degenitalius 🕊️

full-time mechanical engineer *meanwhile trying to recover 5 years worth of income lost during the bera*

[Heart @heart_]

nobody is atheist at 50x leverage

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

MY THEORY ON WHAT’S REALLY HAPPENING

The United States tripled its money supply over the past two decades. That’s not some abstract economic trivia. That’s the foundational distortion that shaped every asset class, every risk model, every portfolio built since GFC. We spent nearly a decade pretending the cost of capital didn’t matter -- that money could be free, and the consequences deferred. The results? Mortgage rates below inflation, a stock market priced for perfection, and a generation of investors who came to believe gravity no longer applied.

Now we’re just waking up from the dream, and people are treating the hangover like it’s some unexpected injustice. As if 3% mortgage rates were a natural right. As if the $QQQ only ever goes up. But this isn’t some rogue detour. This is the return to reality. And reality hurts.

But here’s where it gets more complex -- and more dangerous. Because what we’re seeing isn’t just the result of delayed normalization. It’s not just the unwinding of pandemic stimulus or rate repression. There’s something else layered beneath the surface. And the signs aren’t subtle.

This isn’t policy drift. It’s a campaign. A strategic, targeted repositioning of America’s role in the global economy. And if you look at the moves -- tariffs, trade threats, the rhetoric around reshoring, the calculated pressure on allies -- the target becomes clear. It’s not inflation. It’s not even the bond market.

It’s China.

You don’t have to believe in conspiracy to see the throughline. Over the last couple years, the tone in Washington has shifted from cooperation to confrontation. Even the doves have turned hawkish. And for the first time in decades, the U.S. is structuring trade and capital policy not around growth -- but around LEVERAGE. Around weaponizing our position as the global buyer of last resort.

And let’s be honest: we are the demand engine. We’re the end market. China might rival us in GDP, but their economy is still built on exports -- not internal demand. Their strength relies on moving goods out, not pulling capital in. And that makes them vulnerable. Because if you want to break an export economy, you don’t just go after their goods directly. You go after EVERYONE. You raise tariffs across the board. You force the world to choose. Us or them.

You don’t get both.

And that’s exactly what’s happening. This isn’t scattershot anymore. It’s a campaign of forced alignment. Vietnam, Mexico, Europe -- they’re all feeling the pressure. Even Israel and Lesotho aren’t spared. Why? Because the point isn’t fairness. The point is forcing a break. If the entire global system orients around the U.S. consumer, then tariffs become a blunt, brutal way of redrawing the map. You want access to our markets? Play by new rules. Choose your team.

And if that’s the game being played -- not economic stewardship, but geopolitical realignment -- then no amount of earnings beats are going to stabilize markets. Because the market doesn’t just price data. It prices direction. And right now, direction is unclear. Volatility isn’t a function of fear -- it’s a function of uncertainty. And uncertainty is policy.

Which is why I’m not being aggressive about buying this dip. It’s not that I’m bearish on innovation -- the 4th industrial revolution is just getting started with names like $PLTR, $CRWD, $SNOW, $AXON, $NET, $AMZN, and $TSLA. It’s not that I doubt the long-term strength of U.S. enterprise. It’s that I don’t know the rules anymore. And neither does the market.

Capital doesn’t rush into ambiguity. It pulls back. It reassesses. It maintains optionality. And that’s what’s happening. Under the surface of every investment and every earnings reaction is the same question: can I even model what comes next?

The truth is, until China blinks -- or Trump backs down -- this is going to be the backdrop. Not because the market is broken. But because it’s working. It’s doing its job. Pricing the regime, not just the risk.

And if there’s no clarity, there’s no bid.

We saw what happened on a rumor -- markets ripped 8% in a single day. That’s how starved this market is for any sign of policy coherence. A real deal with China? The tape wouldn’t just rally. It would melt faces.

But we don’t have that headline. We have noise. We have the sense that something big is happening, but no confirmation of what it is or where it leads. And that’s not a market you trade. That’s a market you survive.

I don’t say that with cynicism. I say it with clarity. Because what we’re witnessing right now isn’t a cycle. It’s a regime shift. One that views the economic playbook as outdated. One that sees disruption not as risk, but as leverage.

So no -- this isn’t the detox we were promised. It’s not a thoughtful recalibration of America’s industrial base. It’s not an orderly unwind of global imbalance. It’s a controlled demolition, with no architectural plan for what gets built next.

And markets, for all their flaws, know better than to bet on blueprints that haven’t been drawn.

[insomniac @insomniacxbt]

In all honesty, trading + navigating crypto markets are a lot easier once you stop relying so heavily on other people's thoughts here.

It's why majority of my time is spent on the charts - it removes bias.

Most of my replies on here and my main act are simply "so where do we bid", "when do we buy", etc.

I am not smart enough to predict what will happen; I am simply just managing my own book by my own rules.

[degenitalius 🕊️ @ass0vert1ts]

@glitchcapital you think we arw getting a retest?

[degenitalius 🕊️ @ass0vert1ts]

@glitchcapital respect for being honest

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

the quicker you can accept that all TA is just voodoo arbitrary BS that merely helps your brain send a signal down to your gut to justify why you're positioned the way you are, the better

stop arguing about TA in 2024, and focus on yourself.

that's all.

[hdf @PaikCapital]

the normies pushed the cardano coin to $92,000,000,000 last cycle

believe in something.

[Gammichan @gammichan]

Long but important post: As turbo bull as I am, there is one thing on the far horizon that scares me, rate cuts.

Did you know interest rate payments represent 7% of the US GDP? Have you noticed inflation is stuck at 3%+ for months? That's because the trillions in interest payments being injected are causing a higher baseline level of growth than back before when we were holding 2%.

Have you thought it's strange that assets are flying while rates are "tight"? It literally is different this time and the difference this rate hike cycle is that debt is larger than GDP. The debt is not being paid down in this case, it is entering the economy and causing inflation. It's like a homeowner who can't make their full mortgage payments so the debt keeps increasing resulting in the bank having more money (you owe them more now) and then the bank eventually recycles that money back into the economy through other loans. Same mechanism, the US debt interest payments are accumulating and finding their way back into the economy.

This all stops when rates drop. Read that again, we lose 7% of the US GDP if rates go back to zero. This is almost twice as large of a GDP decrease than 2008 was (4.2%). Not great.

The bull case here is that one way out is destroying the dollar and inflating away the debt. This is bullish risk assets and likely what they continue to do in the near future. It's when this stops that concerns me. This is in addition to the traditional bear case for rate cuts which is that money floods into treasuries initially to lock in the rates before they fall, giving a short term headwind to risk.

Furthermore this has some confluence with it being an election year and also the global liquidity cycle being at the lows and turning up. It lines up with those facts that they would continue juicing it for a while at the expense of inflation which they can just point to it being down from 9% and calling it a win anyway.

This choice pushes the issue down the road and we know the government loves to do that. Additionally I expect Trump to win the election and with how much the establishment hates him it would be no surprise if they engineer it to leave him holding the bag.

TLDR; The party likely keeps going for a while on the back of inflation and a weakening dollar but there are landmines on this path and it's critical how we dance around them when they appear. Rate cuts are one such landmine and it's important to assess from a first principles approach when we get there because it quite literally is different this time, we are in unprecedented territory with debt>gdp.

[Gammichan @gammichan]

Love this game but there's so much more I want to do, need to do, with my life. This was always meant to enable that, not take time away from it. Will always keep playing, just from the second row, not the front.

[0xHedge @0xHedge32]

Daily reminder that none of us are geniuses

We happen to be born during one of the greatest asset class booms of all time

Figuring out that you should press the green button 15 years after Bitcoin came out does not make you the next Warren Buffett

Appreciate the free money and enjoy your life

[Motif @TraderMotif]

I don’t tend to post paragraphs on what price could and couldn’t do next because it’s a waste of time.

Mark your levels out, wait until you see the thing you want to see then execute.

If there is nothing clear, sit on your hands. Stop overcomplicating it, stop overthinking it.

[degenitalius 🕊️ @ass0vert1ts]

@level941 bro go listen to pigeonometry by aesop rock, should suit you

[degenitalius 🕊️ @ass0vert1ts]

@gammichan do you have a ltf post etf target price?

[degenitalius 🕊️ @ass0vert1ts]

@AltcoinSherpa Isn't it better to wait until market pukes post etf?

[degenitalius 🕊️ @ass0vert1ts]

@gammichan Oh cool, I did electric FSAE in Germany a couple of years ago. I am building a turbo merc 190e, but it takes a while because i try to everything myself - flywheel, intake and exhaust manifolds, suspension... Good luck with the 930 :)

[degenitalius 🕊️ @ass0vert1ts]

@insomniacxbt Interesting how we suddenly hopped from a mini bull market to the actual one.

[degenitalius 🕊️ @ass0vert1ts]

@CryptoPoseidonn Get the proper(first gen) one. A better drivers car mainly due to weight. Also is cheaper and is going to appreciate at some point, unlike this one.

[degenitalius 🕊️ @ass0vert1ts]

@TraderMercury when does it end though? post or pre etf?

[degenitalius 🕊️ @ass0vert1ts]

@__bleeker what number do we ride it to?