Aaron Smith

Director of Education Reform at Reason Foundation. Free minds and free markets. @ReasonFdn @Reason

[Aaron Smith @ASmithAZ]

Reason’s latest K-12 study takes a comprehensive look at resources and outcomes for all 50 states over the past two decades.

Bringing together key revenue, expenditure, enrollment, staffing, and NAEP data, here are five key takeaways from our report.

https://t.co/CHsfmMQDAL

🧵1/9

[Reason Foundation @ReasonFdn]

As public school choice expands across the country, new data show a clear pattern: families are using open enrollment to move their children to higher-performing districts, writes @JudeSchwalbach.

https://t.co/vsgWPOfZEh

[Aaron Smith @ASmithAZ]

It seems the more I study community schools, the less I understand what they are and how they're supposed to improve K-12 outcomes.

Exhibit A:

[Aaron Smith @ASmithAZ]

@NealMcCluskey Not to mention the effects on general ed classrooms.

But it’s difficult to have a rational, nuanced conversation about it.

[Aaron Smith @ASmithAZ]

@DuellSays It will take some time to play out, but I’m not optimistic.

[Aaron Smith @ASmithAZ]

Federal school choice will likely be a financial windfall for public schools in the long run.

And I don’t think that’s a good thing.

[Robert Pondiscio @rpondiscio]

Maybe; maybe not. In blue states the money could flow back into public education through tutoring, therapies, after-school programs, and side-income streams for teachers. Choice could end up looking less like “exit” and more like an educational services marketplace built around traditional public schools.

[Aaron Smith @ASmithAZ]

@NealMcCluskey There’s a reason Arne Duncan jumped on board (and it’s not because he’s changed his mind on private school choice)

https://t.co/kyFnNuZtZo

[Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil]

Researchers used administrative data from Florida and looked at the effects of teacher experience, advanced degree attainment, and professional development.

Effects on student achievement were meager, and often not in the direction you'd hope:

[Aaron Smith @ASmithAZ]

@ALegalProcess It’s incredibly irresponsible. They’re banking on an influx of state dollars, but otherwise have no way to pay for these deals.

[Aaron Smith @ASmithAZ]

LAUSD has a billion-dollar budget deficit but has agreed to hire hundreds of new support staff.

“UTLA’s deal includes a 12% average salary increase for teachers, paid parental leave, class-size reductions, limits on subcontracting, and hiring hundreds of new support staff, such as counselors, nurses, and psychologists.”

[Reason Foundation @ReasonFdn]

LAUSD avoided a teachers' strike, but the costly union deals it approved will deepen the school district’s already large budget deficits. Now, LAUSD is effectively banking on a taxpayer bailout to stay afloat.

https://t.co/pIwmYYRRG9

[Reason Foundation @ReasonFdn]

LAUSD agreed to the costly demands of United Teachers Los Angeles to avoid a strike, but now the school district’s only hope is a bailout from state taxpayers, writes @ASmithAZ.

https://t.co/lTLTjBzTKE

[Aaron Smith @ASmithAZ]

The biggest drain on teacher pay isn’t inflation, it’s:

1) Mission Drift: Public schools have invested heavily in the “whole child” approach, hiring thousands of new social workers, counselors, psychologists, etc.

2) Pension Debt: For decades states have underfunded pension promises, resulting in increased contribution rates with the same or even worse retirement benefits.

Inflation has been a problem in recent years, but policymakers must address structural problems with K-12 finance if they want to move the needle on teacher pay.

[Marc Porter Magee 🎓 @marcportermagee]

At its height, the NYC public school system educated 1.2 million kids a year. Ten years ago that dropped below 1 million. The current estimates are about 880,000. Ten years from now it could be only 700,000. And yet the budget just keeps going up.

[Reason Foundation @ReasonFdn]

Since 2007, the number of births in the U.S. has dropped by 18%. This means that nearly 718,000 fewer children were born in 2025 than in 2007.

Fewer kids means fewer students in classrooms, which leads to less funding for public schools since budgets are largely based on enrollment.

https://t.co/ARhfoK8IbN

[Aaron Smith @ASmithAZ]

The remarkable thing isn’t just that public school spending hit the $1 trillion mark.

It’s that funding keeps growing despite widespread enrollment losses.

Public schools have lost 1.2 million students since the start of COVID-19, but inflation-adjusted funding is as record levels.

Trends vary by state.

But lawmakers would be wise to shift the focus from “how much”funding to “how to” use funding more productively.

[Marguerite Roza @MargueriteRoza]

A BREAKING release of fed financial data from FY24 (yes, I get the irony) shows that K12 spend is now over $1 trillion. National avg is over $17K.

We cover what's relevant in today's newsletter. Link in next post.

[Aaron Smith @ASmithAZ]

It's important to keep in mind that these figures are "current" expenditures, which means they don't include spending on capital, construction, etc.

That's why it's better to look at revenue.

Public school funding in 2024 was $21,065 per student. These are the dollars public schools received from federal, state, and local sources.

Isolating operating expenditures is useful and has its place.

But there's generally no reason to ignore such a large chunk of taxpayer funding.

[Dale Chu @Dale_Chu]

K–12 spending just topped $1 TRILLION.

Per-pupil: ~$18K and rising.

Outcomes? That’s a different story.

[Dale Chu @Dale_Chu]

“New York and California’s combined trajectories alone–losses of about 347,000 and 931,000 students, respectively–would account for 47% of the nation’s projected enrollment losses in 2031.” @JudeSchwalbach

[Jude Schwalbach @JudeSchwalbach]

Here’s the state by state estimated percent change in public school enrollment

[Jude Schwalbach @JudeSchwalbach]

Declining K-12 enrollments weren’t a pandemic anomaly, NCES estimated that public schools will lose 4 million students between 2020-31. Forecasts estimate that just 9 states will gain students by 2031
https://t.co/zYikvq29Zg