Steve Miller

#Financial Show Host Trader/Analyst #Poker player, #ClassicalLiberal #CycleAnalysis #Charting #Stocks #Futures #Markets #Trading #Investing 🇺🇸🇮🇱✡️

[Steve Miller @askslim]

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[Steve Miller @askslim]

SpaceX is expected to debut on Thursday around $135 a share. That implies a valuation of $1.75 trillion, or roughly 94x sales.
Morningstar analysts stated that SpaceX’s valuation should be less than half of that figure, closer to $780 billion.

The stock market is weakening today. This is probably not “the day the bubble burst,” but with this massive $SPCX IPO, it may be the day the bubble became more obvious to many
#Bubble #AI #stocks

[Steve Miller @askslim]

@cps23800 I hope you enjoy the ride in “Fantasy Land”

[Steve Miller @askslim]

SpaceX is expected to debut on Thursday around $135 a share. That implies a valuation of $1.75 trillion, or roughly 94x sales.
Morningstar analysts stated that SpaceX’s valuation should be less than half of that figure, closer to $780 billion.

The stock market is weakening today. This is probably not “the day the bubble burst,” but with this massive $SPCX IPO, it may be the day the bubble became more obvious to many
#Bubble #AI #stocks

[Steve Miller @askslim]

Here is something of interest today regarding the stock market. It’s early in the day, but one thing we are seeing is that all of the major indexes are down today. I actually thought they outlawed that!

So at least early today, it looks like it is not a rotational day, which has supported the market for the last nine weeks if not for the last 15-months.
#stockmarket #S&P500 #NASDAQ #Russell2000 #DowJonesIndustrialAverage

[Steve Miller @askslim]

Question. Those of you that follow the crypto; why would @saylor sell 32 bitcoin to pay preferred dividends? What does that mean about his cash position? Recent months, he paid much higher prices for bitcoin. Is this just normal cash flow management or a dangerous sign?

[Steve Miller @askslim]

@DimitrisTsint Yes, possibly

[Steve Miller @askslim]

When Price Moves Ahead of Earnings
After more than 50 years in the markets, one of the clearest patterns I’ve observed is that price often leads fundamentals.
We are seeing this dynamic right now in semiconductors and AI-related stocks. The stocks have had an extraordinary run, driven by powerful momentum and extremely strong earnings growth.
But history shows that in major bull markets, especially those fueled by one dominant theme, stock prices frequently peak and begin declining well before earnings actually deteriorate.
The clearest example was the dot-com peak in March 2000. At the top, the Nasdaq Composite was trading at a forward P/E well over 100. Many semiconductor and tech companies were still showing strong earnings growth.
By late 2002, after the bubble burst, the Nasdaq had fallen ~78%, and forward P/Es for many names collapsed into single digits as earnings expectations were slashed.
The price move came first. The fundamentals followed.
Today we see similar extreme optimism and concentration in AI and semiconductors. I’m not calling for an immediate collapse. But once there is just whiff that this earnings growth is slowing, or the funds are not there to support the massive borrowing need to sustain this circular earnings burst, P/E ratios can get shockingly low, shockingly fast.
This is one to watch very carefully.
#NVDA #StockMarket #Investing #AI #Valuations

[Steve Miller @askslim]

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[Steve Miller @askslim]

Maybe so

[Steve Miller @askslim]

When Price Moves Ahead of Earnings
After more than 50 years in the markets, one of the clearest patterns I’ve observed is that price often leads fundamentals.
We are seeing this dynamic right now in semiconductors and AI-related stocks. The stocks have had an extraordinary run, driven by powerful momentum and extremely strong earnings growth.
But history shows that in major bull markets, especially those fueled by one dominant theme, stock prices frequently peak and begin declining well before earnings actually deteriorate.
The clearest example was the dot-com peak in March 2000. At the top, the Nasdaq Composite was trading at a forward P/E well over 100. Many semiconductor and tech companies were still showing strong earnings growth.
By late 2002, after the bubble burst, the Nasdaq had fallen ~78%, and forward P/Es for many names collapsed into single digits as earnings expectations were slashed.
The price move came first. The fundamentals followed.
Today we see similar extreme optimism and concentration in AI and semiconductors. I’m not calling for an immediate collapse. But once there is just whiff that this earnings growth is slowing, or the funds are not there to support the massive borrowing need to sustain this circular earnings burst, P/E ratios can get shockingly low, shockingly fast.
This is one to watch very carefully.
#NVDA #StockMarket #Investing #AI #Valuations

[Steve Miller @askslim]

@stevenlp It does seem that way. In some ways, comparable historical references are more extreme. Each period has its own unique markings. And each one seemed “inhuman” in some way. That is the real common thread.

[Steve Miller @askslim]

@nickyjtrades I can tell you are relatively new to this.

[Steve Miller @askslim]

The question is not if the stock market will take a major hit, starting a real bear market. That’s a given. The question is how much more will it become overextended first?

[BraVoCycles Newsletter @BraVoCycles]

Breaking: US stock market is most overvalued in over 100 Years

A basket of valuation metrics indicates that the stock market is more overvalued than at the 2000 dot-com bubble and even 1929 market peak.

[Steve Miller @askslim]

@LiveMarketChat I agree with you. This time the companies are real and earnings growth is huge. There will be an end to that and when the market starts pricing that in, PE will be shockingly low.

[Steve Miller @askslim]

The question is not if the stock market will take a major hit, starting a real bear market. That’s a given. The question is how much more will it become overextended first?

[Steve Miller @askslim]

The “Snake in the Grass” Approach to Trading
After more than 50 years in the markets, I’ve found one of the most effective ways to explain good technical analysis and position management is with a simple analogy.
Think of a snake in the grass.
It doesn’t chase every movement. It stays patient. It lurks quietly, watching and waiting for the right conditions. It sniffs the air, takes a small taste to confirm what it’s sensing, and only then — when the moment is right — does it strike with full force.
That’s exactly how I believe the best traders operate.
You do the analysis. You wait for the market to show confirmation. You take a small “taste” position to test the waters. And when the market proves your analysis is correct and the impulse begins, you pour it on and ride the bigger move.
This is the real secret to capturing the large profits — patiently waiting for high-probability setups and then having the discipline to scale in when the market validates your work.
The snake doesn’t succeed by being the fastest. It succeeds by being the most patient and decisive when the time is right.
#Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #StockMarket #TradingStrategy

[Steve Miller @askslim]

Extremely Narrow Breadth at New All-Time Highs
Last Friday the S&P 500 made a new all-time high.
Yet only about 20 stocks in the entire index made new 52-week highs on that day.
This is remarkably narrow participation.
For comparison, at the March 2000 dot-com peak, breadth was also extremely poor despite the headline highs. A small handful of stocks were carrying the entire market while most names lagged badly. That narrow leadership preceded one of the most painful bear markets in modern history.
We are seeing similar signs today — strong index levels supported by very few stocks, with the rest of the market struggling to keep up.
After more than 50 years watching these cycles, I’ve learned that when new highs are made on such thin participation, the market is more vulnerable than the headline numbers suggest.
This is worth watching very closely.
#StockMarket #SP500 #MarketBreadth #Investing

[Steve Miller @askslim]

When two sides are shooting at each other, I have a hard time seeing how that’s a “cease-fire”

[Steve Miller @askslim]

Extremely Narrow Breadth at New All-Time Highs
Last Friday the S&P 500 made a new all-time high.
Yet only about 20 stocks in the entire index made new 52-week highs on that day.
This is remarkably narrow participation.
For comparison, at the March 2000 dot-com peak, breadth was also extremely poor despite the headline highs. A small handful of stocks were carrying the entire market while most names lagged badly. That narrow leadership preceded one of the most painful bear markets in modern history.
We are seeing similar signs today — strong index levels supported by very few stocks, with the rest of the market struggling to keep up.
After more than 50 years watching these cycles, I’ve learned that when new highs are made on such thin participation, the market is more vulnerable than the headline numbers suggest.
This is worth watching very closely.
#StockMarket #SP500 #MarketBreadth #Investing