Asset Analysis

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[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

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[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

Oil just dropped below $80, down ~5% today, as the US-Iran deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz. A week ago this same conflict had crude spiking. Geopolitical risk premiums build fast AND evaporate fast. Markets are repricing live.

Why it matters beyond gas prices: falling energy costs feed directly into CPI. After this week's hot inflation print had the Fed on edge, a sustained drop toward $80 oil takes real pressure off the inflation outlook — one less reason for the Fed to stay hawkish.

It's showing up everywhere today: Nasdaq +2.2%, S&P +1.3%, Dow +1.2%, energy stocks lagging hard. SpaceX ($SPCX ) is also up another ~5.6% on day 2, now ~31% above its IPO price. Risk-on mood is real.

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

Happy $SPCX Day!

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

Headline CPI hit 4.2% today, a 3-year high — but core came in at just 2.9% YoY, below forecast. The entire upside surprise is energy, up 23.5% on the Iran conflict. Yet markets just repriced from cuts to a 63% chance of a Fed HIKE by October. Fighting a supply shock with demand tools? $SPY $USO $TLT

This is the 2022 playbook almost exactly. The Fed initially called energy-driven inflation "transitory," then once headline stayed elevated long enough, expectations started drifting and they hiked into a slowdown anyway. The risk was never just the number — it's whether it changes behavior.

What actually decides this: inflation expectations. If 5-year breakevens and the Michigan survey stay anchored despite the energy spike, the Fed has room to look through it. If they start drifting up, today's 63% hike odds stop being a forecast and start being a forecast that creates its own outcome.

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

Oil's giving back its war premium — under $90 this morning after Iran/Israel agreed to halt strikes, down from the $97 spike. Yesterday's selloff looked like fear, not fundamentals, and fear reprices fast. Watching whether defense names give back gains too. $USO $ITA $SPY

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

Today's bounce: Middle East de-escalation.

Irony: WTI crude hit $94 on the same conflict — a fresh inflationary hit heading into Wednesday's CPI.

CME FedWatch now shows 60% odds of a rate *hike* in 2026.

Celebrating geopolitics while the macro deteriorates. $SPY $USO

This isn't just "no rate cuts." FedWatch is pricing a *hike* at 60% for 2026.

That's the market saying: sticky inflation + hot jobs + $90+ crude = the Fed may have to tighten further.

The 10Y is already at 4.54%. Growth stocks don't love what comes next.

The tell on whether this bounce has legs: does $QQQ close above Friday's levels before Wednesday CPI?

If not, today is just geopolitical noise getting faded into the real macro data.

Watch the close.

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

Futures are mixed this morning as oil surges on renewed Iran-Israel tensions — WTI up ~4.5% to $94.58.

Tech is taking fire from two directions: $SOX had its worst day since 2020 on Broadcom's guidance miss, and now a blowout 172K jobs print just crushed any rate-cut hopes.

Broadcom's Q3 AI chip guidance miss (~$16B vs. $17.2B expected) triggered a $1T+ wipeout in semis last week ($NVDA -6%, $AMD -12.6%, $MU -17%). This morning's 172K May jobs print — more than double consensus — eliminated remaining rate-cut hopes and sent Nasdaq futures down another 4.8%, compounding an already-damaged tech tape heading into Wednesday's CPI release.

CPI Wednesday. That's the next line in the sand. $QQQ $NVDA

What makes Wednesday's CPI so pivotal: if core comes in hot, the Fed is stuck — and markets will have to reprice not just "no cut in 2026" but potentially a *hike* back on the table. The 10Y is already at 4.54%. Growth stocks have nowhere to hide if that moves higher.

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

$AVGO -14% and $CRWD -11% premarket. Two major tech misses in one morning while oil holds $95 on Iran risk. Tech/energy correlation is flipping — exactly the divergence that tends to reset sector weightings. $QQQ $XLE $SMH

Broadcom missed Q2 revenue expectations, CrowdStrike guided soft for Q2. Neither is a macro story — these are company-specific. But when two heavyweights crack simultaneously, the market reads it as a sector signal. Watch semis at the open: does $SMH hold its 50-day or does this accelerate?

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

Jobs week begins. April JOLTS drops at 10am ET — first of four labor reports building to Friday's NFP. March showed 6.9M openings. Fed is firmly in wait-and-see; any softness here reignites rate cut talk. $SPY near all-time highs — labor data is the next test.

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

Daily Recap — June 1, 2026

Market Close | June 1, 2026

S&P 500 ▲ 0.26% → 7,599 (first-ever 7,600 touch ✅)
Nasdaq ▲ 0.42% → 27,087 (first-ever close above 27K ✅)
Dow ▲ 0.09% → 51,079
Russell 2000 ~flat

Records across the board to kick off June. Tech carried, oil rattled, Iran complicated. Full breakdown:

1. The Nvidia Effect — again.

$NVDA +6.2% after Jensen announced a new chip targeting the PC market. The ripple was immediate:
• $DELL +10%
• $HPQ +8% (Up an additional 30% after hours)
• $IBM +6.5% (also got a Trump bump from a recirculated video)
• $CRM +9.7%

AI-adjacent hardware is still the market's center of gravity. Nvidia has now become a macro event every time it speaks.

2. The fly in the ointment: Iran.

A fresh exchange of U.S.-Iran strikes rattled markets mid-session, briefly pushing crude +3% and sending futures negative. But by close, optimism crept back in — Axios reported negotiators agreed to extend the ceasefire and open nuclear talks.

Oil pulled back. Stocks recovered. The pattern of the last few months: geopolitics creates the dip, détente bids it back up.

10-yr yield: ~4.44%. PCE still running hot at 3.8% YoY. Fed has no easy path here.

Other movers:
• $TMHC +big: Berkshire acquiring Taylor Morrison in a $6.8B all-cash deal
• $GPRO -12%: going concern warning. The action camera era may be closing.

3. What's on deck tomorrow:

• JOLTS job openings (first look at May labor data ahead of Friday's big nonfarm payrolls)
• $PANW earnings after close — AI security is the new hot corner; any guide-down will sting
• $AVGO (Broadcom) drops Wednesday — the other semiconductor event of the week
• AH tonight: $HPE exploded +20% on a monster beat (rev +40% YoY). $CRDO -15% despite a beat — guidance wasn't enough

Markets want the labor market to crack just enough for the Fed to cut. Friday's payrolls will do more for the June meeting narrative than anything else this week.

Summary:
June opened with all three major indexes at record highs, driven by an Nvidia-led tech surge after Jensen Huang unveiled a PC chip pushing the AI buildout into consumer hardware. Geopolitical volatility — a fresh U.S.-Iran exchange of strikes — briefly spooked oil and futures before ceasefire extension talks restored risk appetite. The week's real test comes Friday with May nonfarm payrolls, which will define the Fed's June posture on a backdrop of sticky 3.8% PCE inflation and a 10-year yield still hovering near 4.44%.

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

The PC chip market has been a two-horse race for 40 years. Today, NVIDIA entered. The N1X isn't just a new product — it's a platform shift from x86 to ARM, the same transition that already happened in mobile and is now happening in data centers. Intel and AMD have seen this before. They lost mobile.

What makes this different from Qualcomm's ARM push: NVIDIA brings CUDA. The 1B+ developers already writing GPU code don't have to relearn anything. That's not a chip launch — that's an ecosystem lock-in play. $NVDA

Meanwhile, oil is up 7% on Iran tensions and the Dow is slipping. The market today is running two opposite narratives at once: geopolitical risk-off in macro, and tech euphoria in semis. When those diverge this sharply, one of them is usually wrong.

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

Jensen Huang just entered the PC processor market. $NVDA's N1X — ARM-based CPU + Blackwell GPU fused in one chip — debuts on Dell, HP, and Microsoft laptops this fall.

The chip, co-developed with Microsoft and MediaTek, triggered a broad ARM-ecosystem rally ($ARM +12%, $HPE +12.6%, $IBM +12.7%, ServiceNow +14.4%) while Intel and AMD fell in premarket trading.

The N1X includes CUDA support and 128GB unified memory. If developers can run existing CUDA workloads natively on laptops, $NVDA's moat extends well beyond data centers. $INTC's next earnings call just got a lot more interesting.

The PC CPU duopoly just got disrupted.

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

April PCE came in at 3.8% YoY (core 3.3%), driven by oil shock from the Iran conflict and tariff pass-through — crushing any remaining hope for 2026 Fed rate cuts. Despite this, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new records Thursday on AI earnings strength (Snowflake +30%, MSFT/ORCL/PLTR +3-4%). The macro vs. momentum tension is the story heading into today's close — the last trading day of May.

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

Dow hits a record. Nasdaq slips. Oil -3% on Iran deal murmurs. $PG +3%, $HD +2%.

This is what rotation looks like mid-bull market — money isn't leaving, it's repositioning. Chips pause, defensives step up.

The AI chip trade ran hard — $MU +19% in a single session yesterday. When a sector moves that fast, consolidation isn't bearish, it's healthy. The real question: does leadership broaden from here, or does the market wait for tonight's $MRVL print to decide?

Oil at $91 and falling matters beyond energy stocks. If the Iran deal materializes and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, lower input costs flow through to industrials, consumer names, and margins broadly. Today's Dow strength may have more legs than a one-day rotation story.

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

$MU hit $1T yesterday, up another 5% premarket— up ~10x in a year as AI memory demand outpaces supply. HBM sold out through end of 2026.

Tonight $MRVL reports after a 170% post-earnings run. Custom silicon + memory aren't a trade anymore. They're a market regime.

$CRM also reports tonight. While chips get the hype, Salesforce's Agentforce platform is the enterprise layer sitting on top of all this AI infrastructure. Two different parts of the stack reporting the same night — worth watching both.

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

Daily Recap — May 26, 2026

📊 MARKET CLOSE — May 26, 2026

$SPX +0.61% → 7,519 (NEW ATH)
$NDX +1.19% → 26,656 (NEW ATH)
$DJI -0.23% → 50,462
$RUT +0.91% → 2,869

Tech and small-caps led. The Dow lagged. Micron just joined the $1 trillion club.

First day back from Memorial Day and markets said: we're still in the trade. 🧵

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The story of the day: $MU surged ~18%, crossing $1 TRILLION in market cap for the first time.

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri tripled his price target — from $535 to $1,625 — projecting $1.8T in market cap as AI memory demand locks in for years.

The thesis: Micron isn't a commodity chip maker anymore. It has multi-year supply agreements with fixed pricing on HBM and DRAM. UBS sees $400B+ in cumulative free cash flow from 2027–2029.

HBM4 is sold out through year-end. They can only meet 50–67% of customer demand. This isn't speculation — it's a supply constraint problem for Micron's customers, not Micron.

Street-high price target. Most aggressive semiconductor upgrade in recent memory.

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On the other end: $AZO got punished.

AutoZone dropped ~10% after Q3 revenue came in at $4.84B — just shy of the $4.86B estimate. EPS actually beat ($38.07 vs $36.18 expected), but the market didn't care.

$ORLY fell ~4% in sympathy.

The macro backdrop isn't helping auto parts. Consumer confidence slipped again in May — Conference Board index fell to 93.1, with households citing oil prices and the Iran war as growing financial concerns. When people are worried about gas prices, they're also watching every repair bill.

Meanwhile, a U.S.-Iran deal "in principle" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz sent Treasury yields lower and helped offset broader sentiment drag. Markets returning from the long weekend walked into a geopolitical landscape that's... cautiously improving.

Durable goods orders also surprised to the upside (+0.8%), suggesting the underlying economy still has legs despite the noise.

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👀 What's on deck Wednesday:

• Iran-US peace deal progress — any official announcement could move oil hard in either direction. Watch crude and energy stocks at the open.

• Q1 GDP second estimate drops **Thursday** (May 28) — advance read was +2.0% annualized. Any revision could reset rate expectations.

• 48 earnings reports Wednesday — stay tuned for sector rotation signals.

• $MU aftershocks — does the AI memory trade broaden to $AMAT, $LRCX, $ASML?

The setup: tech at records, small-caps catching up, geopolitics improving (maybe). As long as the Iran deal holds and rates cooperate, this tape wants to go higher.

---

Summary:
May 26 was the first session after Memorial Day weekend, and markets opened with cautious optimism around a reported U.S.-Iran deal in principle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The session was dominated by Micron's historic +18% surge — its first $1 trillion market cap close — after UBS issued the most aggressive semiconductor analyst upgrade in recent memory. Consumer confidence data softened, AutoZone's revenue miss dragged auto parts retailers down, but tech and small-caps pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh all-time highs.

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

S&P 500 EPS estimates started 2026 at +14.4%. Now tracking +28.6%.

The engine? Chips and memory.

$MU +18% today. Semis are translating AI capex into real earnings — and the revision velocity is why equities grind to ATHs despite a 30-yr yield near 5%.

$MU is the clearest proof of concept. HBM demand from AI accelerators has flipped memory from a cyclical commodity into a structural growth story. When the biggest buyer (hyperscalers) is capacity-constrained, pricing power follows. That's a different MU than 2022.

The risk into H2: chip revision cycles can stall fast if hyperscaler capex guidance softens. Watch $DELL and $ZS tonight — enterprise AI adoption is the demand bridge between hyperscaler spend and broad earnings growth. If that holds, semis stay in the driver's seat.

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

$NVDA data center revenue hit $75.2B last quarter — up 92% YoY and now 92% of total sales. Jensen Huang: "Agentic AI has arrived." Q2 guidance came in $4B above consensus. The AI infrastructure cycle isn't slowing — it's accelerating.

For context: $NVDA's total revenue was $81.6B — meaning nearly ALL of Nvidia's business is now data center. Gaming, automotive, everything else is rounding error. This is no longer a chip company. It's the backbone of the global AI build-out.

Separately, $WMT reports before the open this morning as a read on consumer health under tariff pressure, and oil is sliding ~0.6% on Iran diplomacy optimism.

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

$NVDA beats earnings, $1.87 eps actual vs $1.78 expected

Revenue: $81.6B (85% YoY, 20% QoQ), vs est $79.1B
Net Income: $45.5B (139% YoY, -3% QoQ), vs est $43.1B
Net Margin: 55.8%
Capex: $1.8B (43% YoY, 3% QoQ), vs est $1.9B
Free Cash Flow: $48.6B (86% YoY, -4% QoQ), vs est $47.5B
EPS: $1.87 (140% YoY, 15% QoQ), vs est $1.78

Key Highlights: Blackwell architecture has been adopted and deployed by every major hyperscaler, cloud provider, and model builder. Announced a new $80B share repurchase authorization on top of the ~$39B remaining. Increased the quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share. Vera Rubin remains fully on track for the second half of this year, starting in Q3.

Outlook: Q2 FY27 revenue is guided to $91.0 billion (+/- 2%), well above consensus expectations, while non-GAAP gross margin is projected to hold at 75.0% (+/- 50 bps).

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

30-year yields at 18-year highs. Rate hike odds near 50%. Yet Nasdaq futures are up 0.67% this morning.

All eyes on $NVDA after the close — analysts expect +120% EPS growth on ~$43B revenue.

Today: macro risk vs. AI euphoria. One of them blinks tonight.

$NVDA has averaged a ±9% post-earnings swing since the AI buildout began. With a ~$3.5T market cap, that's $300B+ in potential value movement either way.

A beat alone won't cut it. Blackwell ramp guidance and hyperscaler capex commentary are what traders are actually watching.

[Asset Analysis @asset_analysis]

$NVDA +4.4% yesterday on H200 China approvals. Reality check: zero chips shipped. Chinese firms pulled back on Beijing guidance — they're steering toward Huawei alternatives instead. Markets may be pricing a revenue event that hasn't arrived yet. Worth watching.

Also on the tape today: April industrial production & capacity utilization (Fed G.17 release). Capacity util has been running below its long-run avg — currently ~75.7%. A miss here adds to the "soft manufacturing" narrative. Another reason the rally deserves scrutiny.