Note that top normally forms slowly as a range, we expect stock market to chop all the way until mid-late August (it will likely form a new higher high then), where you start to see some durable weakness.
Check out @askmiru's most recent history analog:
SPX/USM2 is tracing the 1999–2000 topping fractal with uncomfortable precision. Same parabolic exhaustion. Same MA compression into distribution.
Nominal indices obscure what's actually happening. Deflate by M2 and the picture is unambiguous: this is what the end of a business cycle looks like, and we are past the peak.
The dot-com analog resolved with a 49% nominal drawdown over 30 months (so the actual drawdown will be less considering the increase of M2) — and that understates the damage.
Pattern recognition isn't prediction. But when the structure rhymes this closely, the burden of proof will shift to the bulls over time.
Note: This is a 4hr chart, if history repeats here we will see a top around the end of May and a sharp drop followed by another rally (distribution around the top area for 6 months) before major drawdown occurs.
Check out @askmiru's most recent history analog:
SPX/USM2 is tracing the 1999–2000 topping fractal with uncomfortable precision. Same parabolic exhaustion. Same MA compression into distribution.
Nominal indices obscure what's actually happening. Deflate by M2 and the picture is unambiguous: this is what the end of a business cycle looks like, and we are past the peak.
The dot-com analog resolved with a 49% nominal drawdown over 30 months (so the actual drawdown will be less considering the increase of M2) — and that understates the damage.
Pattern recognition isn't prediction. But when the structure rhymes this closely, the burden of proof will shift to the bulls over time.
Note: This is a 4hr chart, if history repeats here we will see a top around the end of May and a sharp drop followed by another rally (distribution around the top area for 6 months) before major drawdown occurs.
See tomorrow through history.
Miru maps today’s market events and chart structures to historical analogs — so you can see what usually comes next.
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