADE after elections
• gets back to flat but don't expect fireworks

6. $META (-6.6%) - the second-half disappointment
• despite strong digital ad trends, META tends to GIVE BACK gains in H2
• earnings volatility keeps Wall Street nervous — one miss and it gets PUNISHED
• the wild swings that help in H1 work AGAINST it when sentiment shifts

7. $TSLA (-11.0%) - the worst of the group
• big-ticket consumer discretionary SUFFERS as midterm anxiety lingers
• Tesla trades on SENTIMENT more than fundamentals
• historically the one to AVOID in the second half of midterm years

The takeaway heading into the second half of 2026:

$AAPL and $NVDA are the clear WINNERS - both averaging double-digit gains from July through December.

If you're heavy in $META or $TSLA, consider OFFSETTING potential weakness with stocks in healthcare, industrials, and financials.
They will do MUCH better in 2027.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

My dear followers.
Get READY for July, SURVIVE September, and ride the October-November move for 2026.

Here's how every sector PERFORMS month by month during MID-TERMS and what it means heading into July.

July:
- the BROADEST strength of the entire back half
- every single sector finishes POSITIVE
- tech, energy, and consumer discretionary lead with +4% moves

August:
- the rally STALLS
- half the sectors turn NEGATIVE
- biotech $XBI is the standout at +4.52% while energy $XLE and materials $XLB fade

September:
- this is the month to be CAREFUL
- nearly every sector DIPS
- utilities $XLU and real estate $XLRE get hit hardest
- if you're adding exposure, this is where you WAIT

October:
- the TURN
- STRENGTH comes back almost everywhere
- staples $XLP LEAD at +3.91%, but even the LAGGARDS catch a bid.
- this is historically where the midterm LOW gets put in.

November:
- CONTINUATION
- materials $XLB rip +4.57%. industrials $XLI +3.79%. the cyclicals take over

December:
- profit-taking
- almost every sector gives BACK
- tech DROPS -3.45%, energy -3.01%
- the back half rally takes a BREATHER before the post-midterm year kicks in

A lot of traders have setups. But they do NOT know the timing cycles.
I will always make sure you're STEPS ahead of everyone else.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

Health Care has a 100% win rate in the back half of midterm election years.

Not 80%. Not 90%. ONE HUNDRED PERCENT.

I looked at every midterm year since 2006.
Here's how each sector performed from July to December:

1. Health Care $XLV: +8.46% avg, 100% win rate
2. Industrials $XLI: +7.18%, 80%
3. Materials $XLB: +6.71%, 60%
4. Financials $XLF: +6.68%, 80%
5. Cons. Discretionary $XLY: +6.35%, 60%
6. Cons. Staples $XLP: +6.29%, 80%
7. Utilities $XLU: +6.18%, 80%
8. Technology $XLK: +6.08%, 60%
9. Energy $XLE: +3.26%, 60%
10. Real Estate $XLRE: -7.94%, 0%

The S&P 500 $SPY averaged: +5.95%.

Three things nobody is talking about:
1. Health Care outperforms EVERY sector in midterm H2. Not tech. Not discretionary. Health Care. Five for five.
2. Tech drops to #8. The darling of every other year becomes middle of the pack when midterm volatility kicks in (60% win rate).
3. Real Estate has NEVER been positive Jul-Dec in a midterm year. 0 for 2. Negative every single time.

2026 is a midterm year.
The rotation is underway. It always does.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

June 2026 is DOWN -3.90%.

Since 2005, there have been 12 times where JUNE closed red.

10 out of 12 times, July was GREEN.
That's an 83% win rate.

The LAST 3 times June dropped more than -3%:
• 2022: June -7.90% → July +8.07%
• 2010: June -4.01% → July +7.31%
• 2009: June -2.98% → July +7.02%

Average JULY bounce after a big June selloff: +7.47%.

2026 is also a MIDTERM election year.

July in midterm years SINCE 2006:
• 2006: +0.04%
• 2010: +7.31%
• 2018: +3.48%
• 2022: +8.07%

Win rate: 80%. Average: +3.38%.

The last midterm July?
SPY ripped +8% in a SINGLE month.
History doesn't guarantee anything.
But when 83% of the data points in the same direction, make sure you PAY attention.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

There is good news followers.
History says, we'll have some RELIEF soon.

July in midterm election years (since 2006):
• 2006: +0.04%
• 2010: +7.31%
• 2014: -2.00%
• 2018: +3.48%
• 2022: +8.07%

Win rate: 80%.
Average return: +3.38%.

That's BETTER than July in non-midterm years.

12 months AFTER a midterm election, SPY averages +15.4%. Going back to 1950.

We're 5 months away from that inflection point. The weakness/sell-off you're seeing right now? That IS the setup for the post-election rally.

The weakness comes first. The rally comes second.
We're in the weakness. The +15.4% is coming.

Do NOT miss your entry before October 2026.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

My dear followers. Here are my latest moves:

Since I started my challenge from $100K to $4M:
1. $SPY down -2.72%
2. $QQQ down -3.71%
3. Core portfolio (safer) is up +0.35%
4. 10X portfolio (riskier) is down -0.63%

I am so HAPPY how well we've been holding up together, despite the markets weak and choppy.

Buys:
1. Initiated buy on industrial stocks
2. Initiated buy on biotechnology stocks
3. Added to already existing healthcare positions

Sells:
1. Reduced exposure in downtrending names, like software - still in some software names
2. Sold downtrending stocks, only looking at the best uptrending stocks.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

My dear followers. This is my WARNING again.

Markets are still incredibly bullish long-term.
I still think we have 2+ years worth of uptrend to go.
I still think we can continue to make multiple all-time highs throughout the next few years.

However, I want to warn you that short-term, I expect greater buying opportunities lower for amazing names.

Right now, my portfolio consists of:
1. AI winners - like $GOOGL, $MU, $BB, $GLW, etc.
2. Healthcare - like $ABBV
3. Utilities - like $NEE
4. Biotechnology - like $ABBV
5. Defensives - like $KO
6. Moonshots - like $HOOD and $PL

I am staying balanced until October 2026.

For software, the only names I like right now are $DDOG, $TWLO, and cybersecurity like $CRWD and $NET.

This is the TOUGHEST stretch over the next 3 months.
A lot of chop, low volume, large wicks.
If you buy, it’ll go down.
If you sell, it’ll go up.
Lots of fake outs both sides.

Stay in your AI winners, but I caution you to stay balanced so you can sleep well at night until October 2026.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

Again, another choppy day and weak markets.

It's going to continue to chop around red, green, red, green every single day until October 2026.

If you buy, it'll go down.
If you sell, it'll go up.
Do NOT overtrade, this will be FATAL.

Let the summer pass, and buy constantly every two weeks with your paycheck.

$QQQ went from +2% to red.
$SPY went from green to red as well.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

I am bullish on the biotech industry because of quantum and AI.
Watch companies like $BEAM, and many others.

With new advancements in quantum, AI, and other catalysts, it's only a matter of time before biotech discovers the cure for cancer.

We'll also solve for many other cures.
• Aging - I think quantum biology will add 20+ years to our lives in the future
• Solving paralysis - I also think we'll be able to regenerate severed spinal cords in the future as well

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

Extremely choppy days like today will continue to happen throughout the next few months.

As long as you're surviving, +/- a few % points, you're fine.
Right now, markets did not break the lows yet.
I will be a buyer lower.

Until then, there's nothing to do.
Worst you can do is over trade.

Let the markets drop, and be a buyer lower.
If the markets go higher, that's always a bonus/plus.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

$MU

Micron will have an AMAZING blow out earnings coming up.
Very excited to see it.
However, if $MU breaks DOWN after earnings, I will be a huge buyer at MY key levels.

This could mirror $NVDA back in Feb 2025.
They had an amazing key-note / earnings, that signaled a top.
If this happens to $MU, I will be buying the dips to add to my position in my portfolio for the long-term.

Whatever happens, never be scared of red.
Remember, $MU is in many ETFs like S&P 500, QQQ, XLK - they will ALWAYS have buying pressure long-term from millions of passive investors every two weeks.

-----------

For new investors, a few options here if you're getting started in your investing career

1. If you are up big YTD (more than 10%+), you can lump sum / buy in bulk on great names since you have a bit of cushion in case markets dump -5% or more in the near future

2. If you are just getting started or still cautious, you can buy slowly every day over the next 30 days until you are fully allocated

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

For software, I hold companies like $DDOG and $NOW.

Watch software for a potential relief rally.
I see some are now at levels where there's a chance for the bulls to try and hold.

Strongest names in software are $DDOG and $TWLO.
Potential stars are $ZETA, $MDB, and many others.
The best fundamentals are companies like $MSFT, $NOW, $ADBE, $ORCL, $CRM, and others.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

My dear followers.
Never be scared of red days.

Remember this, markets are systematically DESIGNED to go up.

Every two weeks, MILLIONS of people are passively investing into the markets with their paychecks.
There will ALWAYS be buying pressure.
401Ks, IRA's, pensions, etc.

RAIN or SHINE, do NOT worry about red days.
RED is only temporary.

This is where millionaires are made.
Keep buying on a schedule, and be HAPPY you're getting amazing prices.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

Software like $NOW, $MSFT, $ADBE, $PLTR, $ORCL, $IBM and others.

Software-related jobs are rising in 2026.
This means that AI is a productivity ENHANCER, rather than a job DESTROYER.

Software stocks will be bigger and BETTER in the future.
Just needs the rest of the markets to realize this.
May take some time.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

I am WARNING you now.
This is the START of the chop until October 2026 timing cycle.

My calculations show that ~62% of traders will LOSE money until October 2026.
Not because markets will be WEAK, but a combination of over-trading and trying to find rotations.
Traders are trying to OUTSMART the markets. Don't.

The best thing to do is STAY in your winners.
Let your winners CONTINUE to uptrend.
You can trim 20% - 30%, but do NOT sell fully.

What to do?
1. Balance with AI infrastructure and financials, healthcare, utilities until October 2026.
2. Mag 7's are showing weakness, make sure you have other parts of the AI trade in your books (power, memory, gpu's, optics, etc.)
3. Biotech and financials gaining strength
4. $MSFT, $PLTR, $NFLX and other software very weak; size appropriately. Can hold, but if you hold, I wouldn't make it my top allocation in my portfolio.

Peak-to-trough drawdown:
• March 2026: ~-6.4%; first real ugly month - VIX spiked hard
• April 2026: ~-9.6%; very choppy recovery - big dip early, then strong rally
• May 2026: ~-4.6%; decent but still had a solid pullback
• June 2026: ~-5.0% (so far); already down ~5% from early June high

I will make sure you SURVIVE until October of 2026.

Until then, stay in uptrending industries. Cut your losers.
It's going to be a very CHOPPY ride.
Expect red, green, red, green, red, green, constantly.